the good bad and the ugly typical when all beave is doing is trying to HELP!!!!! nobody can predict the future i dont believe in the coin flipping theory that some may or not be suggesting id classify that as a REAL GAMBLE with my hard earned coin yes his plays have a probabilty of losing evertbodys sided on the losing side once or twice im not going to deny ive lost beave please keep up the very informative playz and by tommorow yes these too will become more knowledge to your system in creating the MONSTER !!!! im with ya brother my vote is simple LEAVE IT TO BEAVER!!!!!!!!!!!! bol bud thx
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Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:
the good bad and the ugly typical when all beave is doing is trying to HELP!!!!! nobody can predict the future i dont believe in the coin flipping theory that some may or not be suggesting id classify that as a REAL GAMBLE with my hard earned coin yes his plays have a probabilty of losing evertbodys sided on the losing side once or twice im not going to deny ive lost beave please keep up the very informative playz and by tommorow yes these too will become more knowledge to your system in creating the MONSTER !!!! im with ya brother my vote is simple LEAVE IT TO BEAVER!!!!!!!!!!!! bol bud thx
While I agree to a certain extent that Vegas is influenced by getting 50/50 action, if they set the line at 19 on Texas, 3 pts over where they really think the line should be, they run the risk of big sharp money coming in at +19 and then they're forced to move the line down to 16 where it should have been in the first place. Now they've set themselves up to be -19 and +16 on their side of the wagers, not a very good place to be. I think it's more likely that they set the line where they think it should be and let the money flow dictate where the line ends up so they can get their 50/50 without exposing themselves to a big middle. They can move the line whenever they want.
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While I agree to a certain extent that Vegas is influenced by getting 50/50 action, if they set the line at 19 on Texas, 3 pts over where they really think the line should be, they run the risk of big sharp money coming in at +19 and then they're forced to move the line down to 16 where it should have been in the first place. Now they've set themselves up to be -19 and +16 on their side of the wagers, not a very good place to be. I think it's more likely that they set the line where they think it should be and let the money flow dictate where the line ends up so they can get their 50/50 without exposing themselves to a big middle. They can move the line whenever they want.
Was a post in the gaming industry forum... it was with the guy from betjamaica.... was alot of good questions and insight on lines...its worth a read in my opinion
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Was a post in the gaming industry forum... it was with the guy from betjamaica.... was alot of good questions and insight on lines...its worth a read in my opinion
Vegas does not set lines on a 50/50 premise...thats one of the biggest misconceptions in sports gambling...period
Books are out to get the biggest possible advantage over the player they can. Just like they do in all of their table games and slots. Vegas is not afraid to set a line that gets 1 way action if they think they have a large advantage over time. Keep in mind that books have players at a disadvantage from the beginning with the vig/juice. Books are in for the long haul...we as players are in for the short term...big difference
I have to agree with everything here.
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Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:
Vegas does not set lines on a 50/50 premise...thats one of the biggest misconceptions in sports gambling...period
Books are out to get the biggest possible advantage over the player they can. Just like they do in all of their table games and slots. Vegas is not afraid to set a line that gets 1 way action if they think they have a large advantage over time. Keep in mind that books have players at a disadvantage from the beginning with the vig/juice. Books are in for the long haul...we as players are in for the short term...big difference
do you guys think the sites that show %s of whom people are betting on sides, are accurate?
It's funny, I've argued this ad naseum on here and with friends. And my opinion is "No way, No how". Although to a degree %'s bet is relatively insignificant compared to $ bet (there is NOT a direct coorelation between the two). But my main point is that there is no way in hell I could call up the Las Vegas Hilton Sportbook 10 minutes before tip-off and have them tell me who they "needed".
And people claim they have paid to get this information. There is no way in hell beforehand that they would ever disclose that information to anyone. It's just people out there trying to make a buck off selling insignificant and/or inaccurate information......welcome to the world we live in.
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Quote Originally Posted by boatboatboat:
do you guys think the sites that show %s of whom people are betting on sides, are accurate?
It's funny, I've argued this ad naseum on here and with friends. And my opinion is "No way, No how". Although to a degree %'s bet is relatively insignificant compared to $ bet (there is NOT a direct coorelation between the two). But my main point is that there is no way in hell I could call up the Las Vegas Hilton Sportbook 10 minutes before tip-off and have them tell me who they "needed".
And people claim they have paid to get this information. There is no way in hell beforehand that they would ever disclose that information to anyone. It's just people out there trying to make a buck off selling insignificant and/or inaccurate information......welcome to the world we live in.
Was a post in the gaming industry forum... it was with the guy from betjamaica.... was alot of good questions and insight on lines...its worth a read in my opinion
I just looked for it and couldn't find it.
link?
