My tourney results so far based off of my raw numbers, and following my usual wagering suggestion is 10-3. I personally am 5-0, as I am more conservative than most, and try to eliminate as many games as possible, being left with only high advantage selections.
A more detailed analysis of my selection method is contained within the other thread. A copy of some of this posting is also contained within the other thread. I apologize for the duplication, but this simply makes it easy for anyone interested in my numbers to locate them with minimal effort.
Day 1 6-3
Day 2 4-0
I have a couple of comments on all of Saturday's games, before posting the lines.
For me, I find this a difficult time of the year to get a significant edge on games. I have stated that the lines are tighter (by about .60 points) than they were earlier in the year. Additionally more games will fall within a smaller window of results (smaller standard deviation by about .60 points), so you are getting squeezed by the tighter lines and the extra value of each possession. This is an undeniable mathematical fact. I can actually "feel" this when watching games this time of the year, and I know you probably also feel the same way.
If you are wagering on 6 of 8 games, and you think you have an edge, you are a great handicapper, and much better than I am. I have to pull all stops out to hit 59% in this tournament, and really feel uncomfortable making almost any wager, so I am EXTREMELY selective, all the while knowing that the books are very good from here on out.
Can we still win? Of course, but don't think you have an edge wagering on evey game or 75% of the games. You're just fooling yourself, unless you are really, really, really, really good. Enough said.
Keeping all of the above in mind, and making all of my adjustments for conference vs conference, we come up with the following UNEXCITING numbers:
BC 4.10
Ky 2.60
Fla 5.60
Rich 3.40
Pitt 8.20
Gonzaga 1.30
Wisc 3.20
Uconn 6.40
Cl St 4.40
W Mich 0.70
Hawaii 2.30
There are no games that qualify as wagers, and this is not surprising. Unfortunately, the books numbers and my own seem to be converging. This doesn't bode well for the rest of the tourney using my methods.
If you were to ask me to pick a game, I might say USF. However, I am in no way saying to wager on this game. It just appears to offer more value than any other event.
A possible idea I would suggest is to take advantage of the tighter lines and smaller standard deviation, by making a money line play. If you have a strong opinion on a game, or if you follow one of my suggested handicappers on this site, and they can convince you of their selection, and you like my number, go with the ML.
This way you are "capturing the value of the tighter line, in addition to the value of the smaller standard deviation of game results.
I will try to post Sundays lines, time permitting. Best of luck
Shirley
based on what you said in previous thread.
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