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College Football - opening night thursday - games Im betting.....

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

I've noticed on this thread and some others, there were only a couple very brief comments about the teams or games, whereas general theory and financial rules related responses get very detailed. Not that there is anything wrong with this and it's apparent many enjoy these type of discussions, just an observation.
 
Seems improbable those posting large volumes on various subjects actually have time to research teams, read 119 fall camp reports and handicap matchups to the fullest. Probably some manage to do this, while others not so much.
 
 


thats mainly why im even on this site is to get info already researched.. im somewhat of a trolling plagurizer but due to time constraints i am unbale to do the required "what i thinks requires" amout of research per game... and look for little niches and hot tips time to time
 
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Posted: #77
GL THURSDAY MAN .... THOSE LOOK GOOD 
 
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Posted: #78
Most people dont look at average starting position and also average opposition starting position on kickoffs - how many times have you had a game and after it starts you curse yourself because your kicker gives it to the other team on their own 40 every time they kickoff?  These things are trackable. 
 
When Parcells coached the Jets years ago, he stressed "hidden" yardage that does not appear in the boxscore, and how important it was to be on the positve side of the ledger in order to win a game. 
 
It is trackable, (after kickoffs, punts, turnovers) but it takes awhile since you have to scoll through play-by-play accounts to determine where every possesion began. I use a YPP model that determines a teams' offensive & defensive efficiency that speeds up the process for now.
 
BOL this year.
 
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Posted: #79
Bold play taking Mississippi State vanzack. LSU held Notre Dame to 14 in the Bowl Game last season. They have the best defense in the NCAA returning 8 defensive starters. Miss State has no O line to speak of. On offense the new LSU O cordinator is bringing more flair to the offense. They are predicted to be even more explosive than last season. Everything points to LSU here. Sometimes when that happens the unusual happens though. Anway, I predict 34-10 LSU. I hope you have a nice season. I probably just told you things that you already knew. Oh well.
 
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Posted: #80
People who think that LSU will have an "explosive offense" don't know Gary Crowton. he got run out of BYU after rendering their offense impotent, then saw Oregon's offense steadily get worse during his tenure there. Lsu has tons of talent, but if people think LSU will be explosive because of the addition of Crowton, I'll beg to differ.
 
Now, having said that, my guess is that they'll only have to put up 21-24 at most to cover this game depending on where the spread ends up. That's not really asking much.
 
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Posted: #81
I can certainly see why anyone would want to take 18 points on a home dog in an SEC game, especially in week 1.  I can make a case for why the line is under 20, and I can make the case for why it should be closer to 25. 
 
I'll probably start saying this a lot this year, but my username comes from the name I used for online gambling and didnt want to many things to recall.  I'm very objective when it comes to LSU and even posted 4 plays against LSU in '05 when they went 3-1 SU but they went 0-4  ATS at home.  (Tenn, UF, AU, and Ark). 
 
I know what Crowton did at LA Tech, BYU, and Oregon.  The offensive production problems at Oregon late in the year are worth noting.  Miles is an offensive guy so it will be interesting to see what the LSU offense looks like.  Just as it will be interesting to see what FSU looks like with Jimbo Fisher at the helm at FSU.  
 
I'll be the first to argue that the past 10 year record of LSU VS MISS ST is a worthless stat.  The talent between the two teams is worlds apart.  I think there is great value with LSU at any number under 20.  Anything can happen, but the odds of a blowout have to favor LSU in this case. 
 
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Posted: #82
GL this week vanzack...
 
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Posted: #83
Good luck Vanzack, you may know me as sirwinzalot on other forums.  Love the Mississippi State play, one of my plays I have been planning all along.  Will take 17.5 at a minimum, seeing if I can get more than 18.  Let's cash it bro!
 
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Posted: #84
Brassknux, I guess we will see Thursday night. I didn't invent what I said about them being exlplosive. That is the word coming out of LSU. If I am wrong than so is a ton of so called experts. Incluiding the LSU coaching staff. There is a major talent difference with LSU compared to BYU. With all that said, I still feel like it is the LSU defense that should man handle the pathetic Miss St. offense.
 
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Posted: #85
gl van
 
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Posted: #86
Van: Off the subject, what visa gift card did you use for pokerstars?
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by birdsword:

Brassknux, I guess we will see Thursday night. I didn't invent what I said about them being exlplosive. That is the word coming out of LSU. If I am wrong than so is a ton of so called experts. Incluiding the LSU coaching staff. There is a major talent difference with LSU compared to BYU. With all that said, I still feel like it is the LSU defense that should man handle the pathetic Miss St. offense.

 

Oh, no dig at you BW, lots of people have been saying that, and I didn't even mean to intimate that you said it at all. I think some observers are still equating Crowton with the offense he ran with two NFL talents(Rattay/Edwards) in a weak league back at La Tech instead of his most recent bodies of work. As I mentioned before, I think Miss St is going to get worked anyway, just begging to differ with the people that assume the mix of talent at LSU and Crowton will automatically set the SEC ablaze.

 
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Posted: #88
any Saturday plays in the mix yet Van?
 
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Posted: #89
Excellent info as always Van,.... unfortunately it takes me back to all those horrible statistics classes I took in college.  Who knew that info could be so valuable.  Ha Ha
Good luck this season!
 
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Posted: #90
 
 Good to see ya posting, always check your picks; gl this year.
 
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Posted: #91
love those picks van...i'm thinking about playing it safe and doing a 3 team teaser w/ redhawks+13, LSU -11, Utah St. +13.5......i don't have a huge bankroll just yet, so i want to get my feet wet with this one.   What do you think??
 to a great year and best of
 
 
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Posted: #92
 this year Van !
 
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Posted: #93
GL bro....on a few of those as well
 
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Posted: #94
 
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Posted: #95
Liking Miami OH and Kent - GL
People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
 
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Posted: #96
Van - Would your play of MSU be considered a public fade play?
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by L8kersFan74:

Van - Would your play of MSU be considered a public fade play?


No, he already said he doesn't get caught up in analyzing line/money movements, and generally disregards them.
 
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Posted: #98

Quote Originally Posted by Primetime02:



No, he already said he doesn't get caught up in analyzing line/money movements, and generally disregards them.

Sorry, but, the question was not addressed to you. If I wanted to ask you a question I would go to YOUR thread and ask. Have a good day and GL!

 
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Posted: #99
Question, why does everyone like Kent St.?  i personally see the cyclones playing quite well tonight.
 
 
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Posted: #100
gl man
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