System Clarification and System Play Alert Tomorrow (Feb 25th)

2 of idaho best players might be out.

GL KP

KineProfessor, I have been following your system notices and must have lost or missed the one that distinguishes how to play the over/under....As for the pointspread and Kempom ranking I am still a little fuzzy there too.....I am not a professor or claim to be intelligent, but could you kindly explain them both again for me or make me a friend(which I am) and  send me an email......thanks

you the man  

then bet on portland then sydney

Thats pretty lame Kline, 5 Dimes had the line, Pinnacle did as well and both of those books are larger than Matchbook.

Keep honest tracking, it will help you down the road.

BOL King

GL KP

Looks good. Nice work.

kp

way to go, i will be on your play tonight.

thanks

Hail.....

Always check out ur info   

 out

Nice job KP

NICE Job my man.  I liked NC - Green.  But passed on New Orleans, my loss. 

BOL my Friend!

Dr. Kine,

Does you system warn against the public pounding the shit out of the suggested play (Idaho - 61%) and vegas moving the line against the public (+9 shifted to +9.5)?  It appears it moved to 8.5 for a short time then shot to 9.5. This looks like a red flag to me.....

Thought someone would attack me, surprised its a covers lineman

Lame would be 1). Not sharing information, systems, or claiming "inside info" without posting it, like most on this site do. 2). Not posting season records and units won or lost 3). Never posting write-ups and just using this site as a record keeping tool 4) Coming into someone's thread and bashing the crap out of them for a loss (which I never see a linesman reprimand) - trust me when I say, I don't do any of those things. 

In fact, when anyone EVER asks me how I cap, what tools I use, what angles I use, and why I like a play, I always tell them EVERY SINGLE thing I do. 

Let me say yet again that I don't like systems at all.  It normally takes me 1-2 hours to fully study a game and I only play/post one out of every ten games I study.  There are tons of angles I use in February and I tried to condense them into a system so I can narrow down the games I study.  It just so happens that when I combined the angles I use to narrow down the games, all the games that fit my angles were hitting at a high percentage (so I posted it IMMEDIATELY for the betterment of the board). 

One of the main angles of the system is that betters have a LONG MEMORY and so when the see the Citadels, the Samfords, the Tulanes, the Towsons, the UC Irvines, the Pepperdines, the Georgia Southerns, the Fordhams, and the Marists of the worlds, they have a memory from when those teams burned them this year and laid an egg (often when they took 15+ points with them against a good team by the way) and even though they like the line they won't bet those teams because of the fear of being burned AGAIN.  THIS IS WHERE THE VALUE IS AT THIS LATE IN THE SEASON.  In fact, 3 of the last 4 games that fit the system (and about 60+% of all the games of the system thusfar), the line moved UP towards the favorite making the system even stronger.  This tells me that we have found a very nice angle as people are still willing to lay huge numbers (even with mediocre/crappy teams) against the bottom tier teams from kenpom.

Let me just say that I can tell you significant information about all 8 contributing basketball players on Samford, Citadel, UT Chatt, and a host of other "bad" teams (this just means I have no life by the way), but I had NEVER EVEN HEARD OF UMKC until yesterday.  I had to google the initals to even know the name of the school.  How can I know what type of value to assign to teams like this when they play games and in conferences that don't regularly have lines?  Teams from the Atlantic East conference (even though Binghamton and Boston U SOMETIMES have a line) they don't fit the system, also teams from the Atlantic Sun, the Great West, the Northeast, the Patriot League, the Southland, the Southwestern Atlantic, and the Summit conference ARE NOT SYSTEM PLAYS. 

You will find ZERO teams from these conferences involved in this system that is 29-7 since Feb 13th.  I even posted the fact (in all my threads) that the system was intended to run from Feb 13th till Feb 21st originally as I was afraid the emotion of "Senior Night" could influence the results.  We agreed in one of the original threads to extend it through this week and see what happens to the results.

People are still more than welcome to use my system on these other conferences and teams as well (and I would argue that taking 6+ points against mediocre to terrible teams is a great idea), but it isn't considered a system play as I have designed and clearly explained this system. 

People are more than welcome to modify the system or say that I am full of crap and fade the system (although I wouldn't recommend that). 

The system as originally created is 29-7, if you include games from teams listed in the list of conferences above that aren't system plays, it is 30-10.  I am not hiding anything and posted THESE FACTS in the original post of this thread as well. 

To be clear I work very hard and spend tons of time trying to be an asset to this forum and help my fellow betters as we are all in this together and I don't appreciate being called lame or even the accusation that I'm trying to be dishonest.  I hate systems and could care less if this one crashes and burns AND I WILL BE THE FIRST to admit it if/when it happens.  I AM THE ONE WHO POINTED OUT THE DISCREPANCY TO BEGIN WITH.

