System Clarification and System Play Alert Tomorrow (Feb 25th)

YTD 38-23 1-0 (3-unit plays) +18 units

Hey Guys,
Another excellent day for the system as New Orleans led at halftime and keep it close throughout for an EASY cover for the system.  That makes the system 29-7 (I'll explain below) since Feb 13th - wow! 

A few posters brought up the fact that there were two other lines that fit are system plays.  Those lines weren't available at matchbook or many other online books. 

I just got done speaking with a Matchbook representative and they use the main college basketball line provider DONBEST and that is the industry standard provider for online books (although a few books like 5Dimes use a different provider). 

When I first developed the system it was always meant to be for teams that are in conferences that ALWAYS have a line available to everyone, such as the Samford's, Tulane's, and Elon's of the world.  These teams play in conferences that always have lines and they get over and under valued. 

This system wasn't designed for any teams that seldom gets a line put on their game or have "lined" games that are available to a majority of betters.  These conferences include American East, Atlantic Sun, and the Southland conference to name a few.  The reason being again that is almost impossible to assign value to the team or to that particular line.  We are trying to take advantage of an "overvaluing" of a home team that doesn't deserve the credit. 

IF THERE IS A LINE ON A GAME WITH A TEAM FROM A CONFERENCE THAT DOESN'T OFTEN HAVE LINES OR CAN'T BE FOUND ON MOST ONLINE PROVIDERS OR AVAILABLE TO MOST BETTERS, IT IS NOT A SYSTEM PLAY

I have adjusted the system based on only games that had a DONBEST line (those lines available to everyone) and after losing a few wins and losses here are the results:

Saturday Feb 13 4-1
#258 Yale -11.5, won by 13 (system loss)
#234 UC Riverside -7.5, LOST by 3 (system win)
#192 Troy -12, won by 3 (system win)
#250 Tenn Tech -10.5, won by 9 (system win)
#267 UC Irvine -7, won by 2 (system win)

Sunday Feb 14 - 0-1
#197 Central Michigan -14.5, won by 17 (system loss)

Monday Feb 15 - 0-2
#195 Austin Peay -7.5, won by 20 (system loss)
#187 Arkansas St -7.5, won by 17 (system loss)

Tuesday - NO PLAYS

Wednesday Feb 17 - 1-0
#222 UC Northridge -8.5, won by 5 (system win)

Thursday Feb 18 - 5-0
#282 Louisiana Monroe -10, LOST by 9 (system win)
#198 Louisiana Lafayette -7, won by 2 (system win)
#195 Austin Peay -10, won by 5 (system win)
#202 Denver -13, won by 5 (system win)
#205 Montana St. -12.5, won by 6 (system win)

Friday Feb 19 - 1-0
#309 Penn -7 LOST by 7 (system win)

Saturday Feb 20 - 15-3
#189 Citadel -10 LOST by 6 (system win)
#200 Loyola Maryland -8 LOST by 1 (system win)
#178 Davidson -12.5 won by 3 (system win)
#201 Manhattan -8 won by 16 (system loss)
#217 Ball State -13 won by 16 (system loss)
#214 Rice -7 LOST by 11 (system win)
#227 Samford -7 won by 6 (system win)
#205 Georgia St -9 won by 15 (system loss)
#197 Central Michigan -11.5 won by 6 (system win)
#209 Radford -9.5 won by 8 (system win)
#267 UC Irvine -14 won by 1 (system win)
#214 Cal St Fullerton -20 won by 4 (system win)
#253 Jacksonville St. -11.5 LOST by 4 (system win)
#233 Evansville -7 LOST by 2 (system win)
#198 Louisiana Lafayette -11 won by 2 (system win)
#234 Northern Arizona -7.5 won by 3 (system win)
#188 Boise St -12.5 LOST by 8 (system win)
#247 Hawaii -7 LOST by 13 (system win)

Sunday Feb 21 - NO PLAYS

SYSTEM 26-7 from Feb 13th to Feb 21st; Now as you know I am not sure how Senior Night will influence the system, so this was the end of the original system to be brought back Feb 12th to Feb 20th of 2011 - but for kicks we extended it through this week to see if Senior Nights matter at all

Monday Feb 22 - 1-0
Samford -9, LOST by 6 (system win)

Tuesday Feb 23 - NO PLAYS

Wednesday Feb 24 - 1-0
Davidson -14, won by 4 (system win)

Thursday Feb 25 - 1-0
Arkansas St -13.5, won by 7 (system win)

So the system stands 29-7 using all lines provided by DONBEST the industry standard provider using only lines of teams that are from conferences that have most (if not all) games and teams with lines. 

If you feel the need to think of the system as 30-10 based on ALL lines ever posted that is fine - but understand that those are not system plays and I won't be tracking them.  I hope we can all continue to win with this system

That being said, there is one system play tomorrow, play AGAINST Portland St -9, so IDAHO ST. +9 IS THE SYSTEM PLAY

I need to mention that this IS NOT senior night for Portland St, which makes this an even stronger play

thank you! 

nice

money. good work.

i think you are one day off on your thread titles...isnt tomorrow the 26th(and today you had the 24th...its the 25th) just askin....thanks for the plays

Crap!  Mods can you change the title of this thread to Feb 26th please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I like where your mind is at

Nice Job!!

Always like you wrte ups.It's like finding money. 

You're the man. Thanks again for the hard work. Im on it for 4 units tomorrow. Lets keep this baby going

We are all in this together my friend - thanks

Mods say title is too long to edit - so hopefully everyone gets the picture despite my stupid incorrect date - sorry about that

    im sure we can all figure it out

damn thats my pick for tomorrow  idaho st + 9

hit this on the moneyline in  the morning boys

Great work Kine, love your threads. Maybe i missed something about the system but wouldn't Loyola, Md be a bet against? They are rated 201 by Kenpom and layin 4 to Canisius tomorrow.

hey occy, only rated above 180 and favored by 6 or more

Mahalo Kine Professor for your valuable insight,,,much props goes to you!

You might want to make sure Gilcrhest is playing for Idaho st KP.  He is ?????

16ppg

occy - home team must be favored by at least -6 is how I remember this magical system?
I've won a dollar or two off of Kine! 

 

why would you take the ML. Isn't there more value in just taking the pts per the system play? or do you just have big kahunas?

I knew this was the play! 

Good Luck!!!!

GL