#5 FSU at #3 Clemson INSIGHT

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101673458

Id love to get into an intelligent conversation throughout the week about this matchup. The thing I am looking for is a Clemson fan willing to an unbiased breakdown of their team. I got that from a Pitt fan in that link above, and would love the same here. 

Once I can get that, I am absolutely willing to give my updated view point of my Noles. As you see in that link above, I am a big FSU fan and will be attending the game. I will give my perspective, but only if theres gonna be constant interaction here. Not going to just spew to myself haha. 

As for the line of this game, I was shocked when it was released. My local had it Clemson -1 (-125) LAST week (after we slaughtered Maryland). Did that ugly Clemson performance really shift this line 4 points? Not sure. I expect this line to dip closer to a PK by game time. Public sees a higher ranked team at home as an underdog. They will take it every time. Especially in a hostile environment. 

Ill leave it at that for now. Lets see what kind of insight we get. 

Cheers

Plus another thought, Winston is great, but this is the first time he's going to be in a really hostile environment against a top tier team.  He hasn't been in an atmosphere like this, nor seen a defense like this as of yet.  No way can I back a freshman QB in this spot.  He may survive and win, but I don't want to take that chance with my money. 

Screams Clemson win IMO but what do I know. 

If I were to bet, I would bet on a proven QB, at home, in a friendly environment.  I might would lose, but no way in hell I lay 3 points in this spot.  

Offense:  both have speedy receivers, although FSU may be more physical and bigger.  Both have great large offensive lineman averaging 6'4 305lb.  Clemson has a more physical & experienced QB.  Although, talent wise they are the same imo.  

Defense:  I believe FSU lineman averages about 290 lb, cant find info on clemson.  Both secondary are fast, but FSU is a little bigger and more physical.

Overall, clemson is at home with a huge crowd.  However, FSU is more physical on the D-side and the QB is more physical.  Clemson have not play against a QB that can throw other than Murray from Georgia and looked what happen.  I think FSU can score at will as they have shown against decent D in pitt, maryland, and bc.  And i believe with their physicality in the linebackers and secondary thay they can pull out with a 7 point win.

How many people actually watched the FSU - Maryland game, and how many just saw the 63-0 final... in my opinion, that game is what is creating FSU's current perception... whether or not they deserve it is another question:

With 4:00 left in the 1st half, FSU was leading 14-0... Maryland had the ball around their own 30... up to that point, even the 14-0 score was misleading... Maryland had moved the ball very well against the FSU defense, but had 1 TO and a long missed FG that bounced off the upright... 

I felt like Maryland was about to drive down the field and get a TD... they were getting more and more confident on every drive...

Then it happened... CJ Brown gets planted by a late hit (commentators were shocked there was no flag thrown)... leaves the game... a few plays later, the Terps turn it over, and FSU adds a BS touchdown before half to make it 21-0...

At that point there was only one way the game could go... Maryland had all of the life taken out of them before HT...

Exactly ZERO of the 2nd half points in that game should factor into what you think of Florida St... the 63-0 score in that game is the most misleading final score I have ever seen in a CFB game...

So how far off is perception from reality in this game?

Sharps will be on FSU, while squares will be on Clemson. Not by any means does that determine the winner, but the line is telling here. 

As for anyone betting AGAINST FSU with the reasoning that "They have a redshirt freshman QB playing in his first hostile environment" obviously don't know anything about Jameis Winston. This kid is EXCITED for this opportunity. He isn't scared. He won't be nervous (once the game is underway). If you're using that as an excuse for backing Clemson, try again, because its a useless point. 

As I said though, my local hung a Clemson -1 (-125) days AFTER that Maryland beat down. And I honestly think that was adjusting from a line that probably was more like Clemson -3 before that Maryland game.

So is this line 4 points off the -1 solely because Clemson struggled w BC? I doubt it. Typical struggle in a look ahead game.

I just think if this line was Clemson -3 right now you'd still see PLENTY of public money on Clemson. Yet Vegas hangs FSU -3. Seems like they are scared of sharp money on the Noles. 

Kinda like Georgia and LSU   ?

It sounds to me like you have it already figured out.  I don't know why you're soliciting opinions for you to shoot them down?  Bet Fl st if you want.  I'm not betting the game at all.  There are a lot more games to bet than just this one.  

