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Bowl thread 2010....

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Posts: 263

zmas13

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 12:14 PM ET #151

Here's my paste from Badlands thread...........

The field has turf does it not. I think a soaked field favors Boise greatly. Combine a solid running game with QB Moore's very accurate passing in short and medium routes, and I think you'll see Utah's defense slipping all over the place. Conversely, Boise's defense has much less to cover, given the week offense offered by Utah of late. Bottom line I like the tease on this one....

Boise -10 1/2 & Under 63 1/2...........

vanzack

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 12:23 PM ET #152

Quote Originally Posted by zmas13:

Here's my paste from Badlands thread...........

Boise -10 1/2 & Under 63 1/2...........

That could happen, but I just see more variance introduced in to the picture, and I like having 17 points in that type of situation. I think you are ignoring the fact that a wet ball also means possible turnovers, slipping etc for BOTH teams, which evens the playing field a little bit.

Anyway, GL - and it goes to show you can have several different opinions of looking at the same thing.

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RJSizzle

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Posts: 6091

Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 12:24 PM ET #153

Quote Originally Posted by zmas13:

Here's my paste from Badlands thread...........

Boise -10 1/2 & Under 63 1/2...........

Teasing a college football total

Thats rich

isaacssk

Prospect

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Posts: 79

Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 12:53 PM ET #154

-17 is a huge number to cover and has seems like a gift wrapped backdoor cover. That being said, I agree with Van about not being surprised with a Boise blow out. One of the stats that stands out to me in this game is the 103 ranked Ute punt team. Despite the weather, Boise on a short field early in the game sounds good. I am normally not much of a quarter bettor but -3.5 1Q seems like the best bargain providing Boise plays with the tenacity they are capable of in the opening moments.

SportsFreak69

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 12:57 PM ET #155

Broncos

Good Luck tonight

hammer22

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 1:47 PM ET #156

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

My thoughts on Utah....

Boise is scary - not on offense - but because of their defense. They are the best statistical defense in the country, EVEN AFTER ADJUSTING FOR SCHEDULE STRENGTH. That is not good.

My numbers have it right at -17, but I am betting this because of gut and what I feel has to be a horrible spot for Boise. I cant make a case for Utah by comparing X's and O's, or by any stat - the only case I make is what I think will be a huge letdown spot for Boise (for all of the obvious reasons), and a huge overachieving spot for Utah.

I realize this is a "soft" debate for taking a side in which I think the spread is just about right, but 17 points with a very motivated solid team will do it for me.

Would I be surprised if Boise beat them 52-7? Nope. But I would be more surprised if Utah doesnt keeps it tight all game.

Everyone keeps talking about how Boise will not have any motivation and this and that.....how about all the seniors playing in their last game ever as a college player.....how about a bowl game on National TV....how about the fact that they realized they are not playing in a big time bowl weeks and weeks ago and they are over it and won't have an impact tonight.....how about they have one of the best coaches in the country to get his boys ready AND MOTIVATED.

How can you bet against a team HOPING they do not bring their A game after weeks of preperation....because we all know if Boise plays to their potential tonight it will be a blowout. Boise comes to play and rolls.

PGram13

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 1:49 PM ET #157

BOL this week Van, and have a Merry Christmas!

KittyKatz286

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Posts: 1988

Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 2:13 PM ET #158

A couple weeks ago, I did a 3 team teaser involving Boise. With the first 2 having already won, I have Boise at -6.5 for tonight's game. Should I consider putting a little juice on Utah at +17 and try and hit the middle or is -6.5 a very safe line for Boise that I should ride out?

vanzack

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 3:12 PM ET #159

Quote Originally Posted by hammer22:

Everyone keeps talking about how Boise will not have any motivation and this and that.....how about all the seniors playing in their last game ever as a college player.....how about a bowl game on National TV....how about the fact that they realized they are not playing in a big time bowl weeks and weeks ago and they are over it and won't have an impact tonight.....how about they have one of the best coaches in the country to get his boys ready AND MOTIVATED.

How can you bet against a team HOPING they do not bring their A game after weeks of preperation....because we all know if Boise plays to their potential tonight it will be a blowout. Boise comes to play and rolls.

Look - like I said - reading motivation is a little like reading tea leaves - everyone sees something a little bit different.

I like +17 points. If it was 10 or 12, I wouldnt like it. I just think it is too many points.

But I cant argue iwth your statements, I dont have a crystal ball.

