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#5 FSU at #3 Clemson INSIGHT

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by gridironguy:

how will jameis react in his first road night game against a good defense?

hmmmmm

When you say "GOOD DEFENSE" you may want to break that down a little. The only thing that is good about Clemson's defense is the front 7 (FAST and Physical, not real deep though). They should be the best Jameis has seen in a game, but its not the best he has played.  Jameis was scout team QB last year against the statiscally #1 defense last year.  You only have to look as far as the NFL draft to see what he got to face in practice already. FSU's front 7 this year is damn good too, minus some drop off we had losing two NFL DEs. So considering what he faces in practice day in day out, I dont think Clemson's look is going to rattle this kid. I like the pressure that Clemson can create off the edge, but this is not going to be a freshmen deer in headlights situation by any stretch of the imagination. Where Clemson struggles mightily is in the secondary. They are not very good. Coincidentally, the strongest unit of FSU's defense is the secondary. Again, Winston gets the best look he is going to see till the UF game every day in practice.  
Finally, Winston is a natural QB.  He feels the pressure very well and keeps his eyes down field when eluding it. No doubt that Clemson will create a pass rush, they have the players to do it. The question is will they be able to stop what no one else has yet, which is Winston making plays from scramble? With that secondary, Im leaning towards NO.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by PlayinPlot:

To everyone talking about the perception thought. No doubt I understand it, but in this situation I just cannot see how this line is created this way SOLELY off the recent perception. It is too big of a discrepancy when NEITHER team has even lost! 

This article I just read sums up my thoughts:

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/vegas-poll.php

Vegas flat out thinks FSU is a much better TEAM than Clemson, all recent perception aside. Glad I just stumbled on that article bc it sums up my sentiments perfectly. Check it out.

UMSUX:

Thanks, I will give that a look right now. 

They have Stanford at #5. Vegas can't be that slow. And Florida with 3 losses at #13. No, they don't know any better, and are probably not lazer beam focused on this game either.

I think Clemson at times is too sloppy and outta control. They can win big or get burned. Not the kinda team I wanna back. Should provide plenty of ooohs and ahhhs for those who watch it I'm certain of that.

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:

Clemson's weakest position is safety, but then again, Winston hasnt seen a pass rush like he will on Saturday night.  Can he get rid of the ball before Beasley gets to him?

Another tid-bit of info, the noles haven't won in Death Valley in since 2001.  

Incognegro,

The pass rush you speak of very good, but we're not talking world beaters here coming of the line. Just because Clemson has 3 very capable DEs. that does not mean FSU's offense will shutdown. The biggest problem with this agruement is that FSU's defense, even still learning a new scheme, is better than Clemson's defense and that is who WInston practices against.  Additionally, he scouted for FSU last year, against a defense that runs essentially the same scheme Venables is running. The only difference is, 2012 Stoops defense was night and day better than what Clemson is fielding this season. So this argument of Jameis not facing a good pass rush is silly at best, and completely naive at worst.
Death Valley IS A LEGIT ARGUMENT.  Clemson has a REAL home field advantage. A night game with NC title implications on the line, well I cant imagine a more fired up environment this season. This will be bigger than the UGA game as far a crowd noise and rowdiness.  
 
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Posted: #29
This is a great thread. Just wanted to add something that hasn't been mentioned so far, FSU has had two weeks to prepare. I don't know if or how this helps or hurts them, but thought if throw it out for discussion. IMO it can only help
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by UMSUXUFSWALLOWS:


Incognegro,

The pass rush you speak of very good, but we're not talking world beaters here coming of the line. Just because Clemson has 3 very capable DEs. that does not mean FSU's offense will shutdown. The biggest problem with this agruement is that FSU's defense, even still learning a new scheme, is better than Clemson's defense and that is who WInston practices against.  Additionally, he scouted for FSU last year, against a defense that runs essentially the same scheme Venables is running. The only difference is, 2012 Stoops defense was night and day better than what Clemson is fielding this season. So this argument of Jameis not facing a good pass rush is silly at best, and completely naive at worst.
Death Valley IS A LEGIT ARGUMENT.  Clemson has a REAL home field advantage. A night game with NC title implications on the line, well I cant imagine a more fired up environment this season. This will be bigger than the UGA game as far a crowd noise and rowdiness.  

