Notice most all op-outs are from teams not going anywhere.
Yeah that UNC D prob needed to take a step forward this year to meet the BIG expectations ... Already seemed like a bad oman when the previews papering over the glaring question on their D by hyping up Chazz Surratt and the LBs to carry them this year... Big question mark with their DL departures and now a few DB's sneaking out (very far) away from the spotlight.... sounds like trouble...
Yeah that's why I had a bet on ND pretty early on ..... Totally into BYU this year .. But short notice roadie to Annapolis for week 1 is not an ideal time for me to consider them .. I'd prob look toward the under if I felt like the Coog D will matchup / Navy QB will struggle because these two should move super slow in this one and Navy D will be tough once again... Kinda hope we see the Coogs not matchup well in this one and Navy still looks good and BYU looks like they're not doing much for maybe the 6th year in a row or so ...
That game made me think of another thing to think about.... how early do some of these guys plan to get in before their long road games?... The issue seems mostly tempered by only playing conference and not many long trips this year... but BYU to Annapolis? ... hmmm.... maybe check what time they plan on getting in before launching at a cross country deal like that lol..
BYU / Navy is a matchup that I'm not interested in wagering on either.
I'm gonna try to find a more favorable week 1 matchup to wager on.
The Harder you Work , the Luckier you'll get
Bridge , with all the Covid risk as far as not knowing which players are likely to start
any given game based on testing 24 - 48 hours prior to kickoff, players anxiety on
health and safety concerns , Opt outs and their impact on production , and potential
last minute schedule changes , I'm not liking my chances of wagering success this
season , as unknowns in the capping process are much more likely to occur.
I look at it this way . If I can't accurately establish WP on a matchup , I've got to pass
on it as that's wagering discipline . If I can't accurately establish the WP on a matchup ,
and still bet it........ that's gambling , and I'm not into gambling if I don't have to.
I'm not optimistic about having many games to wager on this season.
Bridge
The Harder you Work , the Luckier you'll get
Yeah Wise I look at it the same way.. Phil's mag was stale the moment he printed it .. The capping world doesn't even seem to have a reliable injury/suspension report figured out yet ... not a widely available one anyway ... add the the portal, eligibility, the freshman 4 game redshirts, the starter/backup redshirts ... all kinda coming to fruition at once ..... Maybe a bigger issue than all those things combined is just practice disruptions to date and that's just scratching the surface of the COVID consideration ... just picking one more out of the hat here ... How many DL's totally ballooned during 6 months of quarantining and showing up week 1 totally out of shape?...
Buddy , I think this is going to be a bigger problem for Bettors than they realize.
Bridge
The Harder you Work , the Luckier you'll get
It's becoming an 'exhibition season' boys....one in which most guys will pass. Essentially each game is a 'bowl game' kinda sorta. Oddsmakers will no doubt focus on other sports, with larger betting volume/ exposure...and will have an impossible time setting lines. This means opportunity, especially for those that understand situational aspects....straight match-up guys will struggle for sure.
How to do it? As I've mentioned too many times...coaches have different philosophies on how to prepare their team. They do very well in some SPOTS, very poorly in others. Focus on these COACHES with established patterns, strengths/ weaknesses. Trust me, your 'competition' (other bettors-that help 'fine tune' lines) ...should struggle big time.
BA , I think Books will say .... " What covid " and make 'da Faves just as expensive as ever.
You know the " Gonna Kill ems " ain't gonna bet them dogs. I believe , like you , that
opportunities for sharp bettors will be there , just like always. I do however think that
lines will reflect more risk to the bettor , no matter which side they take due to the
unknowns this season will present. Team preparation will be incredibly important this
season.
BA
The Harder you Work , the Luckier you'll get
IF, we here (unlike America ha) were a rational, enlightened culture...encouraging debate, considered all alternatives - worked towards a common goal, instead of this weird individual competition - to see who can achieve the best record ( to impress total strangers online nonetheless)... we could kill it.
One problem, especially THIS year, will be finding out who TF will suit up...expect a lot of last minute scatches. The best way to find out is LOCAL papers/ beat writers...now hiding behind a freaking paywall. Think about it...oddsmakers can't subscribe to EACH paper in America, they do what we do, wait for national releases. But, we here can do it easily, pretty much.
Here in DFW area, FW Star Telegram and Dallas Morning News, as well as Denton whatever (NTX) are all secured behind a PW...you can't get any news, except radio coverage maybe. Additionally, every HC schedules press conferences each week...and often give a pretty damn good 'snapshot' of how things are going. Most are honest, and terrible actors...top BS'ers we know about ....
It has been tried it seems like, but seldom lasts long. There is at least one guy here that subscribes to each news outlet of interest. Injuries, weather...general notes could be posted each week. Underlying problem?....most guys are more interested in waiting for someone else to do the work.
I should probably clarify this a bit. What I mean to say is that in past seasons , it was
common for the " Gonna kill ems ' to bet Faves up well past their point of value on the
long side , which left those who were willing to take the other side a great wagering
opportunity . This season we may not see so much agressive buying due to the nature
of the virus and it's impact on the process.
We will have to wait to see how bookmakers adjust to how the action plays out
and how they intend to set their numbers .
Just like Bettors , Bookmakers aren't perfect either , and will provide
some great opportunities .......IF...... you are patient.
