College Football - opening night thursday - games Im betting.....

Dr Atomic is stalker #4254 on the vanzack stalker list.

His favorite tactic is to absolutely make shit up, and not even acknowledge it when proven wrong, and just make up something new.

I, like you, love bashing because it makes the thread fun.  I call it "mental masturbation".

Quote Originally Posted by L8kersFan74:

The more I think about it I'm real curious to know why that Utah St. line went down from 9.5 to 7.....something's gotta be up there.

What are your thoughts Van? Assessment of this game? Reasoning for taking the 7?

Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8:

 

van - I'm not sure I've ever noticed you play totals.  Do you rule them out?  I'd be interested to hear if you had a quantitative model on totals as well.

 

Never play totals.

I do have a unit goal, but unlike MLB my goal in NCAAF is to "reassess" after I hit it.  I normally go all the way through bowl season no matter what.

l8kersfan74 - my thoughts on why the line went from 9.5 to 7 is simply that more money has been bet on Ut St than UNLV.  One thing is very consistent about me and that is that you will never hear me speculate on the line movements with regards to who is betting what.  I dont want to open a whole argument about this, but my view is that the books are matching action period - and therefore in this case there has been early money on Utah St.

But dont overestimate it.  This early, a 50K difference would move the line this much.  So its not like a line moving 2 points on gameday, these early lines move very quickly on light action.

UNLV has lost 3 of their 5 offensive linemen, including their center to graduation.  That is a big factor.  This early in the season I put a high value on returning lineman on both sides of the ball, and that importance goes down as the season moves on.

I handicap to a line.  I set my line, and compare it to the available line.  I had this game as UNLV -4, and the line was 8 so I grabbed it.  At +7, my model (and it has some softness to it, its not all statistics) had the game at a 55.8% chance of covering.  AT +8, it was 57%.

My approach is to come up with my own line based on handicapping (not what I think a betting line should be to match action, but what a line should be for a true 50/50 outcome), and based upon current lines, in that particular game with all of the factors considered, come up with an expected win percentage based on the difference of the 2 lines.  If that win percentage is above 55% I bet the game.  If it is above 61% I will often put 1.5 units on the game.

Hope that helps.

Usually, the cutoff is about 4 point variance for early in the season, down to about 2 points late in the season.

Utah st had a 4 point variance this week for me.

How did you pull that off?

You beat me to the question by about an hour. Ifyou look at Vanzack's location, it is now Barbados. I guess that must mean that his ISP is not US based.

Sorry to butt in, vanzack, but I was curious too.

Here's to another excellent season for you. Our thought processes on picking CFB  are similar, hence - if you win - I will probabaly win also.

Nothing for me yet in week one. Awaiting Matchbook.

Quote Originally Posted by baarrn:

van - Its good to see you getting your plays out there again this season.  Many of us have learned more from you regarding capping and the industry than you could imagine.

I'm very interested in learning how to set more accurate lines based on outcome (rather than splitting action).  I know you mentioned there is some softness in your lines (is this just gut feel?) but I'm also curious what statistics you use and place the most weight on.  If you'd rather keep most of it under wraps I understand, but I figure you're the best place to start if I want to get serious about capping football.

BOL this fall. 

I would say it is 50% gut feel and 50% some kind of analytical analysis.  One of the most important forms of analysis I make is variance (basically standard deviation) for certain teams and certain situations.

I made a post a year or so back about in order to be a successful handicapper it is important to somehow track and analyze not only your wins, but by how much you win.  I call it the "critical gap".  In football, the critical gap for me is 7 points of the spread.  And what I mean by this is that I do not consider it to be a good win unless I won by more than 7 points of the spread, and the more the better.

So when capping I look for situations and teams with high variances.  I dont want to be betting a game that is going to land within 1 score of the spread either way, those are the games I want to avoid as does every good capper.  I have developed certain statistics (medium on the complicated scale) over the years that I feel point out games and teams that give me a better chance of not falling in to the critical gap.

That is one of the main statistical analysis I use, but I use others too.  One big one that is simple but often overlooked is simple yards per play broken down by passing and running, and then defensive yards per play too.  Most people dont look at average starting position and also average opposition starting position on kickoffs - how many times have you had a game and after it starts you curse yourself because your kicker gives it to the other team on their own 40 every time they kickoff?  These things are trackable.  Other good things are yards to points ratios.

Then comes gut.  And the gut is often not telling me who will win, but why I should look for a team to be favored by more or less than they should.  For instance, a team is playing on Monday night and the announcers make a big deal out of something that I feel is immaterial to outcome.  This actually has an effect on the line the next week, because you hear it repeated all week on ESPN and elsewhere.  Is Terrell Owens disatisfaction with the cowboys coaching staff really worth 2 points in the line?  If you follow the drama on TV it sounds like it is, but it should have zero effect on the outcome of the game.  That is one example, but there are many others too like misleading scores (blowouts that were late in the game or not earned), big public teams, and the classic NFL team that looks horrid one week and everyone assumes they suck only to play like SB champs the next.

So in a nutshell, I try to come up with games that have a good chance of having a big variance from the spread, and then I try to have the team that is going to be on the right side of that variance.

I will be the first to tell you that I am not a world class handicapper and that is not where I make my money.  I have said it many times, I make a very good living by squeezing every penny out of every bet I make, and by going between 55 and 59% handicapping.  Im not the guy who is going to go 68% for the year. 

But I am the guy who will make more money going 55% than the guy who goes 68%.

Baarn I always enjoy your posts and think you are one of the best consistent reads on covers.  I read everything you write, and have learned a ton from you as should everyone else here.  You are a diamond in the rough here at covers.

Im not talking about someone who is disciplined and flat betting.  I was making the compariison of my methods vs the average guy who even if they went 60%, would still lose money because of terrible MM.

My point is that because of juice reduction and MM, I am able to make more money at 55% than an average gambler does with bad juice reduction and MM at 60%.

It was just a generalization.