For the second consecutive season, Big Ten teams are underdogs in
a high percentage of their bowl games. In fact, after being the dog
in six of last year’s seven bowl matchups, this year finds the Big Ten
an underdog in five of seven games. This is a league that has been
struggling in bowl games as it is, and this year’s matchups are certainly
not favorable. History shows that laying points in bowl games has not
been a profitable strategy, particularly when the Big Ten team is the
one in the chalk role. For ’09, only Penn State (vs. LSU and Minnesota
(vs. Iowa St) are expected to win their games based upon the early
pointspread. Ohio State will be looking to slow a miserable trend of
Big Ten teams vs. Pac 10 foes in the Rose Bowl vs. Oregon.
- In the last two bowl seasons, the Big Ten has struggled, going just
4-11 SU & 6-9 ATS (40%). Strangely, Big Ten teams have only played as
favorites in three of those 15 games, going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS (67%).
- Favorites in Big Ten bowl games went 14-1 SU & 10-5 ATS over the
last two years, halting a 4-year run in which underdogs covered 17
of 20 games!
- Since the turn of the calendar to 2000, Big Ten teams are an ugly
5-19 ATS (21%) in the chalk role. The bigger the line, the worse they
are too, having lost 11 straight games ATS as a favorite of 5.5-points
or more.
- Favorable returns come from betting Big Ten teams as large
underdogs in bowl games. In fact, since ’98, as underdogs of 4-points
or more, they are a profitable 20-9-1 ATS (69%). However, over the
last two years, that record is just 4-6 ATS (40%), part of the overall
struggles.
- Strangely, on high totals, those 60 or above, OVER plays have been
the more profitable side in Big Ten bowl games, 8-1 (89%) in the L9.
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