Vegas vs KenPom System

Poolman had a thread talking about comparing the Vegas line and KenPom's line.  After reading his I decided to backtrack the last week and find the games that had a large difference between the two lines.  I found that when there is a large difference between the lines, Vegas wins 64% of the time.

The system is a bit confusing to put into words but I will do my best.

I have defined a large difference as follows:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

There is one exception to this rule:
When Vegas and KenPom have different teams favored it is a no play.  KenPom seems to get more of these close ones right than Vegas.

So in short, when there is a large difference in KenPom's projected line and Vegas' line.  We fade KenPom.

Using these numbers as a large difference, this system went
24-14-1 in the last 7 days.

Keep in mind I have only checked this for 1 week of games so there is not a large sample size.

Vegas                                          KenPom
Furman-3.5                                 Furman-6
CoC -17                                       CoC -23
Valpo -1                                        Valpo -3

So Tonights plays are:
Chattanooga +3.5
Samford +17
W.GB +1

If the Syracuse line moves to 3, Syracuse will be a play.

good work    thats what this forum is all about    helping  not bitching

I would like all of the plays to be public fades and games from regularly lines conferences.  I will keep track of all plays for the first week though

Great job on looking into this beaverfan.

OSU +17 is also a play

vegas line 17

Kenpom 20

f the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.


According to what I have deemed a "large difference" it is not a play, I'm assuming that it will be harder to be accurate with a bigger spread.  So in order to be a large difference it needs to be around 25% of the spread.

However, you may be correct.  3 points across the board might be a large enough difference, you know just as much about this system as I do at this point.  We will see

good work beaver!

Beaverfan,

Wanted to make a contribution, so here's something I noticed as I was noodling around on the FanMatch page.

If you click on the dates just under the heading "FanMatch", you go backward or forward in time.

Click back to Saturday, the 19th.

In the prediction column, in the games he predicted a ML winner are in black.....where he missed the ML winner, they're red.

Top 20 games are half black, half red.

Now look at the very bottom of the page. 

The bottom 30 games, he only missed 4 ML winners.

Seems to me a guy could seriously make the odds of hitting a ML parlay a whole lot better trolling for games on the bottom of the FanMatch page.

I just did a cursory glance through Feb, but it looks pretty consistent.

Nice beaver

 

Be interesting to see what a Round Robin parlay (2 teamers) at 20 bucks a pop would have netted.

Has anyone compared this going back further than a week?

Classic

RIP..Frank

Thanks beaver, this explained it a little more clearer.

Question that I asked in the other thread but couldn't get an answer: In the prediction column there is a percentage number in brackets, what does this relate to? ie: Villanova 71-66 (67%)?

lookin forward to this

Does anyone happen to know what "thrill score" means next to each matchup on fan match on Ken Poms site? Just wondering because it has the Villanova/Syracuse game as the highest at a 74.3

How likely we are to be entertained.

On the top 3 Thrill Score plays since 2/1/11 he's 38-21 SU.  Most of the games are small spreads, so the ML is not too significant.

Hitting at 64.4% isn't too shabby!

Does the system work for TOTALS too?  I saw that the Furman total was off by 3 points.  Vegas total is 141 while KenPom is 138.  Would we bet the over then or you don't think it will work on TOTALS?  Thanks.

over 141 in furman

this is interesting...keep the thread alive, will be monitoring this

I looked back since 2/1/11.

Top 3 "Thrill plays" are 38-21 Straight Up, but only 30-28 ATS

Top "Thrill play" is 15-5 SU since 2/1/11 and 13-5-2 ATS

I believe that is the probability that Villanova will win the game