All Forums | College Basketball

SHIRLEYS LINES FOR SUNDAYS GA<ES FRO ALL TO SEE!

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 28275
Posts: 216
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 2763
Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by countingthedeck:

Shirley Great job the past few days!!

I just wanted to say that your lines and my lines are about 95 % the same in all cases. Though you stated that you  ONLY posted the lines in which they are Potential Plays I curiously wondered why Duke is not a play. For example


Books Line          Shirley Jester            Counting The Deck
Duke -9                Duke - 11                   Duke -17


You stated that in order to make a play on favorites you must have at least a 4 point differential. Although your system of late has had success as you mentioned predicting the Duke games, how does a  2.2 point differential now make it a play? just curious?

Also on the Southern Illinois/ Creighton Game I have the the Salukis winning by 7 on the road?

Books Line               Shirleys Line           Counting The Deck 
+9                            No Edge??             Visitor -7

Also for tomorrow, they is no line posted yet. But I'll post what they will put up. Any thoughts?

Books Line                   Shirleys Line              Counting The Deck
Syracuse-5                      ??                            Syracuse -5
Kansas -8                        ??                             Kansas -7
Hawaii -1                          ??                             Hawaii - 3


Predicted Scores
Duke              82
MiamiFlorida   65

Southern Illinois 70
Creighton           63

Thanks again Shirley!!


You typed all this crap yet to me you seem like a retard. IF DUKE IS NOT A 4 POINT FAV ON HER LINES, THEN IT IS NOT A PLAY (judging from my understanding of the system) it is that simple. FOR EXAMPLE, STJ V CINCY, shes got cincy as a 2 point fav, and STJ was a 5.5 dog, so thats a difference of 3.5 in dogs, just because her numbers favour cincy it doesnt mean they are the play, just in the case of DUKE, it could be a no play.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 74
Posted: #152
what is "counting the deck"
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 136
Posted: #153
I teased Duke to +1....I would assume that satisfies the math with a delta of 12.  I am just hoping the "system" she uses allows for this sort of thing. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 2763
Posted: #154
Quote Originally Posted by imkds615:

I teased Duke to +1....I would assume that satisfies the math with a delta of 12.  I am just hoping the "system" she uses allows for this sort of thing. 

Whats the point of that? what are you paying on it? like -800?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 94
Posted: #155


I know our model has been extremely accurate predicting the Duke games this year, and I'm not suggesting a wager. However, to the best of my recollection, this is the first time in quite some while  that we actually have an advantage their way, albeit the tiniest of edges.

P

So Shirley just said they have a slight edge? Before the game starts say whether or not it is a play? Is it a play to be counted tomorrow after the results as a "no play" winner?


I fully understand that she stated there must be a 4 point edge. What my question to her was, because in 95 percent of the games, our line is the EXACTLY the same, why do you think there is a 5 point difference in our projection? Is there a variable that is not accounted for?

Your last sentence

"just because her numbers favour cincy it doesnt mean they are the play, just in the case of DUKE, it could be a no play."

So in gambling, there is no such thing as it could be a play, or not could be a play. There is one or there is not.

If you could find Duke-7, yes this is a play. Someplace in Jerusalem you probably can find -7. I have not seen any number close to that so why even mention it. She mentioned it because its a tv game and their would be interest as clearly stated. So it is a way of giving her opinion for people that must bet it. In her system it is NOT a play, but in mine yes it is. What i wrong about asking for clarification? What is wrong about transparency?

Stating the the plays at at the most common number available before the games start is not a hard thing to do?

Correct me if i am wrong Shirley, no offense taken or implied.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 2763
Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by countingthedeck:


I know our model has been extremely accurate predicting the Duke games this year, and I'm not suggesting a wager. However, to the best of my recollection, this is the first time in quite some while  that we actually have an advantage their way, albeit the tiniest of edges.

P

So Shirley just said they have a slight edge? Before the game starts say whether or not it is a play? Is it a play to be counted tomorrow after the results as a "no play" winner?


I fully understand that she stated there must be a 4 point edge. What my question to her was, because in 95 percent of the games, our line is the EXACTLY the same, why do you think there is a 5 point difference in our projection? Is there a variable that is not accounted for?

Your last sentence

"just because her numbers favour cincy it doesnt mean they are the play, just in the case of DUKE, it could be a no play."

So in gambling, there is no such thing as it could be a play, or not could be a play. There is one or there is not.

If you could find Duke-7, yes this is a play. Someplace in Jerusalem you probably can find -7. I have not seen any number close to that so why even mention it. She mentioned it because its a tv game and their would be interest as clearly stated. So it is a way of giving her opinion for people that must bet it. In her system it is NOT a play, but in mine yes it is. What i wrong about asking for clarification? What is wrong about transparency?

Stating the the plays at at the most common number available before the games start is not a hard thing to do?