To say that FSU's defense he practices against is the same as playing a defense from another team being comparable, is being naive.  They cant even touch the guy in practice.  Its not the same.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by POTUS:

This is a great thread. Just wanted to add something that hasn't been mentioned so far, FSU has had two weeks to prepare. I don't know if or how this helps or hurts them, but thought if throw it out for discussion. IMO it can only help

This is also a very debatable topic too.  Sometimes its better to not break stride when you are executing well. That said, FSU needed it. 

We have good back up center, but our starter sustained a concussion vs Maryland.  Not sure what his status is yet, but the extra week off only gives him more time to comeback. Also we got starting DT McAllister back in the rotation.  Injury wise we are in real good shape.

Coach Fisher has been preaching since the Maryland win, that he would not be working two straight weeks on Clemson.  He has stated several times they would be working a little on a few other up coming teams and fundamentals, then have this week as prep for Clemson.  To an extent I believe that, but I also think Fisher does not want to look like an fool game planning for our biggest game for two weeks while the other team is grinding it out on the field. No doubt FSU is still a work in progress with the defensive scheme, so their is technically fundamental work to be done, but Im not buying that we havent been working on Clemson 80 percent of the time. Clemson is all misdirection, so eye control will be huge for success against their potent offense. Our scout team wont be able to mimic Clemson offense, but two weeks of working misdirection plays cant hurt.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:


To say that FSU's defense he practices against is the same as playing a defense from another team being comparable, is being naive.  They cant even touch the guy in practice.  Its not the same.

You are correct that Fisher is not going to allow his starting QB to get crushed in practice, but its not like plays go on if the rush is there in practice. And I do stand by practice being comparable to live game.  FSU's defense is much better than Clemson's, just the way it is.  FSU has a complete defense where Clemson has a few guys that can get off the edge and create some pressure. Kudos, but Winston sees better every day. 
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by UMSUXUFSWALLOWS:

Here is a FAN break down of the two teams purely based on numbers. The takeaways from the numbers are obviously opinion based, but this is a good VERY DETAILED look at both teams.  Solid read to inform yourself on both teams.

https://www.tomahawknation.com/2013/10/14/4836382/clemson-the-numbers

Great Post!  Thanks for contributing.  I am on Covers to find useful information like this.

Most of the posts on this site are completely useless and give no real breakdown about the teams.  I'm so tired of seeing posts like, "5 Star Play of the Month. I'm on Clemson +3... LARGE!!!  No way they lose at home.  Let's get this money!"

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Dead_Presidents:

Great Post!  Thanks for contributing.  I am on Covers to find useful information like this.

Most of the posts on this site are completely useless and give no real breakdown about the teams.  I'm so tired of seeing posts like, "5 Star Play of the Month. I'm on Clemson +3... LARGE!!!  No way they lose at home.  Let's get this money!"


You are welcome.  Im here for information too. Im going the other way on this game, but honestly it should be a no play for everyone. These teams are very very even, right down to both having great kickers. Not GL on this game, GREAT Luck on the rest of your card. 
 
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Posted: #35
I agree FSU is the better team on paper... put them on a neutral field late in the year, and I'll probably take FSU... BUT... they are the more inexperienced team in this matchup, and Clemson at home is a very different beast... this is clearly their game of the year...

I'm not endorsing Clemson... I just don't see how anyone could trust laying pts with them on the road against a quality team... seems like an unknown quantity... Clemson has played more big games in the last couple years than FSU... can they handle this?

