I have Penn State rated as #1 BEST team ENTERING THE SEASON, as does very highly respected Sagarin and Phil Steele. And there are valid reasons for it. They may or may not finish there (in sport anything can happen) but this is how I see them to start the season.
However a case could be made for several teams...
Of course INJURIES can and often do play a significant part in team fortunes and there is no way to accurately predict that for any team. Klubnick, Nussmeier, Leavitt, Manning, Allar, Beck, go down for say 3 or 4 games in conference and they could easily tumble down to a ranking of 15 - 25 or so and may even miss the playoffs altogether. SAME applies to most teams with a marquee QB. It would be a bad beat no doubt, but these things happen EVERY year...
It all starts Saturday!
3
Everyone is entitled to their opinion!
I have Penn State rated as #1 BEST team ENTERING THE SEASON, as does very highly respected Sagarin and Phil Steele. And there are valid reasons for it. They may or may not finish there (in sport anything can happen) but this is how I see them to start the season.
However a case could be made for several teams...
Of course INJURIES can and often do play a significant part in team fortunes and there is no way to accurately predict that for any team. Klubnick, Nussmeier, Leavitt, Manning, Allar, Beck, go down for say 3 or 4 games in conference and they could easily tumble down to a ranking of 15 - 25 or so and may even miss the playoffs altogether. SAME applies to most teams with a marquee QB. It would be a bad beat no doubt, but these things happen EVERY year...
Although OSU won the title by getting hot in the playoffs, they weren't even the best team in their conference.....Oregon, Penn St, and Indiana were ahead of them in BIG TEN
Key numbers last year, in BIG TEN:
1. ORE 9 - 0 +165 net ypg, achieved from 16 returning starters with QB 2. PSU 8 - 1 +130 net ypg, achieved from only 13 returning starters with QB 3. INDY 8 - 1 +140 net ypg, achieved from 18 returning starters with QB 4. OSU 7 - 2 +129 net ypg, achieved from 16 returning starters with QB
This year:
ORE drops from 16 returning starters 14, and lose their top ranked QB! INDY drops from 18 returning starters 16, and lose their starting QB! OSU PLUNGES from 16 returning starters to just 9, and lose their starting QB! PSU improves from 13 returning starters to 15 starters, with one of the top QBs in the nation!!
Buckeyes, with a new, far less experienced QB and only 3 returners on defense, plus losing a whopping 15 draft choices, plus losing their championship building DC, Ohio St. is not expected to be as good this year as last (7 - 2 in BIG TEN)
But Penn State has no such deficiencies! They increase the number of returning starters that achieved 8 - 1 in conference from 13 to 15, have arguably one of the top 5 QBs in the nation, with one of the top 5 run-game units in the nation, with 4 OL returning from a strong unit already, backed by loads of talent *AND* have arguably one of the TOP 5 BEST defenses in the nationwhile adding the championship building DC from Ohio St!!
They are the ONLY team among the top 4 BIG TEN last yr that is primed for improvement! Their toughest game will be Sept 27 against the DUCKS - who were the best team in the BIG TEN last yr, defeated Ohio State and return 14 starters this yr compared to OSU only returning 9 and must also start a new, inexperienced QB after losing Will Howard to the draft. OSU is in a coin-flipper to open the season against the preseason #1 ranked Longhorns - who are also better than the Buckeyes.
Nittany Lions win BIG 10!
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Here is much of my reasoning.
Although OSU won the title by getting hot in the playoffs, they weren't even the best team in their conference.....Oregon, Penn St, and Indiana were ahead of them in BIG TEN
Key numbers last year, in BIG TEN:
1. ORE 9 - 0 +165 net ypg, achieved from 16 returning starters with QB 2. PSU 8 - 1 +130 net ypg, achieved from only 13 returning starters with QB 3. INDY 8 - 1 +140 net ypg, achieved from 18 returning starters with QB 4. OSU 7 - 2 +129 net ypg, achieved from 16 returning starters with QB
This year:
ORE drops from 16 returning starters 14, and lose their top ranked QB! INDY drops from 18 returning starters 16, and lose their starting QB! OSU PLUNGES from 16 returning starters to just 9, and lose their starting QB! PSU improves from 13 returning starters to 15 starters, with one of the top QBs in the nation!!
Buckeyes, with a new, far less experienced QB and only 3 returners on defense, plus losing a whopping 15 draft choices, plus losing their championship building DC, Ohio St. is not expected to be as good this year as last (7 - 2 in BIG TEN)
But Penn State has no such deficiencies! They increase the number of returning starters that achieved 8 - 1 in conference from 13 to 15, have arguably one of the top 5 QBs in the nation, with one of the top 5 run-game units in the nation, with 4 OL returning from a strong unit already, backed by loads of talent *AND* have arguably one of the TOP 5 BEST defenses in the nationwhile adding the championship building DC from Ohio St!!
