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    All Forums | College Basketball

    November Hoops

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    nropp11
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    nropp11
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 4:03 PM ET #76

    Quote Originally Posted by JMC1984:

    NRopp, great stuff as always.

    Nov. 12th, Florida Atlantic @ Portland?

    Nov 13th, UL-Lafayette @ San Francisco?

    I love betting both the Sun Belt and WCC, and would love to get your insight on these 2 matchups.


    Two easy games to cross off.

    13th is a back-to-back for both teams, so not sure what you'll end up with in that one in terms of effort.

    As for the 12th, travel is the first thing that comes to mind. FL ATL travelling cross country and the game is being played in the morning. Portland's got a lot of potential with some players from overseas, and I cannot pronounce or spell half of em if I remember correctly. Key thing to keep on eye on is the status of their PG's. Both Waterford and Riley didn't play in the last scrimmage, and poor PG play leads to failure to close out a game. And that exact same thing happened in their last exhibition, they led with 8 to play and had nobody to handle the pressure from...Concordia Irvine.

    Should be much better spots.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMC1984:

    NRopp, great stuff as always.

    Nov. 12th, Florida Atlantic @ Portland?

    Nov 13th, UL-Lafayette @ San Francisco?

    I love betting both the Sun Belt and WCC, and would love to get your insight on these 2 matchups.


    Two easy games to cross off.

    13th is a back-to-back for both teams, so not sure what you'll end up with in that one in terms of effort.

    As for the 12th, travel is the first thing that comes to mind. FL ATL travelling cross country and the game is being played in the morning. Portland's got a lot of potential with some players from overseas, and I cannot pronounce or spell half of em if I remember correctly. Key thing to keep on eye on is the status of their PG's. Both Waterford and Riley didn't play in the last scrimmage, and poor PG play leads to failure to close out a game. And that exact same thing happened in their last exhibition, they led with 8 to play and had nobody to handle the pressure from...Concordia Irvine.

    Should be much better spots.
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 4:17 PM ET #77

    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    Two easy games to cross off.

    13th is a back-to-back for both teams, so not sure what you'll end up with in that one in terms of effort.

    As for the 12th, travel is the first thing that comes to mind. FL ATL travelling cross country and the game is being played in the morning. Portland's got a lot of potential with some players from overseas, and I cannot pronounce or spell half of em if I remember correctly. Key thing to keep on eye on is the status of their PG's. Both Waterford and Riley didn't play in the last scrimmage, and poor PG play leads to failure to close out a game. And that exact same thing happened in their last exhibition, they led with 8 to play and had nobody to handle the pressure from...Concordia Irvine.

    Should be much better spots.

    And I should add that FAU will have much better PG play regardless of who or if Portland suits up a PG. FAU has above and beyond the best guard quadruplet I've witnessed in recent years come through the Sun Belt w/ Gantt, Taylor, Richardson & Tucker. Match-up nightmares.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    Two easy games to cross off.

    13th is a back-to-back for both teams, so not sure what you'll end up with in that one in terms of effort.

    As for the 12th, travel is the first thing that comes to mind. FL ATL travelling cross country and the game is being played in the morning. Portland's got a lot of potential with some players from overseas, and I cannot pronounce or spell half of em if I remember correctly. Key thing to keep on eye on is the status of their PG's. Both Waterford and Riley didn't play in the last scrimmage, and poor PG play leads to failure to close out a game. And that exact same thing happened in their last exhibition, they led with 8 to play and had nobody to handle the pressure from...Concordia Irvine.

    Should be much better spots.

    And I should add that FAU will have much better PG play regardless of who or if Portland suits up a PG. FAU has above and beyond the best guard quadruplet I've witnessed in recent years come through the Sun Belt w/ Gantt, Taylor, Richardson & Tucker. Match-up nightmares.
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 4:20 PM ET #78

    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    And I should add that FAU will have much better PG play regardless of who or if Portland suits up a PG. FAU has above and beyond the best guard quadruplet I've witnessed in recent years come through the Sun Belt w/ Gantt, Taylor, Richardson & Tucker. Match-up nightmares.

    And assuming they stay healthy, they should run away with the Sun Belt. They don't travel to Denver, which is a major +.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    And I should add that FAU will have much better PG play regardless of who or if Portland suits up a PG. FAU has above and beyond the best guard quadruplet I've witnessed in recent years come through the Sun Belt w/ Gantt, Taylor, Richardson & Tucker. Match-up nightmares.

