Fox's **Final 5 BOWL GAMES - Picks and Analysis**

Question

The rest of my bowl picks will be in this thread. BOL, lets finish on a strong note!

1unit = $500

1/3 Cotton Bowl

$2000 Oregon -7 (-120) **Max Bet**

I know, two nights in a row I'm backing the public fav. Very rare for myself to be doing this especially with a team as good as Kansas St. has proven to be. You can throw strength of schedule at me. But how did that work out last night with FL who had the #1 SOS in the country compared to Louisville #105. The coaching aspect in this game evens itself out as we have 2 of the best in the nation, although Bill Snyder has done it for a longer period of time. When I look at games tho, it comes down to match ups for me, and as much as I'd like to jump on the dog here with the 7.5, I just can't do it for a number of reasons.

First let's look at that Oregon game vs. Stanford, since I know this is going to be a topic of discussion and big reason why people are going to jump on K St. Just so everyone knows, I actually had a max bet on Stanford in that game and a unit on the ML. As we know now, Stanford was very underrated IMO, and has proven they are one of the best teams in the nation. Oregon threw away opportunity after opportunity in that game. They missed two 40 fg, turned the ball over on downs 2-3 times in Stanford territory and one of those was at the 5 yard line. They were also 4-17 on 3rd down , which is I'm willing to bet the worst for them all year. They played their worst game of the year and yet still had a 7 point lead in the 4th qtr. Stanford has some of the most athletic LB in the country and plays a 3-4 defense for that reason. Those LB can stop the run up the middle, and have the speed to get to the outside. Kansas St on the other hand, runs a 4-3 defense and the Lb core doesn't come close to the speed and athleticism of Stanfords. The K St defensive line is good overall, but again doesn't compare to that of Stanfords, and will struggle to keep the speed of Oregon in check. As you saw with Baylor, K st just didn't have enough on defense to keep up with everything Baylor threw at them.

Jfox6546 · Answer

The rest of my bowl picks will be in this thread. BOL, lets finish on a strong note!

1unit = $500

1/3 Cotton Bowl

$2000 Oregon -7 (-120) **Max Bet**

I know, two nights in a row I'm backing the public fav. Very rare for myself to be doing this especially with a team as good as Kansas St. has proven to be. You can throw strength of schedule at me. But how did that work out last night with FL who had the #1 SOS in the country compared to Louisville #105. The coaching aspect in this game evens itself out as we have 2 of the best in the nation, although Bill Snyder has done it for a longer period of time. When I look at games tho, it comes down to match ups for me, and as much as I'd like to jump on the dog here with the 7.5, I just can't do it for a number of reasons.

First let's look at that Oregon game vs. Stanford, since I know this is going to be a topic of discussion and big reason why people are going to jump on K St. Just so everyone knows, I actually had a max bet on Stanford in that game and a unit on the ML. As we know now, Stanford was very underrated IMO, and has proven they are one of the best teams in the nation. Oregon threw away opportunity after opportunity in that game. They missed two 40 fg, turned the ball over on downs 2-3 times in Stanford territory and one of those was at the 5 yard line. They were also 4-17 on 3rd down , which is I'm willing to bet the worst for them all year. They played their worst game of the year and yet still had a 7 point lead in the 4th qtr. Stanford has some of the most athletic LB in the country and plays a 3-4 defense for that reason. Those LB can stop the run up the middle, and have the speed to get to the outside. Kansas St on the other hand, runs a 4-3 defense and the Lb core doesn't come close to the speed and athleticism of Stanfords. The K St defensive line is good overall, but again doesn't compare to that of Stanfords, and will struggle to keep the speed of Oregon in check. As you saw with Baylor, K st just didn't have enough on defense to keep up with everything Baylor threw at them.

Jfox6546 · Answer

K St may be able to get a couple stops early, but Oregon will eventually find a mis match and expose it the rest of the game. In the end there are just too many playmakers on that Oregon offense for Kansas St to handle. May I also note that in the Stanford game, Stanfors pressed these Oregon recovers and played physical with them. This had a big part in disrupting the timing and Oregon didn't find an answer soon enough. Kansas st tho on defense likes to play soft and throw a lot of zones at their opponent, so it will be interesting to see what Snyder decides to do here. If he decides to press, look out there could be some big pass plays overtop as again I don't think K St has the speed to handle Oregon. Then again if Kansas St sits in their zone scheme again, we could see what happened to them against Baylor.

