Posted:
#51
Another added play, small play value on........
LONG BTCH ST +1 (no less)
THIS THREAD SHOWS VALUES 17-2 in 2 wks
Posted:
#53
[Quote: Originally Posted by hawgpix]
I figure spreads and look for values. I am moving my value index to what I think will produce the absolute best record now. I am an action junkie by heart and this is difficult, but I am ready to get paid!! The 2 categories I have seen most consistency from are home dogs with 9 or more pts of value and away dogs with 6or more points of value.
So I guess the obvious question at this point is what method do you use to figure your owns spreads?
Posted:
#54
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:
Quote Originally Posted by hawgpix:
I figure spreads and look for values. I am moving my value index to what I think will produce the absolute best record now. I am an action junkie by heart and this is difficult, but I am ready to get paid!! The 2 categories I have seen most consistency from are home dogs with 9 or more pts of value and away dogs with 6or more points of value.
So I guess the obvious question at this point is what method do you use to figure your owns spreads?
Not trying to be rude, but I've got lots of time and money invested to just tell you how to figure the way I do. I don't have a problem posting pix daily. I will be the first to admit that this is about the 20th angle I've checked to wind up with 1NFL, 1NCAAFB, and hopefully 1 CBB method that works. Seen some work great for half a season and be equally bad the last half. I like the idea that I hit about 70% of numbers within 2 of vegas, so it gives me more confidence in mine that are off. Also, over last 3 weeks, I've been closer to outcome with my lines than book line on more games than not. This is still what I consider a trial, even though my confidence and bets are building quickly. Proceed with caution, and I will keep the plays listed. GL 2U
Posted:
#57
There was nothing rude about your post, no offense taken.
It sounds like you are on to a solid method considering your results, personally I would love to hear the logic behind your calculations. I've found that by sharing your methods you can often improve them with intelligent feedback. I have read through a lot of different styles over the years, I am curious to know where yours fits in.
Feel free to PM me if you are interested in discussing. Or feel free to ignore it. Best of luck either way.
Posted:
#58
I'm sure you have put much time and effort into this system, but the highest percentage play so far, this year, in CBB, is the road fav. Almost 55%. Sounds peculiar, that dogs at home have not covered at a higher rate, but true. If you take a selective sample, that may not be a fact, but overall if you played every game on a road favorite, you would have cashed at 55%, the highest percentage out of all the possibilities. Not saying the other options are that much lower, but the road favorites are the highest for sure. That being said, we all know that at best gambling against a point spread is no better than 50% anyway if you play every game. BOL
Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:
I'm sure you have put much time and effort into this system, but the highest percentage play so far, this year, in CBB, is the road fav. Almost 55%. Sounds peculiar, that dogs at home have not covered at a higher rate, but true. If you take a selective sample, that may not be a fact, but overall if you played every game on a road favorite, you would have cashed at 55%, the highest percentage out of all the possibilities. Not saying the other options are that much lower, but the road favorites are the highest for sure. That being said, we all know that at best gambling against a point spread is no better than 50% anyway if you play every game. BOL
I'm sure you have put much time and effort into this system, but the highest percentage play so far, this year, in CBB, is the road fav. Almost 55%. Sounds peculiar, that dogs at home have not covered at a higher rate, but true. If you take a selective sample, that may not be a fact, but overall if you played every game on a road favorite, you would have cashed at 55%, the highest percentage out of all the possibilities. Not saying the other options are that much lower, but the road favorites are the highest for sure. That being said, we all know that at best gambling against a point spread is no better than 50% anyway if you play every game. BOL
Good info, but I don't see a connection with what I'm doing. Unless it's that the only scenario I will not play is a road favorite. Yes, what I am doing is very situational. Last nite there were 8 home dogs and I had a small play on 1. Big play was away dog. I will be playing home favs too. As far as playing every game, I wouldn't do or recommend. If I did, and this deal is working, I would be over 50%. This would mostly be due to winning a higher % on higher values and like you say, coin toss the rest. This is why I am still grading everything to try and find the best cutoff for value needed vs profit. Would you rather go 50-30 or 9-1. Some argue either way. I want both! Thanks for input. GL
Posted:
#61
Haven't heard any shit, so guess I'm the only dumbass putting money down the tubes. Thankful for that, sorry to all my local buds that went down with me. Nothin like a 3 day win streak to build you up, one night to crash back down. Putting the whole thing back to nearly a watch instead of bet. Not to mention how much I'm already down.