They are the ONLY team among the top 4 BIG TEN last yr that is primed for improvement! Their toughest game will be Sept 27 against the DUCKS - who were the best team in the BIG TEN last yr, defeated Ohio State and return 14 starters this yr compared to OSU only returning 9 and must also start a new, inexperienced QB after losing Will Howard to the draft. OSU is in a coin-flipper to open the season against the preseason #1 ranked Longhorns - who are also better than the Buckeyes.
@fubah2 Thanks for the reply and sharing how you come to the conclusion Penn State is #1. I seem to hear this EVERY YEAR but when it comes to actually playing say OHIO STATE they lose FACT Real quick, where did Ohio State play Oregon last year? Right in Eugene and lost by 1 point. Penn State did not play Oregon at all anywhere last year. This team never plays anyone Pre Season (Look at the garbage coming into Beaver Stadium the 1st 3 weeks). Ohio State right out of the gate plays Texas. So Penn Sate really does not play anyone and does not go on the road until October Oregon like I said 7:30 pm White Out Game. James Franklin 0 -10 against Ohio State That QB I'm not impressed with The bottom line, They never ever ever respond in a BIG SPOT Ever Under James Franklin and until that happens you can throw out this stat and that stat and......They are not the #1 or #2 or #3 team going into this season. Notre Dame opens at Miami, Ohio State opens with Texas, Texas opens against Ohio State on and on Penn State play nobody for a month and if things are Real Tight at the End that team that HC will lose I'm basing everything I say here on a LARGE SAMPLE SIZE Ok, good stuff looking forward to finally getting Football back!!! Could not come soon enough
True well said
The impossible just takes a little longer
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Quote Originally Posted by OddsBuster52:
@fubah2 Thanks for the reply and sharing how you come to the conclusion Penn State is #1. I seem to hear this EVERY YEAR but when it comes to actually playing say OHIO STATE they lose FACT Real quick, where did Ohio State play Oregon last year? Right in Eugene and lost by 1 point. Penn State did not play Oregon at all anywhere last year. This team never plays anyone Pre Season (Look at the garbage coming into Beaver Stadium the 1st 3 weeks). Ohio State right out of the gate plays Texas. So Penn Sate really does not play anyone and does not go on the road until October Oregon like I said 7:30 pm White Out Game. James Franklin 0 -10 against Ohio State That QB I'm not impressed with The bottom line, They never ever ever respond in a BIG SPOT Ever Under James Franklin and until that happens you can throw out this stat and that stat and......They are not the #1 or #2 or #3 team going into this season. Notre Dame opens at Miami, Ohio State opens with Texas, Texas opens against Ohio State on and on Penn State play nobody for a month and if things are Real Tight at the End that team that HC will lose I'm basing everything I say here on a LARGE SAMPLE SIZE Ok, good stuff looking forward to finally getting Football back!!! Could not come soon enough
OPENING WEEK LEANS (possible live bet leaners) KSU ml Kansas ml WKY ml
thank you sir the first thread I open every week and rely on as I make my plays…. Not an ounce of favoritism, just straight knowledge and experience!! King Fubah
The impossible just takes a little longer
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
OPENING WEEK LEANS (possible live bet leaners) KSU ml Kansas ml WKY ml
thank you sir the first thread I open every week and rely on as I make my plays…. Not an ounce of favoritism, just straight knowledge and experience!! King Fubah
Hey Duke - I’m on Dodgers/Oregon St -2.5 parlay. I don’t know college football nor have the time to try to cap so I’m buying a package from a proven capper. His Big Pick is Oregon State -135 , It’s gone up since I bought it 2 weeks ago which is a good sign , see what happens on game day .
I concur. BoL
0
Quote Originally Posted by RayRayK:
Hey Duke - I’m on Dodgers/Oregon St -2.5 parlay. I don’t know college football nor have the time to try to cap so I’m buying a package from a proven capper. His Big Pick is Oregon State -135 , It’s gone up since I bought it 2 weeks ago which is a good sign , see what happens on game day .
OPENING WEEK LEANS (possible live bet leaners) KSU ml Kansas ml WKY ml
King Fubah… im curious about your KSU ml Lean? I couldn’t find much of edge and felt like as you say “coin flipper” so I’m staying away… That KSU QB is a lot of fun, Edwards is slippery and should have a great year. Great TE and the D line will be disruptive Romaine is a helluva LB. But this defense needs to show me something before I’ll back the Cats. Cyclones should pound it rushing behind the OL. Potential rock fight under…and the grass grows thick Dublin.