Oregons defense is also one of the most undderated in the country. You can't simply look at this teams stats on defense because for the most part, they were winning by 4 TD at halftime and completely dominating their opponent. This led to a lot of garbage yards for their opponents in the second half of games. This Oregon front 7 is one of the most versatile in the nation, and without Kansas st having a huge threat in their passing game overtop, Oregon will make these Wr beat them. I also would like to note that Oregon struggled in that Stanford game with TE Zach Ertz. He proves he's a mis match for any team, but Oregon simply could not match up with him. The Oregon secondary is built with speed and Zach Ertz was too big for them to handle. Ertz had 11 rec. for over 100 yards in that game, and was huge for Stanford on passing downs. Kansas St doesn't have that type of threat on offense, and their leading TE only has 22 rec. for the entire year. The WR core for Kansas St is overall small and built for speed, and Oregon matches up very well against them. Klein isn't a great passer and he will struggle getting completions down the field in tight windows in this one as well.

To me, Kansas St is just going to have trouble keeping pace with Oregon here. I do think Kansas st can have some success with the power run game and Klein running the ball, but once Oregon breaks a couple of quick TD's on offense they might be forced to try and throw it more and the game may get away from them. Turnovers can also be the deciding factor and both teams must focus on not giving it away, as each defense has forced more than 30 turnovers this year. (k st 31. Oregon 39). I think K st can match a TD or two early, but Oregon starts pulling away either late 2nd or early 3rd qtr here. Should be fun game to watch and lots of scoring. Oregon wins 49-31

b18swim · Answer

I love that play tonight Jfox...keep up the good work

DanTos8715 · Answer

Cotton?

Nucci74 · Answer

GL Bro

Jfox6546 · Answer

Lmao woops

Macwestie1 · Answer

Let&#x27;s do this GL JFOX

coachemup40 · Answer

with you on every point. to me the deciding factor is speed,speed,speed.snyder is a great coach, but there is no way to outcoach speed and the short time between plays with oregon emphasizes that to a defensive team. love k.state cause i live in okla, but no match for the ducks.

bookiekilla · Answer

I am going to ride with you again tonite.  Let&#x27;s get back our FLA money tonite!  Good luck to us!

BPosey28 · Answer

Hey Fox,

-8 is -110 on 5Dimes right now. What would you suggest I do?

You see this line moving back down to -7.5 (-110) which I would then be able to get -7 at -120?

-7 is -136 on dimes right now. Is this a terrible bet?

dcowboys · Answer

I&#39;m glad we&#39;re on the same page. GL Fox

Jfox6546 · Answer

Yea -136 too much juice, Not sure if you&#x27;ll get to -7.5, if anything I see those getting bought up with the public backing Oregon. -8 should be ok, as well. I bought it Down cause 7.5 is a dumb number to stay when I can get to a TD for cheap.

BPosey28 · Answer

Thanks Fox!

pimpudottcom · Answer

I LOVE IT!!!

Drbug2000 · Answer

Thank you Fox, you Rock!!!

holydiver · Answer

HEY FOXXY BOL TO YOU BUDDY!! I AM ALL OVER THAT OREGON HIGH OCTANE "MONEY LINE"

Nucci74 · Answer

Good hit bro loved the write up

atovar01 · Answer

Great job again FOX your the man!!!!! If you ever in Cali let me know I have season tickets for the Raiders pick a game next season and it&#x27;s yours!!!!!!

DrGreek · Answer

good job my friend

hoku808pc · Answer

Nice call today Fox!!! &#xD;&#xA;I am glad I didnt take the pts today because I just felt it was too good to be true getting Kst at over a TD... &#xD;&#xA;Aloha

Wizerguy · Answer

Nice hit brother

shark_apreza · Answer

NICE HIT, considering u had no idea this wasnt the cotton bowl

Fox's Final 5 BOWL GAMES - Picks and Analysis

Hot Forum Topics