🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

WHEW!

Saved by the opposing coach making an equally STUPID decision to go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield.

Scored tied now..........BUT.....pregame, I had no idea that APP STATE's #1 RB, Nate Noel - 5.3 ypc!!!  would dress but be held out due to tweaking an ankle...... HUGE LUCKY BREAK for CC!!!   APP STATE doesn't have a comparable backup....

Missing Noel is hurting the APP STATE offense considerably......

What gets me, is APP STATE insists on running for one or 2 yards on every first down with a backup averaging less then 2.5 ypc....

CC passes for 5 or 6 yds on many first downs...APP STATE doesn't, despite missing their terrific RB

66%  tonight 

Oct. 11 risky bet:

FIU -180

FIU 1st half -155

UTEP proving to be better than expected with backup QB

LIVE BET:  1stQ  UTEP -350

Puts my ML first half bet and game bet  in jeopardy

UTEP runs for a TD......powerful run game thus far.....what will FIU do about stopping it??

UTEP's opening drive was 10 plays for 75 yds taking 6 mins!

That's the other thing........UTEP's starting QB  OUT  and main backup OUT and we knew going in they would be most likely going to #3 a rookie.  The line on the revenge-minded hometeam, also higher rated, FIU Panthers, looked "too good to be true"

That is always a worry.......

And now UTEP tosses a one play 80 yd bomb to go up 14 - 0.

THAT is what flips games in a hurry.....

Bad news tends to follow bad news....I'm anticipating FIU -- in a desperate effort to avoid letting this game getting out of hand --  turning the ball over to compound their problems early....but at the very least, being stopped again on their second poss without any pts....

FIU got stopped as anticipated.

Then, to compound the BAD NEWS, UTEP went deep again.......TD....up 21 - 0

I'm looking for ways to bail on FIU now.....because while they may get some desperation throws in for TDs, they've shown they CAN'T stop the now extremely motivated and inspired UTEP offense......High scoring game  coming.....but FIU loses!

Getting this acknowledgement out of the way early:

2 big fat losers

However, I did win manage to get a win with  LIVE BET: 1stQ UTEP -350

Sam Houston +4 -115

FIU last two drives:

5 yds   then punt

and

2 yds then punt

The entire FIU bench looks completely DEJECTED.....

No lucky breaks yet for either side.

Pens even

UTEP 4 long drives vs.  2 for FIU

NET YDS:  UTEP  322 vs  179

YPP stats: UTEP  9.7 ypp  vs  6.2

UTEP leads 24 - 7 at HT

WOW!

Nmex St up 14 - 0 early

167 yds to only 63

2 drives each

no turnovers....

Doesn't happen often that  with only two games on the board, the lowered rtated teams in each contst defeated the higher rated team by 2 touchdowns..........but that odds oddity did occur Wednesday night.

TNF:

Live bet, after Houston punt and WV starts into drive:

WEST VA. -175

NOTE:  RB Johnson OUT for WVA

No bet on SMU/ECU...... I like ECU but need more of a cushion than 12 pts and the price to buy pts in this particular case with the outcome not reasonably assured is too iffy for me.   In-Game opp is possible......

OY!......... Houston takes KO after WVA fieldgoal and race 100 yds for TD to lead 7 - 3

VERY unusual a 100 yd TD run.......... First incredibly "LUCKY BREAK" goes to Houston.

Another LIVE BET: WEST VA -120  (down 10 - 14 early 3Q)

WVA is rated much higher than Houston, but only held a smallish advantage in stats at HT, and down 10 - 14

Entering the game, I had WVA rated solidly in the middle of my 2nd tier (5 tiers; 3rd tier is the mid-range/mediocre group) while Houston is rated toward the upper/middle of my 4th tier. (5th tier is really bad and not competitive)