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vanzack

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 3:14 PM ET #160

Quote Originally Posted by KittyKatz286:

A couple weeks ago, I did a 3 team teaser involving Boise. With the first 2 having already won, I have Boise at -6.5 for tonight's game. Should I consider putting a little juice on Utah at +17 and try and hit the middle or is -6.5 a very safe line for Boise that I should ride out?

Honestly, if I could get Boise at -6.5 for a straight bet tonight I would have a big play on them. I think the correct line tonight is about 13, so given that you have -6.5 - you are in a very good posiition.

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ApocalypseLater

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 3:15 PM ET #161

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I would have them favored over anyone even after their loss to Nevada!

I didnt see your thread or I would have defended you, but winnning a debate at covers is like coming in second place at a satellite poker tournament. In the end, who cares?

good point! the Nevada game changed my opinion more of Nevada than it did Boise... and i keep a very detailed spreadsheet of performance ratings... Boise is only behind Oregon, and even with TCU and Auburn on my final rankings...

could have used a voice of reason in that debate, but it's water under the bridge...

vanzack

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 3:17 PM ET #162

BTW - if you are a Utah buyer tonight - I wouldnt be too surprised to see -14 before gametime.

Once the news of the weather spreads, the line is going to continue to drop. Im in at +17, but the current line is 15.5 and moving south.

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HolyBull

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 3:51 PM ET #163

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

BTW - if you are a Utah buyer tonight - I wouldnt be too surprised to see -14 before gametime.

Once the news of the weather spreads, the line is going to continue to drop. Im in at +17, but the current line is 15.5 and moving south.

Got in @17 myself too........Good Luck tonight!

willydollas

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 4:00 PM ET #164

Van, no way this hits 14. weather does look like it will be too bad. Just a light rain with no wind.

SteelHop

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Posts: 748

Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 4:21 PM ET #165

Quote Originally Posted by CASTORTROY:

AL-

A 30 point win won't work in the eyes of the public- but it will ease the pain of the players and coaches from Boise State. They will not mess around with this team-DO NOT BET on UTAH because you think their will be a lack of motivation from Boise. That is all I am saying.

But it is hard for players to get up to "beat another team by 30" as a motivation in bowl games. Otherwise, the same could be said about Bama/Utah two years ago. Just isn't the same as we are playing for respect by beating Bama, OU, etc. There just isn't that here. If Boise blows out Utah, that gets them really nothing.

However, Utah has some motivation here by demonstrating they are better than Boise but also show the two games TCU/Nd were flukes.

SteelHop

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 4:25 PM ET #166

As an aside

Boise in bowl games when favored in the last 10 years is

4-1 SU

2-3 ATS

1-3 ATS when favored by double digits (only cover was against Iowa St and all three ATS losses are to non-BCS teams)

SteelHop

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 4:29 PM ET #167

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

... Boise is only behind Oregon, and even with TCU and

One team actually played all three of these teams - Oregon St.

The results were

TCU beating OSU 30-21 in what amounts to a home game in Texas Stadium

Boise beating OSU 36-24 at home

Oregon beating OSU on the road 37-20.

While nothing can every be transitve between games - Oregon is a better than that the other two by about 10 points based on the home/home/away wins comparison.

Hugh_Jass

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 4:37 PM ET #168

GL Van,liked the +17 myself.

ApocalypseLater

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 5:08 PM ET #169

Quote Originally Posted by SteelHop:

One team actually played all three of these teams - Oregon St.

The results were

TCU beating OSU 30-21 in what amounts to a home game in Texas Stadium

Boise beating OSU 36-24 at home

Oregon beating OSU on the road 37-20.

While nothing can every be transitve between games - Oregon is a better than that the other two by about 10 points based on the home/home/away wins comparison.

i have Oregon 5 pts better than Boise... which is probably about right, if they were to play with equal motivation on a neutral field... 10 pts is definitely high... Auburn is actually about 2 pts better than Boise, due to their last game blowout win... according to my ratings...

ApocalypseLater

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Posts: 4260

Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 5:21 PM ET #170

Quote Originally Posted by SteelHop:

Oregon is a better than that the other two by about 10 points based on the home/home/away wins comparison.

you actually make a good point in the home/away comparison... based on raw scores, Boise is even with Oregon and ahead of Auburn... but when factoring in home/away comparisons, Boise drops below them...

gcnmoo

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Posted: Dec. 22, 2010 - 5:26 PM ET #171

Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

i have Oregon 5 pts better than Boise... which is probably about right, if they were to play with equal motivation on a neutral field... 10 pts is definitely high... Auburn is actually about 2 pts better than Boise, due to their last game blowout win... according to my ratings...

If I got 5 pts with boise over oregon that might be my play of the year!!