Correct me if i am wrong Shirley, no offense taken or implied.


My fault, I am having a bad day outside of gambling, didn't mean to sound so rude, just wrote what came to my head at the time. I guess all I'm trying to say is that because of data compilation and whatnot, if Shirley believes the most profitable way to go about this system would be to follow movement and base plays on the 2 cardinal rules, then I don't question her method of picking the games out of the system. That was what I meant, and people kept saying Duke are plays when they are clearly not a play based on her " 4 point fav rule". But once again, my apologies.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 2763
Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by TroyG25:



My fault, I am having a bad day outside of gambling, didn't mean to sound so rude, just wrote what came to my head at the time. I guess all I'm trying to say is that because of data compilation and whatnot, if Shirley believes the most profitable way to go about this system would be to follow movement and base plays on the 2 cardinal rules, then I don't question her method of picking the games out of the system. That was what I meant, and people kept saying Duke are plays when they are clearly not a play based on her " 4 point fav rule". But once again, my apologies.


And as to the primetime question, you do have a good point, it was an asshole of a move from my behalf.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 234
Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by countingthedeck:


I know our model has been extremely accurate predicting the Duke games this year, and I'm not suggesting a wager. However, to the best of my recollection, this is the first time in quite some while  that we actually have an advantage their way, albeit the tiniest of edges.

P

So Shirley just said they have a slight edge? Before the game starts say whether or not it is a play? Is it a play to be counted tomorrow after the results as a "no play" winner?


I fully understand that she stated there must be a 4 point edge. What my question to her was, because in 95 percent of the games, our line is the EXACTLY the same, why do you think there is a 5 point difference in our projection? Is there a variable that is not accounted for?

Your last sentence

"just because her numbers favour cincy it doesnt mean they are the play, just in the case of DUKE, it could be a no play."

So in gambling, there is no such thing as it could be a play, or not could be a play. There is one or there is not.

If you could find Duke-7, yes this is a play. Someplace in Jerusalem you probably can find -7. I have not seen any number close to that so why even mention it. She mentioned it because its a tv game and their would be interest as clearly stated. So it is a way of giving her opinion for people that must bet it. In her system it is NOT a play, but in mine yes it is. What i wrong about asking for clarification? What is wrong about transparency?

Stating the the plays at at the most common number available before the games start is not a hard thing to do?

Correct me if i am wrong Shirley, no offense taken or implied.

Don't be an idiot dude.  First of all, nobody cares about your system.  Second of all, Shirley never said Duke was a play.  She said they have been accurate picking Duke games this year, but it's been against them, not in their favor, which it was today.  The fact that there was not a delta of atleast 4, means it was NOT a play.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 234
Posted: #159
Counting the Deck....why don't you go start your own thread and make some picks on your own and see how many people follow.  Classic example of somebody trying to mooch off anothers success.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 94
Posted: #160
Ok sorry to offend anyone again, but my question was once again to SHIRLEY, not to anyone else. I am just asking a question to which I i received a backlash. Remember I am not on here to dog her like some other people. I merely asked and if you read what she said in here post, she said "they" meaning "Duke" has a tiny advantage according to her line.

Just remember, my question asked why,since she started posting her lines, they are EXACTLY the same 95 percent of the time with mine. Except in this case my number says Duke -17 and Shirleys -11. Is there a variable somewhere i did not take into account?

Second I don't care if anyone cares about my system or not. Once again my question was if both of our lines are the same 95% of the time, why the 6 point difference this time?

I understand fully about playing into prime numbers, that cannot be understated. I fully understand that numbers may differ and you may have to shop. So people should realize that games  be IDEALLY be posted BEFORE the games start and graded at the WORST common available to most online bettors. That is what TRANSPARENCY is about.

Who cares about who wants to bash her? I don't. I enjoy it when we are on the same side. If you look at my post My Thoughts On Todays College Basketball you will find I was on some of her games and some of mine and went 11-6. Thats what i want, is when the numbers are the same and we find differences in the line that can be exposed.

Sparty and Billy stated that she is going tout. I don't care because I can make my own line and have done for years. I just simply asked a question to Shirley, unfortunatley it was answered by someone else not named Shirley.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2007
Posts: 224
Posted: #161
hurry back shirley  and on another great day
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 16
Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by countingthedeck:

Ok sorry to offend anyone again, but my question was once again to SHIRLEY, not to anyone else. I am just asking a question to which I i received a backlash. Remember I am not on here to dog her like some other people. I merely asked and if you read what she said in here post, she said "they" meaning "Duke" has a tiny advantage according to her line.

Just remember, my question asked why,since she started posting her lines, they are EXACTLY the same 95 percent of the time with mine. Except in this case my number says Duke -17 and Shirleys -11. Is there a variable somewhere i did not take into account?

