Posted:
#1
24-17-1 overall, 9-6-1 on GOY plays....
Wednesday recap:
Lost last night with Rice in a tough one....Rice was outscored 19-9 in overtime to blow the cover. I guess if they would have scored more than 18 points in the first half things would have gone better. I definitely feel like it was the right play so the confidence isn't wavered. Went 3-1 on the smaller plays so there was some positive from that.
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Thursday:
For Thursday I am loving the Sun Belt Conference and 22nd ranked team in the nation at 78 points per game. North Texas is on the road, I know, not the best environment considering they have lost their last three road games and are coming off of a horrible home loss to Louisiana Monroe. That exact scenario is one of the reasons I love them tonight at Arkansas St. North Texas is 5-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 3-6 points. They are also 20-12 against the spread in road games over the past three seasons. The road team is 13-4-1 against the spread in the last 18 meetings while the underdog in the game is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings. For tonight, I am going big on the North Texas Mean Green!
The home team has only won 5 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Of those 10 matchups, Arkansas St. only managed one home victory and three victories overall. Jacob Holmen's injury isn't going to be anything big to worry about. He has only averaged 15% possession production all season. North Texas shoots 48% from the field on the road which means they aren't intimidated. They also waxed Arkansas St. at home earlier in the year by 19 points. They shot 55% from the field and 58% from the perimeter. Arkansas State are only 3-6 against the spread at home this season. I know, I know....Arkansas St. is undefeated at home.
Besides the Denver blowout, here is Arkansas St.'s margin of victory in their home contests: 1, 3, 4, 9, 8, and 12. They haven't blown anybody out and they certainly don't play the defense to shut teams down. Arkansas St. has the 210th ranked defense in efficiency. North Texas dominate Arkansas State statistically in FTA/FGA, 3pt shooting, FG shooting, turnover ratio, and offensive efficiency. I know they aren't a defensive dominant team but when you average 78 points per game there aren't a lot of teams to worry about keeping up with you. Arkansas St. average 68 points per game and have only covered two of their last five at home.
One more thing to look at is coming on Saturday. Arkansas St. has a big matchup with rival Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday afternoon that could be a game to clinch the Sun Belt West division. North Texas have nothing to lose and are coming off of a crushing home loss. They are going to be playing with some anger and pride to revenge that loss. North Texas have an RPI ranking of 157 and Arkansas St. is at 193, mostly due to playing Texas Tech, Kansas, Rice, and LSU in the non-conference schedule.
Thursday Underdog Special GOY # 17: North Texas + 5
Wednesday recap:
Lost last night with Rice in a tough one....Rice was outscored 19-9 in overtime to blow the cover. I guess if they would have scored more than 18 points in the first half things would have gone better. I definitely feel like it was the right play so the confidence isn't wavered. Went 3-1 on the smaller plays so there was some positive from that.
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Thursday:
For Thursday I am loving the Sun Belt Conference and 22nd ranked team in the nation at 78 points per game. North Texas is on the road, I know, not the best environment considering they have lost their last three road games and are coming off of a horrible home loss to Louisiana Monroe. That exact scenario is one of the reasons I love them tonight at Arkansas St. North Texas is 5-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 3-6 points. They are also 20-12 against the spread in road games over the past three seasons. The road team is 13-4-1 against the spread in the last 18 meetings while the underdog in the game is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings. For tonight, I am going big on the North Texas Mean Green!
The home team has only won 5 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Of those 10 matchups, Arkansas St. only managed one home victory and three victories overall. Jacob Holmen's injury isn't going to be anything big to worry about. He has only averaged 15% possession production all season. North Texas shoots 48% from the field on the road which means they aren't intimidated. They also waxed Arkansas St. at home earlier in the year by 19 points. They shot 55% from the field and 58% from the perimeter. Arkansas State are only 3-6 against the spread at home this season. I know, I know....Arkansas St. is undefeated at home.
Besides the Denver blowout, here is Arkansas St.'s margin of victory in their home contests: 1, 3, 4, 9, 8, and 12. They haven't blown anybody out and they certainly don't play the defense to shut teams down. Arkansas St. has the 210th ranked defense in efficiency. North Texas dominate Arkansas State statistically in FTA/FGA, 3pt shooting, FG shooting, turnover ratio, and offensive efficiency. I know they aren't a defensive dominant team but when you average 78 points per game there aren't a lot of teams to worry about keeping up with you. Arkansas St. average 68 points per game and have only covered two of their last five at home.
One more thing to look at is coming on Saturday. Arkansas St. has a big matchup with rival Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday afternoon that could be a game to clinch the Sun Belt West division. North Texas have nothing to lose and are coming off of a crushing home loss. They are going to be playing with some anger and pride to revenge that loss. North Texas have an RPI ranking of 157 and Arkansas St. is at 193, mostly due to playing Texas Tech, Kansas, Rice, and LSU in the non-conference schedule.
Thursday Underdog Special GOY # 17: North Texas + 5
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GL...another solid purdue win 
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