    And assuming they stay healthy, they should run away with the Sun Belt. They don't travel to Denver, which is a major +.
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 4:35 PM ET #79

    Quote Originally Posted by duquesne5:

    What do you think of Akron if they can get a decent number maybe nine im estimating  against mississippi st.

    Also Duquesne vs Zona, after seeing zona I believe they are overrated.  I believe it comes down to how duquesne can shoot the ball and force Zona into turnovers.  Duquesne's half court offense is inconsistent so they will need to force turnovers ans keep zona out of the paint. Looking forward to your opinion, thanks ahead of time


    As long as Dambrot's in charge, Akron will always contend for a MAC title. Last year I noted McNight time and time again being an important piece of the puzzle and for some reason Dambrot didn't think that was the case. So, with that said, they did lose a few seniors, but they got the other gang a nice chunk of experience that will definitely help them out this year. They also go Walsh to come over from Xavier and a stud wing player that very few know about in Gilliam - who came from UMBC. He will be a handful for MAC guards to contain I believe. Can they play with Mississippi State? Absolutely, they match up pretty well. However, they just haven't played well on the road in recent years the first few weeks of the season, especially against BCS type schools. 

    I'm going to enjoy this one. Probably have two future NBA's down low in Marshall (Akron) and Sidney (MSST). Obviously, it takes a threat away from Akron offensively, so they take a slight hit in terms of matchup here.

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by duquesne5:

    What do you think of Akron if they can get a decent number maybe nine im estimating  against mississippi st.

    Also Duquesne vs Zona, after seeing zona I believe they are overrated.  I believe it comes down to how duquesne can shoot the ball and force Zona into turnovers.  Duquesne's half court offense is inconsistent so they will need to force turnovers ans keep zona out of the paint. Looking forward to your opinion, thanks ahead of time


    As long as Dambrot's in charge, Akron will always contend for a MAC title. Last year I noted McNight time and time again being an important piece of the puzzle and for some reason Dambrot didn't think that was the case. So, with that said, they did lose a few seniors, but they got the other gang a nice chunk of experience that will definitely help them out this year. They also go Walsh to come over from Xavier and a stud wing player that very few know about in Gilliam - who came from UMBC. He will be a handful for MAC guards to contain I believe. Can they play with Mississippi State? Absolutely, they match up pretty well. However, they just haven't played well on the road in recent years the first few weeks of the season, especially against BCS type schools. 

    I'm going to enjoy this one. Probably have two future NBA's down low in Marshall (Akron) and Sidney (MSST). Obviously, it takes a threat away from Akron offensively, so they take a slight hit in terms of matchup here.

    GL
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 4:50 PM ET #80

    Quote Originally Posted by duquesne5:

    What do you think of Akron if they can get a decent number maybe nine im estimating  against mississippi st.

    Also Duquesne vs Zona, after seeing zona I believe they are overrated.  I believe it comes down to how duquesne can shoot the ball and force Zona into turnovers.  Duquesne's half court offense is inconsistent so they will need to force turnovers ans keep zona out of the paint. Looking forward to your opinion, thanks ahead of time


    Have to give teams more than a game to label them. Teams are never as good as they were the last game and they were never as bad as they were as well. I'm high on Duquesne this year. I referenced this last year quite a few times, but the greatest improvement you see at this level from a team perspective almost always comes between the freshman and sophomore years and Duquesne fits that mold rather well. Don't think we've seen the best of Arizona yet. Jekyll & Hyde this early in the season, going to sit this one out. Your discussion has raised some key points, though.
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    Quote Originally Posted by duquesne5:

    What do you think of Akron if they can get a decent number maybe nine im estimating  against mississippi st.

    Also Duquesne vs Zona, after seeing zona I believe they are overrated.  I believe it comes down to how duquesne can shoot the ball and force Zona into turnovers.  Duquesne's half court offense is inconsistent so they will need to force turnovers ans keep zona out of the paint. Looking forward to your opinion, thanks ahead of time


    Have to give teams more than a game to label them. Teams are never as good as they were the last game and they were never as bad as they were as well. I'm high on Duquesne this year. I referenced this last year quite a few times, but the greatest improvement you see at this level from a team perspective almost always comes between the freshman and sophomore years and Duquesne fits that mold rather well. Don't think we've seen the best of Arizona yet. Jekyll & Hyde this early in the season, going to sit this one out. Your discussion has raised some key points, though.
     