The system is 29-7 if you do it the way it was originally designed

The system is 30-10 if you include other teams from conferences that this system wasn't designed for

If you have any questions whether or not a game fits the system, you can do one of two things. 1) Just look for my thread the night before as I will post all games that fit the system (and whether or not I am betting them) 2) Just come into my thread and ask and I will tell you if its a system play or not.

I encourage all of you to play with this system and make it your own (you could only use DD spreads, use teams from 160 or more, include away games with high ranked team vs low ranked teams etc). 

I appreciate all the support and kind words and do understand that some people will bash if the system or my alert plays begin to lose.  Let make some money

If anyone else has this same type of question, please direct them to this post

    Very well done Prof


Good Luck with Idaho st!!

Thanks Kline! Well said and thanks for your time and for sharing this with us!!!

Kine,

My point only is to either follow what you claim or not, dont pick and choose.

There were MANY lines open on that game-

link

I didnt bash you at all, rather we want to avoid inconsistencies and drama, and if you pick and choose which fit by if you know the team and they are a larger NCAA team what good does that do?

Your comment yesterday was that since Matchbook didnt have the game available that it wasnt a system play, that just is not a good way to conduct a broad "system" type of play set.

Now if you want to say that "My plays are X" even though the system has other games, that is your choice but you didnt say that, rather that any situation that fits the system is a play..which was not the case last night.

I would also highly suggest getting funds at a book like 5 Dimes, only being at Matchbook severely limits your options.

Fuck the title, lets get that money!

You the man Kine!

I understand your points completely.  Say what you want, but I am not just "picking and choosing" which games to use.  This system WAS ALWAYS designed based on the games available to everyone.  The only conference (or games) in question is the Summit League.  I apologize that I didn't realize that other books provided Summit League game lines.  Matchbook (and other books using DONBEST) either don't ever get a line for these games or they post them as added games that are bet moneyline only.  AGAIN, THESE ARE NOT GAMES THAT FIT THIS SYSTEM and here is why:

Let's say that on Feb 6th you bet UNC Greensboro +15 at Woffold (a game that was available for all to bet), you watch or track the game and they get rolled by 18. 

The normal better says "Greenboro sucks, I won't make that mistake again" and they either 1) Don't bet a Greensboro game or 2) They bet against Greenboro in a similar situation.  So the next time they are a double digit road underdog they either avoid the game or bet against Greenboro. 

What the system makes you take into account is the quality of opponent.  Wofford is MUCH BETTER than Davidson, yet that line had only a 1.5 pt difference (-15 to -13.5).  So when most people saw that game they either "no-played" it or bet on Davidson based on their preconceived notions of the quality or value of Greenboro.  Again, the key is that is has to be teams that always have lines and that better know and have preconceived ideas about that we can take advantage of.

When I created and tracked the system I used only teams that have lines using DONBEST the INDUSTRY STANDARD in online bookmaking and line movement tracking.  This is because I want only teams that always have lines for all their games so we can take advantage of over and under-valued teams. 

DONBEST doesn't post lined games for the Summit League, the Atlantic East Conference, the Atlantic Sun, the Great West, the Northeast, the Patriot League, the Southland, or the Southwestern Atlantic Conference, THESE GAMES ARE NOT SYSTEM GAMES.

I will include both record so everyone is happy and we can move on.

Since Feb 13th: System: 29-7 OR 30-10 (including Summit league games that are not suppose to be included in this system)

TO BE CLEAR
System is:
1. Team has to be ranked #180 or worst in Kenpom's current rankings
2. Team must be at home
3. Team must be favored by 6.5 or more
4. Team must be from a conference that always have lined games, these conferences include: A-10, ACC, Big-12, Big-10, Big East, Big Sky,  Big South, Big West, Colonial Athletic, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy League, Metro, Mid American, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Ohio Valley, Pac-10, SEC, Southern, Sun-Belt, West Coast, and WAC
5. Bet against these teams

You are welcome to change, modify, fade or do whatever you like with this system.  Good luck with whatever you decide

As the system is currently stated, it is a play as long as it is -6.5 or more.  Now if the line opened at -9 and got bet down to -7, you might want to layoff, but it is still a system play, you have to decide for yourself if there is still value.  Same goes for injuries (such as with this game today).  My argument would be that you will ALWAYS find a reason to not bet on the teams this system has us betting.  The Greensboros, Radfords, and Illnois Chicago's of the world are not very attractive to bet, but as we have seen these last two weeks, there are tons of value with these teams in the right situations.