Second I don't care if anyone cares about my system or not. Once again my question was if both of our lines are the same 95% of the time, why the 6 point difference this time?

I understand fully about playing into prime numbers, that cannot be understated. I fully understand that numbers may differ and you may have to shop. So people should realize that games  be IDEALLY be posted BEFORE the games start and graded at the WORST common available to most online bettors. That is what TRANSPARENCY is about.

Who cares about who wants to bash her? I don't. I enjoy it when we are on the same side. If you look at my post My Thoughts On Todays College Basketball you will find I was on some of her games and some of mine and went 11-6. Thats what i want, is when the numbers are the same and we find differences in the line that can be exposed.

Sparty and Billy stated that she is going tout. I don't care because I can make my own line and have done for years. I just simply asked a question to Shirley, unfortunatley it was answered by someone else not named Shirley.


I thought Shirley said that her computer program analyzes approx. 43 different items.  How would she know which ones are different from your analysis?
  So just post all of the stats you used to come up with Duke -17 and she will get back to you.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 94
Posted: #163
Budweiser,

      My question was for Shirley, yet everyone but Shirley is answering the question. Are you speaking for Shirley?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 25
Posted: #164

What a day.....Went 5-0  with duke hitting......

Thank you Shirley !!!!!!!!!

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 54
Posted: #165

I am a 75 year old, Major, USAF Retired and am fairly new to this forum.  I want to thank Shirley for her dedication and time she has to spend to post her numbers so that WE can make money. After all, that's what we are here for.   As far as her record goes, it seems superior to any of the other capper I have see.  I don't understand why she puts up with all the crap that is thrown her way in these threads. 

One of my biggest peeves is those who feel they have to give a minute by minute game update, thereby long threads with 80% of posts useless  Another thing is the language that some people use, not that I haven't use it my self, but I would NEVER use it in a public forum like this.  I know I am an old foggy and things have changed from when I grew up.  I guess you figure it is ok to hide behind your keyboard and post any thing you please.

With that being said, has any one developed a spreadsheet so all you have to do is enter Shirly's numbers, the books numbers and do the addition/subtraction to come up with the Delta factor?

If so, please post the formulas you use so we can all build our own.  I am sure someone must have put something together to crunch the numbers.

I am still confused as to how to determine if the bet is on the dog ot the favorite.  I have read all the post in Shirley's threads, so don't tell me to do that...I have done that.  I know there are lots of people smarted than me that has already, or can build a spreadsheet to automate your action.  I have built the folowing spreadsheet, however the more I look at it the more confused I get (old brain cells) .  These numbers are based upon her numbers for 2/13. 

I am getting a message that I am limited to 7800 characters, so see continuation below.

Dean

 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 1227
Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by lineman_69:

What a day.....Went 5-0  with duke hitting......

Thank you Shirley !!!!!!!!!

Was Duke the play. I thought the numbers had it taking Miami.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 54
Posted: #167
 
 

Team   Shirl     Book    Delta      Decision (Dog) (Favorite)

                                              

Cinn   -1.7      -5.00    -3.30    Delta of -3.3 = Good Dog Bet

Duke   -11.2    -9.50    1.70     No Action

Duquesne        -1.8      -5.50    -3.70    Delta of -3.7 = Good Dog Bet

Purdue -0.7      3.00     3.70     Delta of +3.7 = ??

Rider   -11.3    -14.00  -2.70   

S Joes  -6.2      -3.50    2.70    

Thanks for your help.  I guarantee the light bulb will come on one of these days.  I hope it happens before March madness.  It would be great if some who understands the system would take Shirley's numbers and post the plays.  I want you to know that I am not saying this because I am lazy, there is a difference between confusion and lazyness.

It did not format well, hope you can follow.

Dean

 

 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 16
Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by countingthedeck:

Is there a variable somewhere i did not take into account?

-------and

 Budweiser,

      My question was for Shirley, yet everyone but Shirley is answering the question. Are you speaking for Shirley?

no, but just as you are asking S. a question, I am asking you one.  How would Shirley know which variable(s) you did not take into account, if she doesn't know which ones you DID take into account?
   Think about it. What kind of answer are you expecting from her if you give her no information?  

  Plus Shirley said she would be busy for a few days.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 234
Posted: #169
Quote Originally Posted by dmheal:

 
 

Team   Shirl     Book    Delta      Decision (Dog) (Favorite)

                                              

Cinn   -1.7      -5.00    -3.30    Delta of -3.3 = Good Dog Bet

Duke   -11.2    -9.50    1.70     No Action

Duquesne        -1.8      -5.50    -3.70    Delta of -3.7 = Good Dog Bet

Purdue -0.7      3.00     3.70     Delta of +3.7 = ??

