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🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

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Posted: #626

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: We shouldn't put too much into Hilltoppers narrow 3 pt loss last game at TROY. Hilltoppers were BADLY OUTPLAYED despite benefitting from +50 net yards in pens and an extra turnover in their favor. a 14 pt loss would have been more reflective of the level of play... And while MTSU lost by 7 at home to Colorado State, they actually edged the RAMS in play, and a tie would have been more indicative of the result. agree that what r your thoughts on temple-tulsa ?  any leans yet ?:Close call.  Lean to Tulsa so far.yep  looking there too      although there r some injury concerns on tulsa I do have TULSA rated as the better team and I really thought they would be laying at or close to a TD
 peace_5 Good call on Tulsa!

 
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Posted: #627

"Occam's Razor" (first impulse bets)

 

WEEK 5: (blue highlight was posted previously)


Win  an_2drinks   TULSA -3 -118

BYU Cougars -136    *BEST BET
J M Dukes -160        *BEST BET
Minnesota -440        *BEST BET
Colordao +24 -150   *BEST BET (alt-line for a cushion)
Hawkeys -450         *BEST BET

MEMPHIS -145
Midshipmen -3
UTEPMiners Pick                              *BEST BET
AKRON -2.5
SOONERS -11.5 -285 alt-line
Kentucky -1
BC Eagles -165
W.Michigan -1                               *BEST BET
Longhorns -7 -320 alt-line
Ole Miss +3.5 -145 alt-line
Purdue Pick
GS Panthers -1                             *BEST BET
Washington -12.5 -230 alt-line

 
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Posted: #628

The sum total of all the college TEAMS that I circled each weekend over the first 4 weeks is 115.

After doing my handicapping "forensics" like most of you do also, from that list of circled TEAMS I decided to lay bets on some and discard the ones which didn't cut the mustard upon further review.

The ones I chose to bet, so far: 32 - 22 (a lot of juice though)

The ones I didn't bet would have won 41 - 19 

And that got me thinking that all my deep dive research wasn't near as profitable as just going with my first impulses when the lines came out!  So we shall see how this tracking experiment works.  But I bet them all and they are my real picks for the record.  Going forward, my *Best Bet tag is only added AFTER I have done my handiccapping/research.

My *BEST BETS so far:  17 - 7

The losers included -350, -185, -165, -325, -280, -275, -210

an_lightAll of my bets are an anomaly....as I have foolishly violated my long standing rule of betting in the first 4 weeks of a season.

I will be noting from this week forward how my bets are faring with the first 4 weeks now providing excellent information for my handicapping style.

BOL on your bets this weekend! clover

 
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Posted: #629

SH!T. 

If I had known starting QB for UTEP was OUT I would have bought it back......an_brick

 
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Posted: #630

I've seen enough.....BYU having an off night....

Score tied 7- 7- mid 2Q ....8 mins left :

LIVE BET  BEARCATS -115  *BEST BET

BEARCATS -1.5 -115

 
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Posted: #631

@fubah2

 Watching also . BYU looks like shit . Bol 

 
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Posted: #632

Quote Originally Posted by beats723:

@fubah2  Watching also . BYU looks like shit . Bol

Yeah man.....sucks....so I bought it back in a hurry......they are being dominated!

BOL with your other bets this weekend! thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #633

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

"Occam's Razor" (first impulse bets)   WEEK 5: (blue highlight was posted previously) Win     TULSA -3 -118 BYU Cougars -136    *BEST BETJ M Dukes -160        *BEST BETMinnesota -440        *BEST BETColordao +24 -150   *BEST BET (alt-line for a cushion)Hawkeys -450         *BEST BET MEMPHIS -145Midshipmen -3UTEPMiners Pick                              *BEST BETAKRON -2.5SOONERS -11.5 -285 alt-lineKentucky -1BC Eagles -165W.Michigan -1                               *BEST BETLonghorns -7 -320 alt-lineOle Miss +3.5 -145 alt-linePurdue PickGS Panthers -1                             *BEST BETWashington -12.5 -230 alt-line

Adding a SIDE BET (not part of experimental bets): James Madison -2.5

 
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Posted: #634

Quote Originally Posted by beats723:

@fubah2  Watching also . BYU looks like shit . Bol

HALTIME stats:

Cinci 14 1st downs to BYU 6

Cinci 254 yds to BYU 107

Cinci 5.3 ypp to BYU 5.1 (all on final drive of half)

Cinci 2 drives of 40+ yds, to BYU 1

Lucky BYU are beneficiaries of a pick 6 and 28 extra yds gained on pens

 

Cinci gets ball to start 2H.  Both teams motivated at half

 
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Posted: #635

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Adding a SIDE BET (not part of experimental bets): James Madison -2.5

Adding another SIDE BET: Georgia State -115

 
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Posted: #636

With A & M QB gonzo for the season that changes things.

Johnson is OK, but Weigman could take off the ball as a dual threat.

There has to be a dropoff here imo.

Now I have them rated even with the Razorbacks..... considering  a home dog bet

 
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Posted: #637

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Adding a SIDE BET (not part of experimental bets): James Madison -2.5 Adding another SIDE BET: Georgia State -115
Another SIDE BET (not part of Occam's Razor experimental bets): Boilermakers +1 -109 (Pinnacle)

 
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Posted: #638

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Adding a SIDE BET (not part of experimental bets): James Madison -2.5 Adding another SIDE BET: Georgia State -115Another SIDE BET (not part of Occam's Razor experimental bets): Boilermakers +1 -109 (Pinnacle)
Adding: BROWN -450

 
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Posted: #639

UTAH taking it on the chin for injuries. They're piling up. an_getaway

Luckily they have 2 weeks to prepare for their next game, at home vs California

 
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Posted: #640

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Adding a SIDE BET (not part of experimental bets): James Madison -2.5 Adding another SIDE BET: Georgia State -115Another SIDE BET (not part of Occam's Razor experimental bets): Boilermakers +1 -109 (Pinnacle)Adding: BROWN -450

Adding: CLEMSON  -285

 
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Posted: #641

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

With A & M QB gonzo for the season that changes things. Johnson is OK, but Weigman could take off the ball as a dual threat. There has to be a dropoff here imo. Now I have them rated even with the Razorbacks..... considering  a home dog bet

Adding RAZORBACKS +8 -145 (alt-line)

 
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Posted: #642

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: With A & M QB gonzo for the season that changes things. Johnson is OK, but Weigman could take off the ball as a dual threat. There has to be a dropoff here imo. Now I have them rated even with the Razorbacks..... considering  a home dog bet Adding RAZORBACKS +8 -145 (alt-line)

Adding BUFFALOES +30.5 -280 (alt-lines)

 
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Posted: #643

Yeesh..... TROJANS made their opening drive look real EASY!

CU missing 3 starters on D

 
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Posted: #644

I'm already on the WILDCATS on homefield in an even matchup,

but they just got a HUGE LUCKY BREAK on a tipped ball INT at the 15....then score

 
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Posted: #645

La @MINN, LIVE BET early 2Q....MINNdown 7 - 10 but driving,

GOPHERS -290

 
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Posted: #646

Finally some offense from BUFFALOES!

 
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Posted: #647

My KY WILDCATS threatening to score again....up 16 - 0   thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #648

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

I've seen enough.....BYU having an off night.... Score tied 7- 7- mid 2Q ....8 mins left : LIVE BET  BEARCATS -115  *BEST BET BEARCATS -1.5 -115

Big fat Loser

 
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Posted: #649

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: With A & M QB gonzo for the season that changes things. Johnson is OK, but Weigman could take off the ball as a dual threat. There has to be a dropoff here imo. Now I have them rated even with the Razorbacks..... considering  a home dog bet Adding RAZORBACKS +8 -145 (alt-line)

Big fat Loser

 
 
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Posted: #650

Friday night action sucked....

My original *BB on BYU looked absolutely *HORRIBLE* late in the first half with just 40 yards and only 1 for 7 passing.....so I bought it back taking Cinci.......Sure enough BYU comes back to win by 8.....sigh.....

1 - 0  Thursday night (with Tulsa)

1 - 3  Friday night (including 1 - 2 *Best Bets)

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