We'll see...
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by UMSUXUFSWALLOWS:


You are correct that Fisher is not going to allow his starting QB to get crushed in practice, but its not like plays go on if the rush is there in practice. And I do stand by practice being comparable to live game.  FSU's defense is much better than Clemson's, just the way it is.  FSU has a complete defense where Clemson has a few guys that can get off the edge and create some pressure. Kudos, but Winston sees better every day. 

I don't have a dog in the fight as I am not betting it.  However, people said Clemson couldn't beat GA, they did.  It was said they couldn't beat LSU, they did.  It was said they couldn't beat Auburn last year, they did.  It was said they couldn't beat VA Tech twice in one year, and again, they did.  Those who said they couldn't beat SC are correct though lol.  At any rate, it seems that in big time games lately, Clemson has stepped up and proved people incorrectly.  This team has changed in the last couple of years, and the coaching staff has done a great job in making the players believe in themselves.  The winning train could stop, but you would think time and time again, proving people wrong, would make people perhaps start believe in Clemson, but it doesn't seem like that is happening.  Anyway, good luck in whatever you bet.  
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by POTUS:

FSU has had two weeks to prepare. I don't know if or how this helps or hurts them, but thought if throw it out for discussion. IMO it can only help


Glad you brought this up... I have been noticing more and more that CFB teams do not benefit from bye weeks in any significant way... at least not on the scoreboard... I bet teams off a bye are well under 50% ATS this year... well under!  Probably below 40%...

NFL teams have success off of the bye... but for some reason, it doesn't do much for college teams... probably because they get lax, and don't practice every day... 
 
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Posted: #38
I will probably lay a bet for FSU cause I have a gut feeling on them winning in DV for first time in a long time, but I have not endorse a side in this thread either. I provided info and what I guess you could called a big time HOMER's perspective on his own team.  Being a HOMER can be bad if you place bets on emotion, or good cause you really have a lock on what your team is bringing into the game. There are valid arguments to be made on both sides of this play, making it a just a GREAT game to watch.

To address what Incog said, UGA was a great matchup and test.  Clemson came out on top, but Clemson won a shootout.  Both teams got to throw against awful secondarys.  UGA's defense is lacking this year, thats known and cant be argued. Clemson came out with a victory playing their great passing attack into a weak passing defense.  You can not take into account other games, because every team is different each year.  Clemson lost a lot with Nuk leaving and Ellington leaving. Their decline in  redzone offense and third down conversion percentage compared to last year shows this. So marquee wins from 2012 are not relevant since its not the same team.

I guess where I stand on this one is that BOTH teams offenses are going to be clicking, and you'll see above I have not downed what Clemson brings on that side of the ball. Boyd is very talented in a tricky offense to stop. He makes a few mistakes, but he has been very CONSISTENT for a several years now.  Clemson and FSU get theirs making for an exciting match up.  The difference will be the few keys stops FSU should get with the better all around defense, allowing them to get a win on the road at DV.  The legend of Jameis continues, this kid is destined (not even being facetious when I say that.)
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:



Glad you brought this up... I have been noticing more and more that CFB teams do not benefit from bye weeks in any significant way... at least not on the scoreboard... I bet teams off a bye are well under 50% ATS this year... well under!  Probably below 40%...

NFL teams have success off of the bye... but for some reason, it doesn't do much for college teams... probably because they get lax, and don't practice every day... 

 Crossing my fingers FSU stayed disciplined.
 
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Posted: #40
Alright, Im out of this thread cause I posted way too much and dont want to cheerlead. 

Last note

Starting center Bryan Stork took all first team snaps with the ones today.  Has a dark visor on, I guess to block sun and help with any linger effects of the concussion he sustained. 
There are NO other injuries that the team has not already adjusted for several games now.  FSU is healthy going into this one barring any thing from practice this week.

Good thread, later. 
 
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Posted: #41
On sportsinsights.com more bets are coming in on Clemson. I agree that clemson at home getting points is the 'safer' play. I will probably be on fsu here.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:



You know it's sad... Boom Boom and Jimmy Da Freak are two guys I didn't really agree with a lot of the times... but they both were extremely knowledgeable in terms of breaking down their conferences and teams, by and large... and it's not as if this site has people like that coming out their ears...