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Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:
Was a post in the gaming industry forum... it was with the guy from betjamaica.... was alot of good questions and insight on lines...its worth a read in my opinion
correct vegas moved a line why? theyve been around doing this quite a few years pretty succesfully how many times have we lost on that good ole heartbreaker THE HOOK been there done that !!!!!! amazing the probabilty of determining an outcome with sooooooo many varables yes vegas is pretty good at what they do and yes they ALSO GET BURIED ON SOME GAMES i guess thats why its called gambling win some lose some beave is just taking his valuable tym out of his busy schedule and viewing his playz on the probability vegas is more accurate then kempom keep up the great work im certainly greatful beaverfan24
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correct vegas moved a line why? theyve been around doing this quite a few years pretty succesfully how many times have we lost on that good ole heartbreaker THE HOOK been there done that !!!!!! amazing the probabilty of determining an outcome with sooooooo many varables yes vegas is pretty good at what they do and yes they ALSO GET BURIED ON SOME GAMES i guess thats why its called gambling win some lose some beave is just taking his valuable tym out of his busy schedule and viewing his playz on the probability vegas is more accurate then kempom keep up the great work im certainly greatful beaverfan24
No. The point of the system is to be on the same side as Vegas. When there is a large difference like in the Xavier game, we FADE Kenpom and side with Vegas
I'm confused here as well. If Vegas has Xavier at -14 and KenPom at -18... then wouldn't you want to take the -14? Technically we aren't fading KenPom here are we? Just getting his same pick at a better number? I'm missing the fade? To me the correct choice would be if it was opposite... then we fade away? What am I missing?
If Vegas was at -18 and KenPom at -14 then would we take Xavier???? Why would I fade a potential 4 free points between the 2?
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Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:
No. The point of the system is to be on the same side as Vegas. When there is a large difference like in the Xavier game, we FADE Kenpom and side with Vegas
I'm confused here as well. If Vegas has Xavier at -14 and KenPom at -18... then wouldn't you want to take the -14? Technically we aren't fading KenPom here are we? Just getting his same pick at a better number? I'm missing the fade? To me the correct choice would be if it was opposite... then we fade away? What am I missing?
If Vegas was at -18 and KenPom at -14 then would we take Xavier???? Why would I fade a potential 4 free points between the 2?
I understand the part of samford +17. Kenpom had Col Charleston to win by 23, an additional 6 points. If Vegas had the same idea as Kenpom it would've been +23 for Samford, so basically it's a larger cover, knowing that there are guarantees on winning and covering.
I tried the Kenpom for the first time yesterday with a couple parlays, The moneyline was a no go, but got the parlay covers on C of C, Kansas, Morgan. $2 buck bet, and took Morgan $10 to cover.
good luck on trying to win some nice bucks
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I understand the part of samford +17. Kenpom had Col Charleston to win by 23, an additional 6 points. If Vegas had the same idea as Kenpom it would've been +23 for Samford, so basically it's a larger cover, knowing that there are guarantees on winning and covering.
I tried the Kenpom for the first time yesterday with a couple parlays, The moneyline was a no go, but got the parlay covers on C of C, Kansas, Morgan. $2 buck bet, and took Morgan $10 to cover.
I'm confused here as well. If Vegas has Xavier at -14 and KenPom at -18... then wouldn't you want to take the -14? Technically we aren't fading KenPom here are we? Just getting his same pick at a better number? I'm missing the fade? To me the correct choice would be if it was opposite... then we fade away? What am I missing?
If Vegas was at -18 and KenPom at -14 then would we take Xavier???? Why would I fade a potential 4 free points between the 2?
I understand this whole thing is very confusing. I will try to make it as simple as possible.
Vegas has set the line at Xavier -14. Kenpom's prediction has Xavier winning by 18. So we can assume that if Mr.Kenpom was placing a bet on this game, he would take Xavier-14 since his prediction has them covering the number rather easily.
This system FADES kenpom's picks. When there is a large difference (qualifications for a "large" difference can be found in post #1) we side with Vegas and fade kenpom. I don't know how to make this easier to understand. If anybody has a simpler way of explaining this system feel free to add.
As many have already asked, what is the logic of fading kenpom's picks? He has a very advanced way of picking winners and his information is very accurate.
The answer is: Vegas usually has a very good reason for making lines that seem off or strange to the naked eye. Kenpom can not account for injuries, situtional plays, revenge, and other factor that influence the line.
So the basic principle is: If the line is "off" according to kenpom's predictions, there is probably a good reason for that and we will bet on Vegas' side.
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Quote Originally Posted by fizzle254:
I'm confused here as well. If Vegas has Xavier at -14 and KenPom at -18... then wouldn't you want to take the -14? Technically we aren't fading KenPom here are we? Just getting his same pick at a better number? I'm missing the fade? To me the correct choice would be if it was opposite... then we fade away? What am I missing?
If Vegas was at -18 and KenPom at -14 then would we take Xavier???? Why would I fade a potential 4 free points between the 2?
I understand this whole thing is very confusing. I will try to make it as simple as possible.
Vegas has set the line at Xavier -14. Kenpom's prediction has Xavier winning by 18. So we can assume that if Mr.Kenpom was placing a bet on this game, he would take Xavier-14 since his prediction has them covering the number rather easily.
This system FADES kenpom's picks. When there is a large difference (qualifications for a "large" difference can be found in post #1) we side with Vegas and fade kenpom. I don't know how to make this easier to understand. If anybody has a simpler way of explaining this system feel free to add.
As many have already asked, what is the logic of fading kenpom's picks? He has a very advanced way of picking winners and his information is very accurate.
The answer is: Vegas usually has a very good reason for making lines that seem off or strange to the naked eye. Kenpom can not account for injuries, situtional plays, revenge, and other factor that influence the line.
So the basic principle is: If the line is "off" according to kenpom's predictions, there is probably a good reason for that and we will bet on Vegas' side.
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