Betting Week 1 openers

I wanted to share my thoughts on betting Week 1 openers this season

relative to " Assumed Risk " in a Covid enviornment.

This season, bettors will have to make a choice as to what price to

make a wager at , but also when to make the wager due to the

timing and magnitude of outbreaks of Covid at various schools.

UT reported 13 cases , Clemson reported 21 players this week.

Betting " early openers " transfers all of the Covid risk to bettors.

Assuming this risk , at a elevated price , just compounds the risk

to the bettor on a wager.

I don't know how others feel about this , but in another thread ,

I stated that I feel Covid risk is real , and potentially unquantifiable

to a bettor who uses risk management as part of their strategy.

To reduce risk from Covid , I'm choosing place wagers within

2 weeks of kickoff , rather than assume 2 months of risk by

betting early openers.

I feel that by waiting , I will have a better grasp of who will

start for teams , and also whether they will play at all.

By waiting, I still have the capability to bet any matchup , as

well as any side , and at any price that presents value to me.

This requires " Betting Discipline " , but it will also increase my WP.

Just a thought.

GLTA

Keep in mind Ohio State says they are not releasing any COVID positives, let alone name of players. Who else may adopt that policy?

One thing very interesting, at the risk of being called "political" again, is that it appears those states hit hardest early by COVID seem to have less issues with players testing positive now. Michigan has reported two athletes out of 221 tested as positive. Not sure what sport? That pales in comparison to southern teams where COVID is now ramping up. Not hearing much from other Big Ten schools.

Could be a small silver lining as players who test positive now without physical damage (asymptomatic) should be clear to play and have anti-bodies.

Real problem I see is NCAA did not establish across the board rules concerning COVID, too much of a hot potato it seems.

You bring up a very good point with TOSU and their policy.

Personally , I don't like to lay a lot of points on teams in Week 1.

I would rather bet on teams where bettors are more likely to move

lines towards the price I want to pay, rather than away from it.

The fact that teams like TOSU are likely to choose to withold

information that is critical to my ability to establish value and WP

on a matchup means that I would have to pass on that play in Week 1.

Once Week 1 is over, I will have sufficient data to wager with going forward.

Agree!

Feel good about Clemson week to week.  Team might have herd immunity by the time week 1 rolls around lol they aren’t going to have to worry about any “outbreaks” within their locker room.  

The fact that Bookmakers are not rushing in to hang early openers

indicates to me that they are not sure just how to price them in light

of Covid going into Week 1. I've got my own idea on where I want to 

buy them ,as well as where I think they will open , but that really means

nothing until we have a live number to bet ,.......... if we get one at all.

Bookmakers must be  waiting for their copy of Steele's magazine as well.   

To clarify this a bit . I should have said Bookmakers may not be sure how

they want to price them right now in light of Covid. I'm sure that Books are

monitoring this situation very closely , just like we are , and have access to

much more data than bettors , and they know their business , relative to price

and risk.

I also mentioned that I know where I want to buy them . That is based on my

assesment of risk to me on a wager relative to WP. That might very well change

as Bookmakers open them. My advantage is that I can take either side based on

line movement. I'm just hopeful that we will have some CFB to wager on this season.

GLTA

To All , Circa Sports has posted Week 1 Sides and Totals.

GLTA

WG

Thanks Wise!

Cannot seem to find them online????

Jim Harbaugh says he and his players want to play.

They are not posted online at VI yet. If you go to Jeff Benson on Twitter, you

will see them posted there.

If you have an online account with Circa , they are also available to wager on.

Hope we get to see some Football this season , Bud  

Bud that's Jeffrey Benson on Twitter . Early limits are $1K on sides , $ 500 on totals . 

WG

Caveat Emptor , if you choose to wager on these openers as they come

a stipulation that reads " game must be played by 3 / 31 / 2021 "

Kinda like a futures wager . Some may not like having their " Capital "

tied up that long . Plenty of time to get bets down on week 1.

Hope we have College Football this season .  

Good stuff wise... I'd wonder if the game is officially cancelled rather than tentatively reschedule and clearly no intention to play during the season if they'd still tie you up till 3/31... would get really annoying for any customer if they strike the wrong tune on that one but if so might want to add a consideration for games likely to get cancelled.... 

Anything popping off the screen at you buddy?...

Circa is a customer friendly Sportsbook , and I personally don't think

their main objective is to tie up customer funds for an extended period

of time. More likely it's about the uncertainty we are all facing as we

get closer to a season start , with Covid cases on the rise.

Circa generally puts up numbers that for me, requires patience as well

as discipline on my part . I think news that will come up prior to the

season start may help move some lines in my direction. I have some

really tight windows to meet the Value and WP goals I need to see to

make a wager. Circa has a few interesting totals that I'm looking into

right now. 

Bridge  

Bridge , Bookmakers, when they hang a number , walk a fine line between

getting clobbered by Sharps and Wiseguys and the public pounding one side

of a play. The offshore guys had a tendancy to put up some great numbers,

but bettors were very limited on how much they were allowed to drop on early

action. Circa, as I said in Post # 14 , does a good job of posting numbers that

require thought and patience from me in order to get the right price for a

wager. I mentioned this to Matt Metcalf at Circa as we were reminiscing about

our " Old Days " at the IP and Westgate. I would rather compete against the

best number that they can put up , as it challenges my skills at CFB capping.

That will make me a better capper over time. If I can beat the best , I will also

take greater pleasure when I cash my ticket, knowing that I have earned it.

Bridge  

Bettors just might want to hold off on betting these Early openers  with

the BIG cancelling the " non Conference ' portion of their schedule , and

other Conferences likely to do something similar. We might not have a

firmed up schedule until sometime in August. If we play at all. 

Well , I had 3 matchups that I really liked that capped out well and

the price was right ...... Unfortunately ...... all 3 were non conference

games. With the BIG and now the PAC 12 going to conference only

schedules , I don't think I'll get a chance to bet them.

I expect the ACC to do the same , and the SEC meets on Monday.

I may not have anything for Week 1 that works for me at this rate.

Bridge  

I hope the Conferences post some updated schedule info soon.

Fall Camps start next week.

Well , it looks like the ACC is opting for an 11 game schedule , which will include

1 non conference game. The 3 Chick Fil A games will be cancelled, and the non

conference game will be played on an ACC field. Notre Dame is joining the ACC

for this season and will be eligible to play for the ACC championship.

we are starting to get a little more clarity on how this season is shaping up.

Va Tech CB Caleb Farley is opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft.

I would expect more players to " Opt out " prior to the start of play this season.

Yep , He's projected as a 1st round selection.

Looks like a solid " business " decision to me.

BA  

FYI , Big 12 Conference Presidents meet on Monday.I'll be interested to see what

they come up with as a plan. Personally , I think all conferences should adopt a

plan for an 11 game schedule consisting of 10 conference games and 1 non

Conference game , and let's get the season started. 

FWIW , I like the fact that IF we have a season , It will be Conference centered ,

with minimal or no non conference participation. Personally , I think this will give

a slight  advantage to Sharps , and other " Technical " cappers over a Bookmakers

ability to consistently establish a line that doesn't favor a side.

That means more opportunity for " Value " players who are knowledgable , and bold

enough to take either side of a prop as price and conditions  warrant.

GLTA    

The Harder you work , The Luckier you'll get

SEC is supposed to meet Today to discuss their plan going forward.

Think they're looking into a Conference only schedule as well.

The Harder you work , the Luckier you'll get.