Posted:
#51
Van - Thanks for the detailed response. Its clear from most of your posts that you are purposeful and disciplined about what you do.
Your post has me thinking which for me usually leads to more questions. No need for a quick response, but if you get time here are some thoughts/observations I had while reading your email (my guess is that most are obvious so please take them as clarifying questions rather than suggestions).
+ I remember you commenting about finding teams with variance in another thread as well. It makes sense as those would probably be games that a true outcome line would be further off than the betting line. I know you said that you use 7 points but I'm thinking all points are not equal. For example, if a team is dogged by 3 but wins outright by 3 -- that seems more significant than a 24 point fave winning by 34 doesn't it? What about looking at more peripheral stats that aren't as summative as points scored to determine variance (not sure what these are in football yet but I imagine it might be yards gained, time of possesion, etc)? I totally agree with the concept and think I already use it unconsciencely. I am glad you brought it up though as I plan to be more intentional about it in the future.
+ Once you figure out a team with high variance -- does that mean you bet for them or against them? My guess is you'll say it depends on the line and therefore a high variance fave is often a no play where a high variance dog likely has more value. Is this on the right track?
+ What have you found to be a predictor of high variance in football? The effect of turnovers would be something that jumps to my mind immediately that would have a huge affect on results but may not be a very predictive in terms of a team being able to continually expect those big plays. Therefore a team with a high/low TO differential may be primed to go the other way. Thoughts? Other stats that you use?
+ I really haven't dug into college football stats as much as baseball but I'm very interested. You mention yards per play both offense/defense and pass/rush. Is there a way/site that calculates these relative to competiton? I frequent the footballoutsiders website quite a bit for NFL info but I'm not sure where to go for that kind of analytical analysis in the college game.
+ The ESPN angle is another one that I need to be more intentional about as that has to often have more of an effect on people's perceptions than it does on the actual game. Thanks for bringing it up.
+ You mention blowouts that aren't really blowouts at the end of the thread -- I think that goes back to an earlier question I had. It seems to me that one of the best ways to cap might be to peel through each boxscore by looking at what the teams power ranking was prior to the game and then looking at total yards, TO's, TOP, and score and then determining which scores look most "off" based on the other stats. Thoughts?
Again, no hurry but your input is always appreciated.
I haven't played anything yet for week 1 but after looking at power ratings and digging into some of the team previews I'm thinking Kent St. is my favorite play of opening night so I'm glad you're on it.
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But, is your football season goal - oriented like baseball was OR are you in football for the long haul?
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