SonnySixKill 
I don't think either of those games has a chance of being a play, but the second it becomes one, I know you'll be all over it!
Headjammer The only team I perceived as offering value was San Francisco vs Hawaii. It's still not a play, just what I thought was the best of the "no plays" of the day, at that point in time.
Gassman33
NHL NO, MLB Yes, with success. There is no way I can committ to posting BB plays, I'm simply too busy. BOL
Shirley
Crowndaking
They had a tv special on him, and I was fortunate enough to be able to view part of it at a later date.
It has made him a great player on the road, as he fears nothing. After playing vs the inmates, the rest is cake, right?
Still BB is a team game, and balance is dangerous. If Jimmer is off, they lose. If Grey is off, the zags can still win, as as they might have more court balance than BYU. I'm not betting the game, this is just my opinion, and Jimmer is amazing!
Shirley
Crowndaking
They had a tv special on him, and I was fortunate enough to be able to view part of it at a later date.
It has made him a great player on the road, as he fears nothing. After playing vs the inmates, the rest is cake, right?
Still BB is a team game, and balance is dangerous. If Jimmer is off, they lose. If Grey is off, the zags can still win, as as they might have more court balance than BYU. I'm not betting the game, this is just my opinion, and Jimmer is amazing!
Shirley
As of the end of the BYU-Gonzaga game which finished moments ago, I have listed the following adjustments for each of the major conferences. Thus provides a reference point, in real time, that quantifies each conference, and their performance level in the tourney so far.
When I make the lines, these are added in, but since game scores are continously flowing in, they are dynamic in nature and ever channging.
ACC + .60
Atlantic 10 - 1.40
Big Beast -.50
Big 10 +3.20
Big 12 -2.70
SEC +1.20
MWC +.80
One game of interest, that is going on right now, is Wisc vs Kan St. According to my numbers this game would necessitate a 5.90 adjustment in favor of Wisconsin. The game was a no play today, and I personally would NEVER play it, because it is a favorite, but the result of this game will either further confirm or tear apart my adjustment numbers.
Shirley
Tomorrows games will be posted here, and in a separate thread. My target is 10 AM Sunday, although they could be ready hours earlier.
The Wisconsin game is over, and they covered the spread by 1.50 poonts, no surprise there. Astonishingly, their result will actually LOWER the BIG 10 Conference adjustment numbers.
The reason for this is that we use a "watered down" adjustment figure, because with such limited data from this tourney, we do not want any one game ( like a runaway victory like BYU today), to deeply impact these adjusted numbers. This is the reason we use medians and never averages when handicapping basketball games. Our goal is to make the most games fall within certain confidence limits, and the use of medians helps in accomplishing this goal.
Shirley
Parkit33
CapialGains
Sparticus
Paramedic88
The adjustments are also reflective of what we all know and feel when watching the games. It's something that is necessary during tournament time, given the overall lack of data points between the teams left.
In retrospect, my Uconn - Cinn line should have the lowest variance, because they both particiapate in the Big East, with previous meetings and several common data points.
Shirley
Dodger_Blue
RutgerRot214
Initially this game was NOT a play, now at +6, it is still NOT a play!
Why is this? There is a simple answer. BYU won by a hundred, Gonzaga lost by 100 points today. After the daily conference adjustments have been made, this game is not even close to being a play.
Dynamic adjustments are necessary this time of year to weed out as many games as possible. What remains is usually pretty good.
It's too bad, as this was my type of play, a dog on the road, underrated, etc.
Megatron27
If you send me a private email via the covers site, I will discuss with you some of the methodology involved with my projected pointspreads models.
Shirley
Westi819
Congratulation on you victory! Don't fell like you have to apologize, you still had an edge on your wager, just not enough for me to play the game. Many people wagered on that game and also on Uconn yesterday, because of my lines. USF was my personal favorite early, but the Wisc ML was a personal preference of mine later, after adjustments were incorporated into the mix. Due to my conservative nature, I played neither of these games.
Shirley
Yesterday only 1 game ventured into the wagering area, and that was USF vs Hawaii, which closed at +6.5.
Using my raw numbers, this was a dog play and a winner. It was really the type of game which is a bankroll builder in the long haul. However, if you were privy to my conference adjustments, it became a no play. I am not counting this winner in my tournament record, which is not included in my regular season record listed below. I DID NOT PLAY THIS GAME.
Overall covers win pct not counting tourney of 64 61.37%
College basketball sides omitting Tourney of 64 59-26 69.41%
NCAA Tourney of 64 record 10-3 76.92%.
My lines are as follows:
VT 5.10
NC 9.10
Duke 9.70
Ohio St 11.80
Tex 4.90
Purdue 11.80
Syr 4.50
Kan 3.90
ND 4.20
It looks as if there will be some action today on a game or two. Please note that these lines include all conference adjustments through Saturday night. Best of luck
Shirley
Ghostfaceripper
I am quite serious..............
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A5t5_O8hdA
Shirley
Established in 1995,
!!
SHIRLEY
Hot Forum Topics
