COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2 ZITI (26)

I abandoning the model (too many games)

GOOD LUCK TO ALL WHO FOLLOW

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 11TH (MAY WE NEVER FORGET)

Rutgers +3.5 — 2 Units

I’m taking Rutgers with the points because BC’s Week 1 offense left too much to be desired. The Eagles put up 388 total yards against Cincinnati but managed only 15 points, were shut out in the first half, and Mason McKenzie completed just 51.4% of his passes with an interception. That is not the type of offense I want to trust laying more than a field goal.

Rutgers has concerns after the UMass loss, especially stopping the run, but the passing game still produced 319 yards and 21 points. With AJ Surace taking over at quarterback, Rutgers should have more upside than what we saw in Week 1. BC’s defense allowed 254 rushing yards and 34 points last week, so the Scarlet Knights have a clear opportunity to stay competitive throughout.

Both teams are 0–1, both have major flaws, and this feels much closer to a toss-up than a BC win by 4+ points. Rutgers also won the most recent matchup in Chestnut Hill, 22–21. Give me the Scarlet Knights +3.5 for 2 units

Richmond / NC State Over 50.5 — 1 Unit

I’m playing the over because this number is asking for 51 points in a spot where both teams have paths to contribute. Richmond comes in 2–0 and is averaging 31.5 points with 340.5 yards per game, led by QB Ashten Snelsire’s 460 passing yards and six touchdowns through two games. The Spiders should be able to put enough offense on the board to avoid needing NC State to score all 51 by itself.

NC State’s Week 1 result was rough—just eight points and 168 total yards against Virginia—but that also creates a bounce-back spot at home against an FCS opponent. Richmond has allowed points in both games, and NC State has the talent advantage to find rhythm, create short fields, and put up a number after last week’s offensive dud.

This can get there with something like a 38–17 or 41–14 final. I expect NC State to be much more aggressive early, while Richmond has shown enough scoring ability to help push this past the total. Over 50.5 for 1 unit.

GOD BLESS THE USA

GOOD LUCK & WIN A LOT OF ZITI

Good Luck

I was in the city that day.Real bedlam. The 2nd plane flew right over my brother in laws head and a friend in the neighborhood was one of the fireman who didn't make it out.My daughter and one of his sons are still good friends.

SORRY HEAR ABOUT THIS...MAY HE REST IN PEACE 

SATURDAY 9-12

SMU -29 (-109) — 3U
SMU is coming off a 27-24 road win over Florida State, and the Mustangs put up 585 total yards in that opener. The passing game was the biggest edge, with SMU averaging 430 passing yards and nearly 12 yards per attempt. UC Davis has started 2-0 and has been productive offensively, but this is a major step up in class and a tough spot going on the road to Dallas against a ranked SMU team coming off an ACC win. I’m looking for SMU’s explosiveness through the air to create separation early and for the depth gap to show over four quarters.

LSU -35.5 (+100) — 3U
LSU is laying a big number, but this is a spot where the talent gap is difficult to ignore. The Tigers are a 35.5-point favorite at home against Louisiana Tech, with the market pricing LSU around a 99% straight-up win probability. Louisiana Tech did open with an 80-6 win over Northwestern State, but this is a completely different level of athlete and environment in Tiger Stadium. LSU should be able to generate short fields, hit explosive plays, and turn this into a game where Louisiana Tech has trouble sustaining enough offense to keep pace. I’ll take the plus-money price and trust LSU to handle business.

Nebraska -30.5 (-107) — 3U
Nebraska opened the season 1-0 while Bowling Green enters this matchup 0-1, and the Cornhuskers are now laying 30.5 at Memorial Stadium. The moneyline tells you how wide the gap is perceived to be: Nebraska is around -10,000, while Bowling Green is listed as high as +3,500. This is a matchup where Nebraska should own the line of scrimmage, play from ahead, and let its defense create favorable field position all night. With Bowling Green already coming off a loss and Nebraska at home in a prime get-right spot, I’m betting the Huskers turn a comfortable win into a four-score margin.

Oregon/OK State UNDER 55.5 (-110) — 2U
The under comes down to Oklahoma State’s ability to score against Oregon’s defense. The Cowboys scored only 10 points in their opener, while Oregon allowed 27, but the Ducks limited opponents to just 274 total yards and 181 passing yards in that game. Oklahoma State also averaged only 4.92 yards per pass attempt, compared with Oregon’s 9.95, and threw two interceptions. Oregon can certainly move the ball—497 total yards and 34 points in its opener—but a huge road favorite often creates a second-half game script where the leading team leans on the run and shortens the game. I see Oklahoma State doing too little offensively for this total to clear 56.

Nevada +3.5 (-110) — 2U
Nevada is catching 3.5 at home against Montana State after opening the year with a convincing 49-14 win over Western Kentucky. That result matters because Nevada showed it can produce offense and finish drives, rather than merely survive as a home underdog. Montana State is 2-0 and deserves respect, but this number gives Nevada the key hook through a field goal in what should be a competitive matchup. I like the Wolf Pack’s confidence after a 35-point opening win, the home field, and the value of getting more than three points in a game that profiles as tight late.

GOOD LUCK & WIN A LOT OF ZITI