GLTA
The Harder you Work , the Luckier you'll get
WG - eggzactly what I was talking about.......VERY FEW will be able to grasp what's going on / how to prepare. Mainly ...how do designate a power rating adjustment, for a coaches ability to prepare for a given SPOT? It takes a detailed study of each coach really - oddsmakers won't / can't do this. Plus, what I've noticed from last year...a HO-LOT of teams ha....had huge swings (highs and lows)...their opening numbers will be impossible to set. Looking last nite at Houston, Sparty, NW, Purdue, Terps...??
the NFL pre-season is a goldmine for some...land-mine disaster for most.
That said, I go back and forth - CFB now way! > oh crap they are gonna play! > no way in hell .......... IMO, absolutely NOTHING should happen really until 2021 or so. A focus on learning (on-line) ain't gonna kill anybody ...plus I can watch Rockford get beat up a few more times instead.... the Rifleman gun down the bad guys......
BA , Back in 'da " Old days " I made a pretty good living betting on NFL preseason games.
The Harder you work , the Luckier you'll get.
Same here, go back and forth. A tattered mess of a season or wait till next year. Which has more risk, keeping busy in a structured, controlled environment mostly, with weekly testing, or a sitting at home college age student-who can do only sooo much sitting.
Wonder how many opt-outs get will the virus?
No matter, public perception overrides all here, as does liability.
They are trying hard, give'em that. Good teams have positive attitudes, want to play, those with low expectations say why bother.
Not holding my breath.
Pitt DT Jaylen Twyman has chosen to opt out of the 2020 college football
season to focus on the 2021 NFL draft.
More to come
GLTA
The Harder you Work , the Luckier you'll get
BIG is telling schools that there will be NO full contact practices until further notice.
The longer this rule is in effect , the more likely for teams to play " soft " relative
to tackling in their openers. Keep an eye on this.
GLTA
Yo wise, were you thinking longer odds on matchups outside the standard?.... I'd think it a catch 22 for the (no doubt starving and desperate) books if they try forcing longer odds just because of their uncertainty problems ... I'd think more than happy to gain a customer in this 'weird' year and probably the best kind too because uncertainty no doubt will turn off the sharpiest of the sharpy sharps ...
Just guessing that all the many model assumptions backed by 20 years of play by play data and the sure fire technical trends will be put on ice until deep blue can re-calibrate the bearings... And if they do I'd suspect books would welcome it but I think like you said, discipline keeps many folks out ... So whose left begging for action this year.... Joe Schmo's not even watching NBA or MLB but I'm sure they'll be dialing up some Phil and Athlon pretty soon... Or the more sophisticated public getting that 'insiders scoop' from widely available FO rankings... Gotta wonder how up to date the returning production metrics are with any of those right now or ever will be this year ... Besides being totally useless a month before the season seems all the widely available info has otherwise just carried on like a normal year... And of course count on zillions of ESPN experts to catch us up on every team and blow every little micro trend out of proportion...
That was the long-winded way of my thinking how the books expect to crush it this year ... agree w you, popular teams, teams that we get most familiar with from talking heads and from the mags, teams hitting video game numbers out the gate, etc... should be very influential in directing action this year... Not to mention coming off a year where I count the preseason top 16 as collectively hitting 60% ATS in the reg season and wayyyy WAYYYY more awesome waves had by fading that collection of really terrible teams ... Even folks who weren't so lucky couldn't avoid the seeing the strategy of their genius friends was just playing the LSU, Clemson and OSU all year lol....Week 1 all systems go!!!
No, not exactly . I think books are likely to price em just like they would in a
non covid enviornment. I'm saying that the " Gonna kill ems ' may be a little
hesitant to push them up well beyond the point of value as they have in past
seasons . For me , line movement is important if I need a certain number to
make a play , and many times I need bettors to move a number before I can
make that play.
Bridge
Guys that 'opt out' aren't doing it for C-19 reasons IMO (mostly)....recall these young people especially believe they are invincible.....
* meaning it's a free pass to avoid a likely crap season of starts / stops...plus conditioning will be poor, meaning much greater risk of injury.
If the NFL is your goal, staying far away from this mess....TAKING YOUR AGENTS MONEY NOW... is the OBVIOUS / EASY choice.... (under the table cash ain't in the news you know). Many / most would rather leave early anyway, now they can.
So, yeah these guys probably will get sick much like the active guys....maybe even moreso (my bet) .....especially the guys with new cars / new found wealth = party time
Word up wise... that could be... good year to stay disciplined on all sides...
I suspect there will be a rather large number of teams that folks just aren't at all caught up on, no idea what's up with'em and not interested in betting them....So could mean even more dummy action funnels its way up to the big names, popular brands, and the expected break out teams this year... We'll see how the books handle the ones that catch fire early .... I just can't help thinking the boss sent a memo down after last year reading "DO NOT get our a$$ raped by Buzzfeed's 'Top 10 College Football Teams To Bet On Preview' ever again!!!!" lol..
Good Stuff , Bridge .
I do not understand why more bettors do not use WP to establish value on a play.
Connelly , Massey , and a number of others cite WP as part of their assessment of
a play . I learned it from Huey Mahl , back in the '90's , and I think it's a great
method of determining value as well as for risk management. This season , with the
challenges of covid looming , us WP guys are going to have a lot of variables that
will make accurately determining WP very difficult, which is why in my post # 81,
I stated that I don't think I'll find as many plays to wager on this season.
Bridge
The Harder you Work , the Luckier you'll get.
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