Vegas vs KenPom System

ACCORDING TO THE WAY I FIGURE IT, THE PLAYS WOULD BE LA SALLE AND VANDY.............GL GUYS

OK SO  HANK.. AND BEAVER...... DO U SUGGEST TO PLAY  TEASERS ... WITH THIS SISTEM OR JUST A DIRECT PLAY .....???

Great work beaverfan! I did this a few weeks back and reintroduced it yesterday, then just noticed this thread. Great minds think alike eh. I've been doing the totals as well. They have been working quite a bit. I started up a thread with the plays that I have, however on the spreads very similar to yours. I also like how you use the larger differences the higher the spread.

Keep up the Great Work!!

No teasers

So, you are hitting over 60% by betting on the team that is worse at defensive efficiency?
Tennessee's ranking is 48
Vandy's is 61.

Xavier's ranking is 83
La Salle's is 258.

Maybe I read this wrong the first time. You're saying that the team with the Higher AdjD number (the worse defensive team) covers the spread? In your Vandy example, Vandy at 61 would be the play over Tenn at 48 (a better defense)

NO.....THE ONE THAT HAS THE BEST DEFENSE; I.E., TODAY TN IS 93.8 AND VANDY IS 95.2, HENCE, THE PLAY WOULD BE VANDY; HOWEVER, I LIKE FOR THE TEAMS I PLAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST NUMBER ON BOTH OFFENSE AND DEFENSE. THAT'S THE CASE WITH VANDY. YOU AND I FIGURE IT TWO DIFFERENT WAYS. YOUR'S MAY BE BETTER. LETS FOLLOW IT FOR A WHILE AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS.....

Hank, you realize that TN (93.8) gives up only 93.8 pts while Vandy (95.2) gives up 95.2 pts based on the same number of possessions? TN has the better defense hence the higher ranking 48 over Vandy at 61

MY UNDERSTANDING IS THAT THOSE NUMBERS ARE PERCENTAGES, NOT POINTS, THEREFORE, THE HIGHER THE NUMBER THE MORE EFFICIENT THE TEAM ON EITHER OFFENSE OR DEFENSE............GOING TO WORKOUT NOW AND I'LL CHECK BACK LATER.

I'm not doubting that you may have been hitting a high % of plays but there's no logic to it unfortunately. A higher number (95.2 vs. 93.8) on AdjO is a better offense.

beaverfan23 and all others on this board, your system is flawed and unproven. i have been a kenpom fanatic for 3 years, watching the website like a hawk. The way to bet and win with kenpom is to do the exact opposite of your system.

examples

last week kenpom had george mason winning by 3 vs virginia commonwealth. well virginia comm was -1.5...this tells me there is a 4 point diff in the spread to take george mason. Who wins? George mason blows the arms off vcomm.

The very next night Indiana state plays @ southern illinois. kenpom has indiana state winning by 3 and southern illinois is 1 point favorite. the play is indiana state +1 and wouldnt you know it Indiana state wins outright.

saturday kenpom had vandy beating auburn by 15 the line was 11 so the play would be vandy -11 and wouldnt ya know vandy wins.

also on saturday kenpom had george mason beating northern iowa by 3 and northern iowa was a 1 point fav and george mason wins bt 6

also on saturday kenpom had byu winning by 20 or 21 cant really remember, the line was 15 or 16 so you play byu and imagine this, byu destroys tcu.

also on saturday kenpom had cincy beating providence by 3 or 4, when the line came out it was a pick so with the system u should have taken cincy, and although it went into overtme cincy wins and covers.

kenpom did have one loser on saturday and that was ole miss vs miss st, he had ole miss winning  and ofcourse they didnt win, i do not remember the exact spread numbers but it did fit the 4 point difference.

on sunday kenpom had cal beating ucla by 2, when i bet the game ucla was fav by 2 so thats a 4 point difference and we all know cal won the hame striaght up.

If kenpom has a line 4 points or more off of what vegas does, go with kenpom. if the kenpom line is 6 or 7 points off in a game where the line is less than 10 points. bet ur house on what kenpom says.

Do not listen to this fool, that has an untested system. i have been doing this for years and making a killing.

Tonight xavier is a play -14 and vandy if the line for some odd reason goes to 5.

please note on some high spreads above 20 a 7 point difference is a good bet because of the better team taking out thier good players towards the end of a blowout.

This system is the only proven one to work year in and out.

Please do not be fooled by any man that shaves his beaver!

I COMPLETELY UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU ARE SAYING; HOWEVER, THE OFFENSIVE NUMBER IS NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT IN THE WAY I FIGURE IT. THE DEFENSIVE NUMBER IS ONLY ONE THAT COUNTS...........EVERYONE HAS THEIR OWN WAY OF DOING THINGS AND THAT'S MINE.......GL FRIENDS..........

MWMagician,

I didn't say it hit 100% of the time, in the week I checked it hit 64% of the time and went 24-14.  You are naming a few of the 14 that lost but forgetting the 24 that won.

BOL tonight

What MWM seems to make more sense to me than what I have been reading prior to his post.

Wait hold a sec beaver, ur saying that if kenpom has a favorite winning by more than say 4pts (xavier) then we take the dog at plus 14??? This seems like taking the opposite of what the site would suggest... i dont follow here.... can u run that by me?

 

You just said it, take the opposite of what the kenpom website suggests.  Simple as that.  When there is a large difference between the kenpom line and the vegas line.  We take the Vegas side, or fade kenpom.  I do not yet know if this will work longterm but for the last 8 days, this system is 26-15

The thing  I dont quite understand about this system is that beaver is suggesting that your supposed to wait for the line to drop to 14 before it becomes a "play" as opposed to grabbing LaSalle at 14.5 because 14.5 only has a difference of 3.5 points.  So your supposed to hold out for the worst line and grab the dog in this case. I just dont see the logic in that. 

Alright i follow ur system Beaver, but let me ask you this? Is Kenpom any good at what they do? I mean if they have lets say Xavier at 18 and the line is 14 at most books then we take laSalle, and we like Lasalle even more if the line drops.  So you bet against kenpom last week and went 24 and 14 which is great. Does anyone one here other than the MagicMan respect kenpoms lines as being something to be on??? Thanks for the input.

Would Michigan State be a play?

Vegas has them at +2.5 and Ken Po has at +4?

I still have not decided if it will be best to count plays in which the line moves to meet the requirements OR only determine plays or no plays based on the opening line. 

You are correct, it makes no sense at all to wait for a worse line, but if the line did not move then it wouldn't qualify as a play.  When I back tested, the games that were ALMOST plays did not hit at a very high percentage.

OK I'm only going to say this once.  Kenpom is a computer. They are very good at what they do. Vegas is a computer and a human when they set those lines. Humans that have info that you and I (and Kenpom) don't have. If the Vegas line and the Kenpom lines are off, I'm going with Vegas being right and fading Kenpom's prediction. Just the fact that the lines are different should tell you something if you've been doing this for any length of time. It's not 70%+ but it will prevail over the long run.

beaverfan23andHank55andMidWestMagician:

For the last 3 or 4 weeks it is at 62% with sides and totals. Just saying...

 

That being said, I do not play the games that cross over ZERO. If KP has one side and Vegas has the other I have thrown those games out as they were losing when fading KP...Maybe MWM has a point, on those.)