2018 Bowl Under system... 37 - 3 in 2017... Lets Do it Again!

There is another thread using Massey defensive ratings to point this out but believe that as we get closer to the playoffs we may need to dive a little deeper.  Using defensive YPP allowed only (from teamrankings . com), out of the 22 bowls played so far the better YPP allowed is 17-5 SU and ATS.  Of the 5 losses, 4 of those had a SOS of 100 or more (out of 129 teams) and the upsetting team had a stronger SOS in all of those (I'm using SOS from footballoutsiders). Also 2 out of the 5 losses were to armed forces schools.  You could say SDSU and Virginia defense didn't show up but those option academy schools are tough to go against and they don't give up.  Otherwise we really haven't seen a defensive "no show".  On the otherhand offenses have no showed (Oregon and Colorado St to a lesser extent, SMU and Toledo totally, and W. Virginia and UCLA due to QB injuries).  And for the most part we haven't seen a good offense struggle in the 1H and then come alive in the 2H (K-State and the Texas Tech/S. Florida game).

Kinda fits with how this bowl system has worked for so many years.  Maybe because offenses have to act where defenses just have to react?  Not sure but obviously need to look close at the defense.

Add to the total no shows:  SMU, Toledo, Missouri

Maybe for those looking to get involved in the side as well as these halftime totals this can help.  Live line after Va. Tech scored was still +3.5.

Winner on 1H so no play for 2H.  But to note it opened 30 and went to 28.5.

Cam Phillips being out for Va. Tech has certaintly hurt their red zone offense.

FWIW I think the Lions will easily cover the -6.5 at home against GB. In a nothing game I can see the Lions rallying a little to do the double against the Packers and send off their coach with a W before his inevitable firing. The Packers, meanwhile, don't have anything to offer with Hundley there and you could really see last week that with the playoffs gone they didn't have the fire, nor do they have many receivers to go with their no-deep-ball QB.

Another...Atlanta -4, after the Vikings beat the Bears at noon, rendering Carolina's result maningless.