Rider   -11.3    -14.00  -2.70   

S Joes  -6.2      -3.50    2.70    

Thanks for your help.  I guarantee the light bulb will come on one of these days.  I hope it happens before March madness.  It would be great if some who understands the system would take Shirley's numbers and post the plays.  I want you to know that I am not saying this because I am lazy, there is a difference between confusion and lazyness.

It did not format well, hope you can follow.

Dean

 

 

Dean - the purdue game would've been a dog bet too.  Shirley actually had Purdue winning the game.  She will list all favorites according to her computer. 

Example A:

Team 1 is favored by 8, but shirley has them -4. This will be a good dog bet because she doesn't think team 1 will cover.

Example B:

Team 2 is favored by 4, but shirley has then -8.  This will be a good favorite bet bc she expects them to win by 8, when the line is only 4.

Also, note that if she has a team favored that is actually getting points, the same would apply, as long as there is a delta of atleast 4. Hope that helps.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 34
Posted: #170
Understanding Shirley's lines can be a confusing initially, but with some basic math and a little bit of time in Excel everyone should be able to figure out what are (or are not) plays. Here is my feeble attempt at an explanation.

All of the teams listed are projected to win. I find it more intuitive place a negative sign in front of the numbers. Open up excel; 1 column for Shirley, 1 column for book lines, 1 column for delta (or difference).

A                             B                        C = | B - A |
Shirley's                   Book Lines          Difference (absolute value)
Cincinnati -1.7          -5.0                     3.3
Purdue -0.7              +2.5                    3.2
Duquesne -1.8        -5.5                     3.7
Rider -11.3               -14.0                    2.7
St Joe's -6.2             -5.0                     1.2
Duke -11.2               -9.0                     2.2

So, eliminate any games where the difference isn't at least > 3.0; removing Rider, St Joe's & Duke.

Now look at column A and B for the remaining games. What is it really saying? 

A = Cinci should win by 1.7 points (Shirley)
B = Cinci should win by 5.0 points (Books)

Are you going to put money on Cinci to win by 5.0 when they're projected to only win by 1.7? NOPE

It becomes obvious that you're supposed to bet the dog here. You could also restate the above as...

A = St Johns should lose by 1.7 points (Shirley)
B = St Johns should lose by 5.0 points (Books)

Are you going to put money on St Johns to get 1.7 when they're projected to get 5.0? The answer is YES.

Ironically enough, the score of this game was 57-59. 

Anyhow, this process can be time consuming especially with a big card as the one on Saturday. It's a little difficult to post the plays as lines change throughout the day but this isn't rocket science. 

I'll admit that I actually missed out on the 3 plays today merely out of laziness of not wanting to do some basic arithmetic (and not really in the mood to gamble). Sucks for me because I missed out on 3 winners.

I hope that this clarified the math a little bit. GL everyone.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 16
Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by BUDWlSER:



I thought Shirley said that her computer program analyzes approx. 43 different items.  How would she know which ones are different from your analysis?
  So just post all of the stats you used to come up with Duke -17 and she will get back to you.

How about if I put it this way;  If she asked YOU which variables YOU used that SHE didn't take into account, what would you say?


I did some searching for you.  Here is something she posted on Thursday:

Our model has many variables that are input, and every team has their own model as does every conference. Some of the variables included are recent form, avg points per shot attempt, final 5 minutes of the game "crunch time" data, distance travelling for tonight's game, number of days off, etc.

We have comprised over 40 variables for our model, which is individualized  for every team, within every conferece. It's probably not too different than what the linesmaker does, except we do not have to balance the action, and we are not concerned with public perception, and we can include the underdog-favorite bias in our figures.

This game upon a cursory look should be a blowout. We all know that I Thomas and the gang are undefeated at home, and Holloway (is that his name) is a lights out scorer. However, they do have some weaknesses, and this matchup on this night seems to lean in the direction of the underdog. Since our job is to quantify the inequities, we have done our best work to come up with this projected line.

Your assumption is that the home court has a fixed value of "X". Well that just depends on the situation , and is not  what our model is telling us. It could be worth "X +- 6 points in some situations".

They (Washington) could be a 5.1 favorite at home tonight, and on Saturday be a 7.4 point favorite against the same team on the road. We're never sure until the computer crunches  the updated data.


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 16
Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by countingthedeck:

Budweiser,

      My question was for Shirley, yet everyone but Shirley is answering the question. Are you speaking for Shirley?


The last post was a reply to countingthedeck, in case it is not obvious.  I probably shouldn't have quoted myself....
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 701
Posted: #173
Hope u break free for some Monday love!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 25
Posted: #174

Quote Originally Posted by SonnySixKill:

Was Duke the play. I thought the numbers had it taking Miami.

You need to read her post and tell me what you read in to it???

She wasnt telling anyone to play duke, it was suggested ,  After all this is gambling. 

 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 1202
Posted: #175
it was a no play but leaning DUKE
All Forums | College Basketball
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.