Bigs now 8-11 Smalls 2-4 WOW
Not much tonite, tight card. 1 small play on
LOY MARYMOUNT +11.5 or more
GOOD LUCK 2NITE
Posted:
#65
Well I got 3 out of Pitt and played as a BIG, but looks like 2.5 was high point here. I will leave as a small for record purpose, so.....
BIGS 12-13 SMALLS 6-8
Unless we have some 2pt line moves, only one play for Monday....
Feel like the well has got to go dry, but gotta go with value. This line is off by 8 pts, so take
OKLAHOMA +22 BIG PLAY BOL
Posted:
#68
Hate to even bring it up, but on a nice 11-6 run since that 3-7 start. BIGS finally hit above .500 since posting. With 14-13 record, still out some juice. Headed the right direction now. Smalls still down, 6-8. About to break out I hope. Still gathering new angles every week, and have seen 
on a couple that are nasTy. Yeah thats with a T! Don't know who's paying attention, but check my away dogs, especially the lesser bet schools. Pretty nice record. I have been adding extra last few myself, but do what you want.
Possibles tomorrow:
PROV +8 (small unless makes 9)
TEX TCH +5 (small if<6)
COL ST +8.5 (small if <8.5)
N Iowa -10 or less (new added angle) small
More info tomorrow
Posted:
#69
Lockin in on:
PROV +8.5 Small now, will double up if goes to 9
COLO ST +8 Small til +8.5
TEX TCH +6 (MINIMUM 4 BIG PLAY)BIGGIE SIZE ME
N IOWA -10 Gonna label this as lean, meaning I'm playing small, but tread at your own risk. Don't know an exact back record for this new angle, just know it's 6-3 last 7 days. I'll run angle a couple days and either scrap or add to smal plays.
Posted:
#72
BIGS 14-14
smalls 7-9 Lightin it up boys!!!
Didn't have time to post yesterday, but it was more of same. 2-1 on big plays 1-5 on smalls. Luckily I have been adding more units to the stronger angles. I play more like 1U,2U, 4U on real strong stuff. These have been all that's kept me up. (Plays like the 2 guaranteed wins the other day) Anyway found a new angle using my #'s that predicts value dogs (VD). I played it real small yesterday (100ea) and of course it went 5-7. It was ok with me because I had already figured a letdown was coming. Back tested 20 days results:
Feb 4th 4-4
5th 1-3
6th 13-7
7th 2-0
8th 3-1
9th 2-2
10th 7-4
11th 3-4
12th 1-1
13th 10-11
14th 2-2
15th 1-1
16th 4-2
17th 9-5
18th 8-3
19th 0-1
20th 23-15
21st 2-0
22nd 3-0
23rd 2-0
Figured it was due a dog day, trending past. Also upping my units tonite on VD's. More to come with VD and superplay tonite.
Posted:
#74
Thurs nite- smalls on....
New Orl+12
Tenn Mart+18.5
Indiana +12.5
Boise +9
Hawaii+13
UCDavis+1
BIG PLAY is.........
S CARO +16
And the GIANT, POD, (that's play of decade)(however, win or lose, I will have another POD saturday 4U), LOCK, GUARANTEED to win, BET YOUR HOUSE ON IT, STRONGEST game EVER,.....or what I am calling a SUPER is.....................drum roll....................................
TULSA +18.5 
damn what an ugly color..why is baby-shit yellow even an option. Bet you were thinking Tulsa the whole time, weren't ya? GL2all
Posted:
#75
Thurs nite VD's(valu dogs for those not paying attention)
There is a lot of these damn things at times, so I will use covers closing line for grading purposes.
Georgia, Charleston, Tenn Mart, S Caro, Ariz, SF, Pepperd, and Santa Claus. Man these colors mess with my eyes. Any questions just give me a call.
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