And your last statement makes no sense.  Wouldn't the sharps still bet the noles if they were +3?  I don't see how -3 is a line that's scared of the sharps, b/c as you said earlier, a lot of public money will be on the home dog?  So if line was Clemson -3 you'd have public on Clemson and sharps on FL st.  Since the line is Clemson +3, public is on Clemson (what you said in an earlier post) and sharps on Fl. St.  So I don't think your last statement has any validity.  Like Ice said (which was concurred by wahooS ((one of the best cappers here))) the line is what it is b/c recent perception.  Clemson struggles with BC, Fl. St beats Maryland and then has a bye.  

I was just skimming this thread and came across this statement which is something I've thought about throughout my years and experiences gambling on sports....

There's this internal, pyschological hurdle that most of us have a hard time getting past.  There's a weird comfort or justification, for lack of a better term, in betting on the "Safer" side and losing, than to put $ down on the unpopular or head-scratching side of a line, and winning or losing.  

There's a weird sense of pride that screws with your ability to see where you SHOULD bet vs where the number is LEADING you to bet.

This is one of the biggest games in CFB in quite some time, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any number of possible outcomes occur, but it makes me feel at least a little more confidence in backing FSU, based on the mentality in the quote above.

(btw, not picking on you personally OP, just thought that your comment was quite telling of how a really good line can influence decisions on wagers and the acceptance if it loses, as opposed to really considering the other side).

GL whichever way you choose. 

You know it's sad... Boom Boom and Jimmy Da Freak are two guys I didn't really agree with a lot of the times... but they both were extremely knowledgeable in terms of breaking down their conferences and teams, by and large... and it's not as if this site has people like that coming out their ears...

But as usual... idiots around here antagonize and moan and wail after a bad week... and invariably people who ARE contributing have to ask themselves... "Why the darn should I help any of these dipshits by providing them with any insight?"  And you can never get around the fact that the answer is... "I shouldn't!"

But for games like this, regardless of who they think will cover, the insight of Boom can help others get a feel for the game, and find out any info they might be missing... so the covers masses once again succeed at SLITTING THEIR OWN THROATS... 

Moral of the story: Covers clowns don't want insight... they want winners!  People like ME want insight... I'll figure out my own winners... but a little expertise on a game I can't spend hours capping, would be helpful once in awhile...

But this lesson will not be heeded... the hand that feeds will be bitten off again...

https://www.tomahawknation.com/2013/10/14/4836382/clemson-the-numbers

Great post!  As the season wears on, the books get a better read on teams, and have greater success in scaring people away from certain games and certain teams... 

Oregon - Wazzou is an example, to me... how many people can feel comfortable laying 38 against Oregon?  That line is going to induce quite a few LARGE bets on Wazzou, and a whole bunch of SMALL bets on Oregon... because nobody feels SAFE laying that many points, against a live opponent...

But the SAFE mentality is totally illogical... Oregon either WILL cover or WILL NOT cover, and the number of points they have to lay to get there only matters inasmuch as their chances are greater or less than 50%... 

Oregon -38 might not look "SAFE" before the game starts... but if they are up 21-0 in the first quarter... how safe do you think those people with Wazzou are gonna feel?

The SAFE PLAY mentality is always in full effect leading up to the games... but come gameday, it is easy to see that it all goes out the window...

My bad... should say Wazzou... pretty sure nobody feels safe laying 38 against Oregon...

This article I just read sums up my thoughts:

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/vegas-poll.php

Vegas flat out thinks FSU is a much better TEAM than Clemson, all recent perception aside. Glad I just stumbled on that article bc it sums up my sentiments perfectly. Check it out.

UMSUX:

Thanks, I will give that a look right now. 

This article I just read sums up my thoughts:

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/vegas-poll.php

Vegas flat out thinks FSU is a much better TEAM than Clemson, all recent perception aside. Glad I just stumbled on that article bc it sums up my sentiments perfectly. Check it out.

UMSUX:

Thanks, I will give that a look right now. 

If this is true, why was Clemson favored by 1 last week?  And before the year started, they were favored by 4 on the "games of the year" line?  I'm just being the devils advocate....

Another tid-bit of info, the noles haven't won in Death Valley in since 2001.