My system relies heavily on the fact that underdogs are getting undervalued in terms of total pts and favorites are getting overvalued in terms of pace, adjusted offense, and adjusted defense. Often times a line will be determined that x team is better than y team by z amount of pts so they have to make that the spread. Then the normal combined over/under based on both teams adjusted o adjusted d and adjusted pace. Often times my total over/under will match what vegas has but they will have the underdog’s total too low. There’s not as much of a market for these picks as most people don’t take them so they don’t really care all that much that they’re missing by a couple pts. That’s where we pounce.
Think about it this way. A total game over/under is not hard to calculate. But with that being said they’re going to have to give the underdog x amount of pts in a spread. Both teams total has to match the exact total game over/under or they’d be giving away free $. They know they’re off but like I said most betters focus on the game total o/u and spread not these. We can use this to our advantage to get a 3-4 and sometimes even 5-6 pt advantage over the house.
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