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 4:54 PM ET #81

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    BandosWB
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 5:16 PM ET #82

    Quote Originally Posted by hollywoodundead:

    nropp11-

    isee u have n.colorado +10 at home vs a very very inexperienced  n.mexico st team who loses all their key players. N.colorado still has proctor who has LOTS of big game experience and probaly the best player in this game. I would suggest n.colo for a HUGE play possibly a ml is the line does end up around there?



    Is that right?  I see Castillo and Gillenwater gone -certainly BIG losses.  But the return of Larouche and his ball control (152/62 A/S ration), a couple of big men in Rahman/Nephawe, Watson and Kabongo seems to give them a nice core...and they get McKines back.

    UNCo loses 4 senior starters.  While we wont know their style for a while, they have been a 3 heavy team, and the only thing NMst did well last year was defend the three.

    KP has this at a pick'em basically.  So yeah, +10 does seem to have a ton of value.  But if it is at a possession, I would lean the much more experienced NMst squad.
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollywoodundead:

    nropp11-

    isee u have n.colorado +10 at home vs a very very inexperienced  n.mexico st team who loses all their key players. N.colorado still has proctor who has LOTS of big game experience and probaly the best player in this game. I would suggest n.colo for a HUGE play possibly a ml is the line does end up around there?



    Is that right?  I see Castillo and Gillenwater gone -certainly BIG losses.  But the return of Larouche and his ball control (152/62 A/S ration), a couple of big men in Rahman/Nephawe, Watson and Kabongo seems to give them a nice core...and they get McKines back.

    UNCo loses 4 senior starters.  While we wont know their style for a while, they have been a 3 heavy team, and the only thing NMst did well last year was defend the three.

    KP has this at a pick'em basically.  So yeah, +10 does seem to have a ton of value.  But if it is at a possession, I would lean the much more experienced NMst squad.
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 5:20 PM ET #83

    Quote Originally Posted by hollywoodundead:

    nropp11-

    isee u have n.colorado +10 at home vs a very very inexperienced  n.mexico st team who loses all their key players. N.colorado still has proctor who has LOTS of big game experience and probaly the best player in this game. I would suggest n.colo for a HUGE play possibly a ml is the line does end up around there?


    I think you have the two teams confused.

    Ten points might be a bit high, probably thinking -5 or -6 is more realistic. Tough to gauge.  New Mexico State didn't really lose any key players other than Gillenwater (which is enough to consider a few key players). They were actually one of the least inexperienced teams in the country last year, especially with injuries to McKines and Rahman and had to go a lot smaller on the court than what Menzies is accustomed too. 

    McKines is back this year. They'll go 6'6, 6'10, and 6'11 on the front line and McKines will be up for player of the year by years end if he stays healthy. They have some issues at the guard spot coming in, but that's never really been an issue with this team. They always find ways to score. The part that I focus on them is with their defense. They improved their defense TREMENDOUSLY last year, and that should continue to get better this year with the stud back. 

    Northern Colorado is sort of in rebuilding mode after losing their key players, most notably last year's BSKY MVP in Bietzel. They also lost three other starters and this Proctor you speak of had really good freshman and sophomore years under the old coach, but really had trouble getting on the floor under Hill last year. I saw em play at Illinois last year, replacing that backcourt is gonna be tough.

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollywoodundead:

    nropp11-

    isee u have n.colorado +10 at home vs a very very inexperienced  n.mexico st team who loses all their key players. N.colorado still has proctor who has LOTS of big game experience and probaly the best player in this game. I would suggest n.colo for a HUGE play possibly a ml is the line does end up around there?


    I think you have the two teams confused.

    Ten points might be a bit high, probably thinking -5 or -6 is more realistic. Tough to gauge.  New Mexico State didn't really lose any key players other than Gillenwater (which is enough to consider a few key players). They were actually one of the least inexperienced teams in the country last year, especially with injuries to McKines and Rahman and had to go a lot smaller on the court than what Menzies is accustomed too. 

    McKines is back this year. They'll go 6'6, 6'10, and 6'11 on the front line and McKines will be up for player of the year by years end if he stays healthy. They have some issues at the guard spot coming in, but that's never really been an issue with this team. They always find ways to score. The part that I focus on them is with their defense. They improved their defense TREMENDOUSLY last year, and that should continue to get better this year with the stud back. 

    Northern Colorado is sort of in rebuilding mode after losing their key players, most notably last year's BSKY MVP in Bietzel. They also lost three other starters and this Proctor you speak of had really good freshman and sophomore years under the old coach, but really had trouble getting on the floor under Hill last year. I saw em play at Illinois last year, replacing that backcourt is gonna be tough.

