December 13-5 +10.1 units
January 11-11 +3.1 units; 2-unit plays 4-1; 3-unit plays: 2-0
Hey guys, unreal push on the St. Peter's total on Sunday. This is the time of year where I have found success looking for teams to be "on" or "against" depending on the situation (such as Manhattan (on) and Wyoming (against)). I'm looking for teams that have found or developed a new identity and teams that are looking for reasons to pack it in for the season (that is where the system will come in in a few weeks). Anyway, I grabbed this total as soon as it opened on Matchbook and I"m on UNDER 127.5 Wyoming/UTEP for 2-units (I grabbed it early because I liked the play but also if the under got pounded down far enough I might try to middle it tonight - so tell all your friends that will be chasing their early evening losses to pound this under down so I can middle ) Anyway, here are a few of the reasons why I like this play:
We have two of the worst 3-pt shooting and rebounding teams in the MWC.
Wyoming isn't getting to the line very often and are not putting their opponents on the line as well.
Wyoming is averaging just 58 a game in league play and I think we have a solid chance to get a lower figure than that tonight.
Wyoming has been crushed by injuries but now they are in an even worse spot now of trying to get guys that aren't 100% back into the starting lineup and messing up everyone roles and playing time. They are totally a mess on offense right now and this is a bad time to run into a UNLV defense that is allowing less than 60 a game despite having played uptempo BYU and TCU and offensively efficient Col St and New Mexico.
UNLV has also been more than happy to play a slightly slower tempo than was expected this season. There has been 66 possessions or less in each of UNLV's last four games, in those games they have taken an average of 52 shots per game and have been outrebounded in 3 of the 4 games as well.
With all their injuries and guys playing out of position and struggling with roles, Wyoming has slowed down even more as they have taken less than 50 shots per game in their last five and in those five games they have gotten only an average of 6 offensive rebounds and have gotten to the line less than 17 times (a place that they only convert 65% of the time).
Now that Wyoming has gotten some of their starters back, I expect that they will abandon the zone that has given up such good looks over the last 5 or so games. At home this season Wyoming has given up less than 60 a game as well and they know that they will need to compete on the defensive end (a la Air Force) to have a chance to win this game in the last 5 minutes.
Do I love this play? No, but its a pseudo-play against Wyoming as they have the potential to possibly be held under 50 points tonight. Also, UNLV has been inconsistent on offense as well and they are likely to see some defensive looks from Wyoming that they aren't prepared for. It's not a lock that UNLV will put up 65+ so this is why I feel the under 127.5 is a good investment. I wouldn't want to be on the over as one (or both) teams will have to be significantly better on offense than they have been all conference season to get this one over. This is another spot that I feel we should get our money on, I don't know if this one will hit, but if we are consistently on this side of the numbers I feel confident that we will up for the college hoops season. Good luck with whatever you decide, we are all in this together.
*I'm sure some will ask if they should take a worse total like the 126.5 that it is currently at at most places. I never like getting a worse number than was available when it first opened, but in this case I would still bet it myself if I could only get 126.5.
UNDER 127.5 UNLV/WYOMING for 2-units on Matchbook