Thursday "Presystem" Plays

Quote Originally Posted by TDHCentral:

Yeh i was hoping to lock these in last night, but my book didn't have any lines up before I needed to go to sleep.  Gonna wait to see if I get some better lines, but do you think it's worth buying pts?

TIA ...

P.S.  Started working on the 1st half results last night.  Hopefully get to finish going thru the rest tonight or tomr.

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



I wouldn't worry about buying points - but if you missed the best line you just have to decide if you should sit out for the night or take the lesser of the lines.  That's the tough call but now we all know that we might have to get on these lines the night before or as soon as we can (last year the majority of the lines went up - not down - some maybe this is just by chance, or maybe it isn't) we will soon see.

Quote Originally Posted by cheetahmsl:

hey kine good luck to you but i was wanting to tell you this i think its kind of funny and ironic a vegas tout is stealing your plays and putting them out two days in a row he has your same plays out there haha your getting someones attention

Quote Originally Posted by jgimnasio:

So quick question why arent we looking at pepperdine @ St. Marys'???

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



St Mary's is a Top 25 Kenpom team, we only look at teams OUTSIDE of Kenpom's top 180 (those teams are much more likely to not cover big numbers and don't have nearly the "home court advantage" that top teams possess)

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Thanks for the heads up, I post these plays for everyone to use as we are all in this together, but if this is true it really frustrates me that someone would charge people for these plays (and possibility hurt our profitability on the games to boot).

If anyone has any idea on what (if anything) we should do about this (if this is true), I'm all ears.  I know absolutely nothing about touts and their industry. 

What I do know is that there is no way the Monroe game should have moved away from us.  Most games involving Monroe all season (especially on the road) the line has climbed, the fact that it has dropped a point is truly shocking. 

These "types" of games have been so far off most people's radar its funny.  On Matchbook, these games have very few bets posted and accepted and what little line movement occurs almost always goes toward the favorite.  On Matchbook today, all three of our "presystem" games have had money flying all day and we are getting the worst of the line in all three situations (and that never happened last season).  This might be a case were we have to get on these lines right when the open, no matter what we "think" the line will do.   

Quote Originally Posted by Huntdog2:

Kine, please accept my friend request. I want to PM you something important.

Quote Originally Posted by cheetahmsl:

ummm no problem for the heads up i am not sure about other days but i started following you on your last play and noticed it that day as well as today i could be wrong but all 4 of your plays last two days with the exact same line i could pm you the site from today if you would like

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

The system is very simple and most can easily figure out what the system's plays are (and that is fine, I'm very proud of that fact). 

The beauty in the system last year was that despite its success, most bettors still couldn't bring themselves to bet on these terrible teams, looks like that might change, but it still doesn't change the fact that the opening line still gives the home team too much credit. 

I don't mind at all if the system catches on as I am working under the assumption that its we are all in this together and that our goal to beat the books, my only problem would be that if some tout was taking people's money to send them what we are enjoying for free - that is pretty weak.

Most people's attitude is to worry and/or the "woe is me" attitude.  Don't let that be you, doesn't matter at all what the consensus are (except maybe costing us .5 or 1pt of better underdog value).  The system isn't based on line movements and consensus and such so unless we push/lose a ton of games by the hook or 1-pt - it really shouldn't effect us that much at all.

Lastly, we are all hoping that the system is very profitable for games/weeks/years to come, but we know that they system will run its course at some point, the main thing is that we learn to adjust the way we bet to be better gamblers in the future.  I think most would agree that they are now looking at games that never really considered before and even more they are betting on sides that they wouldn't have bet on before (and are winning).  These are things that we can build on (said in Herm Edwards voice). 

Quote Originally Posted by THE_SAINT:

I see:

Georgia S (57%)   Tenn Chat (43%)

UL Monroe (59%)   Middle Tenn St. (41%)

S Alabama (54%) W Kentucky (46%)