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Teams that won by DD first meeting losing the next?..

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Posted: #76
Thanks BTL - that is cool!
 
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Posted: #77
1-22 7-2 +960

1-23 3-2 +160
 
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Posted: #78
Bandos you are just following the 10-19 ml and Beathelocal , you are following all ats, do i have this right?  thanks for the hard work
 
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Posted: #79
Is Sienna Rider a play being rider lost by 13 earlier?
 
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Posted: #80
Sienna has won 7 out of last 8 in this series. FWIW of course-
 
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Posted: #81
1-24

G Mason @ Delaware +7....Delaware lost by 9 @ G Mason....


Bandos - I hope that you don't mind that I'm using your forum for this tracking....

Good LUCK everyone....
 
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Posted: #82
Go right ahead my friend.  You are playing/tracking all same season revenge, regardless of first game margin/point spread, right?  and only when they go back home (which is why Rider is NOT one of your plays)?

Gonna go back through and break the 10-19 down by dog/fav




 
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Posted: #83
7 games have fit the 10-19 point spread.  I think some of my initial tallies were a bit off.  If there is a mistake here, please point it out but I double checked every game.

Dogs: ATS 2-1, ML, 2-1, +75 (won +275 on LoyMD, lost -200 on Marist and Manhattan)
Loyola MD ATS W/ML W
Marist ATS W/ML L
Manhattan ATS L/ML L

Favorites: ATS, 4-0, ML 4-0 (approx +80)
St John's, VCU, W Kent, S AL

Total:
ATS: 6-1
ML: 5-2, +150

No idea what will happen to the ATS numbers, but the ML should end up around 50% if history serves us right. 

GL


 
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Posted: #84
Bandos - Yes, what I play/track is the loss on road return home/revenge ATS....

I need to go back and go over the record for this year myself.....
I have been playing this angle for years and ATS success is very high.....

I will update this yr's record when I have a moment....

Good Luck
 
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Posted: #85
Rider is getting 1.5 tonight against siena. they lost by dd last time. does this help?
 
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Posted: #86
i've been looking for a system that actually works and this is a really good one. i just looked up and a lot of teams that won by dd have second games coming up, keep an eye on wofford.
 
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Posted: #87

Quote Originally Posted by suckerg:

Rider is getting 1.5 tonight against siena. they lost by dd last time. does this help?

Rider is on the road this time. They are just playing returns at Home.

 
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Posted: #88
ok, thanks now i understand. just so i'm clear when the playing home, do they have to be dogs or does it matter?
 
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Posted: #89

Great thread guys!  

Good information and stats to back it up. This is what the forum is supposed to be for. Just a suggestion to make it easier on you, but what if everyone following took a conference to track these situations? In any event keep up the good work and appreciate the info. Already put one on my calendar after looking at todays games: 2/2 Hofstra @ George Mason, GM lost 87-74 @ Hof 1/5

 
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Posted: #90
I'll take the MAAC! i'll keep you posted
 
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Posted: #91
for the record my old system was based on something similar to this..

however i based it on wheather a team covered the spread by 15+ and vice versa (lost spread by 15+).  If a team covers by more than 15 points, in the subsequent matchup you bet on the opposing team no matter what the spread is..

What i picked up on was that the system was that it was really only affective int the beginning of the season. It was astounding as my first 23 picks, i went 21-2 (with the majority of the dogs winning straight up) using the system  and then as a week or two went by the results began to completely reverse on me and i lost 11 straight. Crazy.


When i started trying this system i thought to myself,, there has got to be a way to have a 'greater' advantage against these books, i need to put myself in their shoes.. So i figured if one team dramatically covers or dramatically doesnt cover, the public is more often than not will follow the trend.  Sooo, the linesmakers will purposely inflate (or deflate) the spread based on what a specific team did in their previous game.

What i think happens is that early in the season, even the linesmakers are unsure of a teams potential when you are considering the spread so they make significant adjustment on the subsequent matchups earlier in the season and this is where this system imo really excels....

as the season progresses one or two blowouts further on in the season will not influence the linesmakers where it would early in the season.

Good luck to all,, just my thoughts on something similar i looked into awhile back




 
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Posted: #92

Quote Originally Posted by suckerg:

ok, thanks now i understand. just so i'm clear when the playing home, do they have to be dogs or does it matter?

Doesn't matter. As long as the team lost on the road, in the re-match, take them at home :)

 
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Posted: #93

I have found this thread quite interesting.

My question for Bando or whoever would like to answer is:

Should it be factored if the team what won by 10-19 points was favored by DD. In other words, that they were expected to win by DD?

I also wanted to clarify that this trend is meant to apply only to the first home rematch after a dd loss by the home team?

Thanks

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #94
OD -

Should it be factored if the team what won by 10-19 points was favored by DD. In other words, that they were expected to win by DD?

I would think that could matter a bunch, but it hasn't been tracked or proved

I also wanted to clarify that this trend is meant to apply only to the first home rematch after a dd loss by the home team?

No, the LOSING team was on the road and lost by DD, then you play them at home (or at least consider them).
 
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Posted: #95
It did not work in the case with Butler as they lost by DD at Wisc GB and then Wisc GB beat them at BUTLER as a DD dog.
 
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Posted: #96
1-22 7-2 +960

1-23 3-2 +160

1-24 0-1 -220

No Situations for 1-25-11
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by troy9828:

for the record my old system was based on something similar to this..

however i based it on wheather a team covered the spread by 15+ and vice versa (lost spread by 15+).  If a team covers by more than 15 points, in the subsequent matchup you bet on the opposing team no matter what the spread is..

What i picked up on was that the system was that it was really only affective int the beginning of the season. It was astounding as my first 23 picks, i went 21-2 (with the majority of the dogs winning straight up) using the system  and then as a week or two went by the results began to completely reverse on me and i lost 11 straight. Crazy.


When i started trying this system i thought to myself,, there has got to be a way to have a 'greater' advantage against these books, i need to put myself in their shoes.. So i figured if one team dramatically covers or dramatically doesnt cover, the public is more often than not will follow the trend.  Sooo, the linesmakers will purposely inflate (or deflate) the spread based on what a specific team did in their previous game.

What i think happens is that early in the season, even the linesmakers are unsure of a teams potential when you are considering the spread so they make significant adjustment on the subsequent matchups earlier in the season and this is where this system imo really excels....

as the season progresses one or two blowouts further on in the season will not influence the linesmakers where it would early in the season.

Good luck to all,, just my thoughts on something similar i looked into awhile back





Troy,

Same thing happend to me in I think 1999 or 2000.....it was horrific, that is why you have to play them all no matter what you think...(aka the Delaware Game last night) and stick with it.....it has proven to be profitable....But 0-12 is tough to stomach at times hahahaha
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by Jimguerr:

It did not work in the case with Butler as they lost by DD at Wisc GB and then Wisc GB beat them at BUTLER as a DD dog.

No system/play works 100% of the time....
 
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Posted: #99
i took rider last night on the road and they covered. and won outright
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by over-dosed:

Should it be factored if the team what won by 10-19 points was favored by DD. In other words, that they were expected to win by DD?

 


Ockham's razor




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