But as usual... idiots around here antagonize and moan and wail after a bad week... and invariably people who ARE contributing have to ask themselves... "Why the darn should I help any of these dipshits by providing them with any insight?"  And you can never get around the fact that the answer is... "I shouldn't!"


But for games like this, regardless of who they think will cover, the insight of Boom can help others get a feel for the game, and find out any info they might be missing... so the covers masses once again succeed at SLITTING THEIR OWN THROATS... 


Moral of the story: Covers clowns don't want insight... they want winners!  People like ME want insight... I'll figure out my own winners... but a little expertise on a game I can't spend hours capping, would be helpful once in awhile...


But this lesson will not be heeded... the hand that feeds will be bitten off again...

FWIW, I disagree about Boom Boom.  I like him and hope he comes back, but he seemed to take the bait too easily from trolls.

But I agree. I hope both come back.  Their insights were a great contribution.

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by PlayinPlot:

To everyone talking about the perception thought. No doubt I understand it, but in this situation I just cannot see how this line is created this way SOLELY off the recent perception. It is too big of a discrepancy when NEITHER team has even lost! 

This article I just read sums up my thoughts:

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/vegas-poll.php

Vegas flat out thinks FSU is a much better TEAM than Clemson, all recent perception aside. Glad I just stumbled on that article bc it sums up my sentiments perfectly. Check it out.

UMSUX:

Thanks, I will give that a look right now. 

I'm really curious what Vegas "power rankings" mean.

Vegas is in the business of setting lines for betting purposes.  That doesn't mean equal action IMO. That means lines are set with the *betting community's' perception* in mind.  Not with their own perceptions.  They're not literally trying to determine the margin of victory in a football game.  They're trying to determine what the betting public thinks.

So wouldn't that mean that Clemson at #15 in Vegas "power rankings" only mean that Vegas *thinks the betting community thinks* that Clemson is #15???

Not that Vegas *thinks* Clemson is #15?   Big difference between the 2. 

Just 3 weeks ago, my local had Clemson -3 vs FSU as a "college games of the year" line.  The only data points since then was 2 Clemson games and FSU vs Maryland. 

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by UMSUXUFSWALLOWS:


You are welcome.  Im here for information too. Im going the other way on this game, but honestly it should be a no play for everyone. These teams are very very even, right down to both having great kickers. Not GL on this game, GREAT Luck on the rest of your card. 

I'm not betting on Clemson.  I was just giving an example of a typical post on Covers. 

This is a play or Florida State or a no play for me.  I was hoping to get Florida State plus points or as a pick 'em at worst.  I probably would have been able to get those odd too if Clemson wouldn't have sh!t the bed against Boston College. 

 
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Posted: #45
Composite, 

Good points. 
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by PlayinPlot:

To everyone talking about the perception thought. No doubt I understand it, but in this situation I just cannot see how this line is created this way SOLELY off the recent perception. It is too big of a discrepancy when NEITHER team has even lost! 

This article I just read sums up my thoughts:

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/vegas-poll.php

Vegas flat out thinks FSU is a much better TEAM than Clemson, all recent perception aside. Glad I just stumbled on that article bc it sums up my sentiments perfectly. Check it out.

UMSUX:

Thanks, I will give that a look right now. 

People are always more willing to bet on FSU than Clemson. You can forget the notion that the "squares" will be on the small home dog. Squares see FSU win 63-0 and Clemson struggle vs BC and now they get the Noles who only have to win by a fg?

Who has FSU played to warrant being favs? They got all they could handle from BC, much the same as Clemmy. Other than that, they bat a pitiful Pitt team and creamed the Terps. Not quite a night game in Death Valley vs a top 5 team with a veteran heisman canidate.....

Not saying FSU aint gonna win/cover, but the squares wont be on Clemson.