Have a great start to the season Duke
The impossible just takes a little longer
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
OPENING WEEK LEANS (possible live bet leaners) KSU ml Kansas ml WKY ml
King Fubah… im curious about your KSU ml Lean? I couldn’t find much of edge and felt like as you say “coin flipper” so I’m staying away… That KSU QB is a lot of fun, Edwards is slippery and should have a great year. Great TE and the D line will be disruptive Romaine is a helluva LB. But this defense needs to show me something before I’ll back the Cats. Cyclones should pound it rushing behind the OL. Potential rock fight under…and the grass grows thick Dublin.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: OPENING WEEK LEANS (possible live bet leaners) KSU ml Kansas ml WKY ml King Fubah… im curious about your KSU ml Lean? I couldn’t find much of edge and felt like as you say “coin flipper” so I’m staying away… That KSU QB is a lot of fun, Edwards is slippery and should have a great year. Great TE and the D line will be disruptive Romaine is a helluva LB. But this defense needs to show me something before I’ll back the Cats. Cyclones should pound it rushing behind the OL. Potential rock fight under…and the grass grows thick Dublin. Have a great start to the season Duke
Gut feel. That's why it is just a lean (for possible LIVE bet only)
I typically avoid the first 4 weeks in football - with only a few exceptions.
My style of handicapping requires current year stats/results to support a bet, in order to be successful. I won't have sufficient stats to for at least a few weeks.
Same thing for MLB .....I always skip APRIL for the same reason.
And NFL (usually start week 5 or 6)
And College basketball conference play (men's and women's)
This discipline has served me well. But I'm open to live bets based on the game play and possibly a pregame bet if I truly feel there is plenty of value (based on my preseason assessments)
Obviously, the time of the CFB year when I will have accumulated the most stats/results for betting is entering the Bowls/Playoffs. Typically when I am having a good season, I double my bet size for post-season to 4 - 5% of BR on each bet (sometimes more!)
32 - 8 in Bowls/Playoffs last season for considerable profit (more than typical year) ...buta win is a win and still only counts for just one unit no matter how much I bet.
1
Quote Originally Posted by JJWoods:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: OPENING WEEK LEANS (possible live bet leaners) KSU ml Kansas ml WKY ml King Fubah… im curious about your KSU ml Lean? I couldn’t find much of edge and felt like as you say “coin flipper” so I’m staying away… That KSU QB is a lot of fun, Edwards is slippery and should have a great year. Great TE and the D line will be disruptive Romaine is a helluva LB. But this defense needs to show me something before I’ll back the Cats. Cyclones should pound it rushing behind the OL. Potential rock fight under…and the grass grows thick Dublin. Have a great start to the season Duke
Gut feel. That's why it is just a lean (for possible LIVE bet only)
I typically avoid the first 4 weeks in football - with only a few exceptions.
My style of handicapping requires current year stats/results to support a bet, in order to be successful. I won't have sufficient stats to for at least a few weeks.
Same thing for MLB .....I always skip APRIL for the same reason.
And NFL (usually start week 5 or 6)
And College basketball conference play (men's and women's)
This discipline has served me well. But I'm open to live bets based on the game play and possibly a pregame bet if I truly feel there is plenty of value (based on my preseason assessments)
Obviously, the time of the CFB year when I will have accumulated the most stats/results for betting is entering the Bowls/Playoffs. Typically when I am having a good season, I double my bet size for post-season to 4 - 5% of BR on each bet (sometimes more!)
32 - 8 in Bowls/Playoffs last season for considerable profit (more than typical year) ...buta win is a win and still only counts for just one unit no matter how much I bet.
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Everyone is entitled to their opinion! 
I have Penn State rated as #1 BEST team ENTERING THE SEASON, as does very highly respected Sagarin and Phil Steele. And there are valid reasons for it. They may or may not finish there (in sport anything can happen) but this is how I see them to start the season.
SAME applies to most teams with a marquee QB. It would be a bad beat no doubt, but these things happen EVERY year...
Buckeyes, with a new, far less experienced QB and only 3 returners on defense, plus losing a whopping 15 draft choices, plus losing their championship building DC, Ohio St. is not expected to be as good this year as last (7 - 2 in BIG TEN)
Nittany Lions win BIG 10!
well said 
the first thread I open every week and rely on as I make my plays…. Not an ounce of favoritism, just straight knowledge and experience!! King Fubah 
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