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by PlayinPlot:

To everyone talking about the perception thought. No doubt I understand it, but in this situation I just cannot see how this line is created this way SOLELY off the recent perception. It is too big of a discrepancy when NEITHER team has even lost! 

This article I just read sums up my thoughts:

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/vegas-poll.php

Vegas flat out thinks FSU is a much better TEAM than Clemson, all recent perception aside. Glad I just stumbled on that article bc it sums up my sentiments perfectly. Check it out.

UMSUX:

Thanks, I will give that a look right now. 

People are always more willing to bet on FSU than Clemson. You can forget the notion that the "squares" will be on the small home dog. Squares see FSU win 63-0 and Clemson struggle vs BC and now they get the Noles who only have to win by a fg?

Who has FSU played to warrant being favs? They got all they could handle from BC, much the same as Clemmy. Other than that, they bat a pitiful Pitt team and creamed the Terps. Not quite a night game in Death Valley vs a top 5 team with a veteran heisman canidate.....

Not saying FSU aint gonna win/cover, but the squares wont be on Clemson.

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by UMSUXUFSWALLOWS:


You are welcome.  Im here for information too. Im going the other way on this game, but honestly it should be a no play for everyone. These teams are very very even, right down to both having great kickers. Not GL on this game, GREAT Luck on the rest of your card. 

You bring up a good point about the kickers.  I don't know much about Florida State's kicker, but I am a University of South Carolina graduate so I keep up with the Clemson program pretty well and I think they have the best kicker in the country.  He will be kicking in the NFL.

I think the key to the game is Clemson's offensive line vs. the Florida State defensive line.  Clemson does not have a great offensive line and they struggle against teams with elite defensive lines.  That is why they have struggled against South Carolina in resent years.  The question in my mind is how good is Florida State's defensive line?

 
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Posted: #49

Quote Originally Posted by POTUS:

This is a great thread. Just wanted to add something that hasn't been mentioned so far, FSU has had two weeks to prepare. I don't know if or how this helps or hurts them, but thought if throw it out for discussion. IMO it can only help

I think it actually hurts FSU. Jameis has time to think about the heisman and a little rust doesnt take long to set in. Momentum is hard to get, and a week off is sometimes a killer....

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

People are always more willing to bet on FSU than Clemson. You can forget the notion that the "squares" will be on the small home dog. Squares see FSU win 63-0 and Clemson struggle vs BC and now they get the Noles who only have to win by a fg?

Who has FSU played to warrant being favs? They got all they could handle from BC, much the same as Clemmy. Other than that, they bat a pitiful Pitt team and creamed the Terps. Not quite a night game in Death Valley vs a top 5 team with a veteran heisman canidate.....

Not saying FSU aint gonna win/cover, but the squares wont be on Clemson.


Train,
Agree completely with your assessment. BC is a very sound team. People thought FSU was going to lose (or definitely not cover the spread) vs an overrate Maryland team cause of the game they had vs BC the week prior.  BC is the definition of blue collar.  Great O-Line, decent qb, and a defense that plays with pride. I bet against the Clemson and spread last week, knowing Clemson would not cover that 24 either. 

For me the take away from BC game is NOT that Clemson got challenged by a supposedly bad team, its that they still dont run the ball well and the coaching staff has no confidence in short yard situations.  Take the opening drive of Clemson vs BC. BC forces them into a second 3rd down situation. Its 3rd and 2 and what does Chad Morris call?  TRICK PLAY.  Boyd acts like he is talking to the sideline, while the center direct snaps to the RB.  THEY DID NOT CONVERT. Thats not good. The #3 team in the country should be able to line up and smash the ball for a first despite everyone in the entire stadium knowing they are going to run. Clemson can not enforce their will on the ground. My first post in this thread is a link to a bunch of metrics. One of which shows how Clemson has been struggling in 3rd situations compared to last year. Run game is an issue for Clemson, and it showed last weekend.
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