    GL
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 5:35 PM ET #84

    Quote Originally Posted by hollywoodundead:

    also wash -21 vs georgia st in the dawg poundd. I have georgia st as a last 5 team in nation.

    It's a possibility. Georgia State isn't bottom five. New coach Ron Hunter's hasn't had a losing season in over a decade. I would probably put them 50+ spots ahead of Northern Colorado. Granted, he's probably going to struggle out of the gates, but this team has athletes and return the key spots (PG, C). They also bring in the coaches kid next year, who was recruited by the likes of Cincinnati, Illinois, Michigan, etc...Team is going in the right direction, especially with an offensive minded coach. Washington is a big fat question mark, even at home. They lost all their offense, and had a horrendous defense last year. 

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollywoodundead:

    also wash -21 vs georgia st in the dawg poundd. I have georgia st as a last 5 team in nation.

    It's a possibility. Georgia State isn't bottom five. New coach Ron Hunter's hasn't had a losing season in over a decade. I would probably put them 50+ spots ahead of Northern Colorado. Granted, he's probably going to struggle out of the gates, but this team has athletes and return the key spots (PG, C). They also bring in the coaches kid next year, who was recruited by the likes of Cincinnati, Illinois, Michigan, etc...Team is going in the right direction, especially with an offensive minded coach. Washington is a big fat question mark, even at home. They lost all their offense, and had a horrendous defense last year. 

    GL
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 5:39 PM ET #85

    Quote Originally Posted by perrier:

    Nropp, big fan here. You earned my trust with your UC Davis - Sac State pick early last year. 

    As a refresher for all of us, can you do a short summary on your method and philosophy of capping? You've said many times that you watch tons of games. What are your three tops stats you look at when studying teams (FT%, asst/TO ration, # of possessions?)

    Thanks and best of luck.

    Study coaches, watch games, learn tendencies.

    Stats are just a filler as what you see happen.

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by perrier:

    Nropp, big fan here. You earned my trust with your UC Davis - Sac State pick early last year. 

    As a refresher for all of us, can you do a short summary on your method and philosophy of capping? You've said many times that you watch tons of games. What are your three tops stats you look at when studying teams (FT%, asst/TO ration, # of possessions?)

    Thanks and best of luck.

    Study coaches, watch games, learn tendencies.

    Stats are just a filler as what you see happen.

    GL
     
    Poor-Derf
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 6:51 PM ET #86

    U r amazing. Please take my advice. Never respond to any negative posts. If u ignore they will go away. And u knw hatred will come. It seems some people on here don't like winners. U r the best. But people think that means u win them all. Gl and thx
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    U r amazing. Please take my advice. Never respond to any negative posts. If u ignore they will go away. And u knw hatred will come. It seems some people on here don't like winners. U r the best. But people think that means u win them all. Gl and thx
     
    AgainstDaConsen
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 8:23 PM ET #87

    Hope to see you on the Duq/Ariz over tom... Logic dictates that Duq offense will be more consistent this year as the team has matured... love your thoughts... 

     to a profitable year


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    Hope to see you on the Duq/Ariz over tom... Logic dictates that Duq offense will be more consistent this year as the team has matured... love your thoughts... 

     to a profitable year


     
    TRoe15
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2011 - 8:56 PM ET #88

    I'm hoping you're a little long on that Buffalo line. Looking to hit the Bulls around -4.5/5.

    I've only run through about a quarter of the Friday card so far, but that's one that definitely stands out if you are a little long on it.

    Appreciate all that you do, Neil. Great asset.

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    I'm hoping you're a little long on that Buffalo line. Looking to hit the Bulls around -4.5/5.

    I've only run through about a quarter of the Friday card so far, but that's one that definitely stands out if you are a little long on it.

    Appreciate all that you do, Neil. Great asset.

     
    DrWebster
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 1:26 AM ET #89

    nropp, your insight is incredible. st johns 1h seems appealing--i see them coming out strong after that terrible 1h showing vs W&M. Also i have interest in miss st 1h... thoughts? leans for tomorrow?

     

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    nropp, your insight is incredible. st johns 1h seems appealing--i see them coming out strong after that terrible 1h showing vs W&M. Also i have interest in miss st 1h... thoughts? leans for tomorrow?

     

     
    loserkid32
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 8:49 AM ET #90

    Nropp how do you feel about the under in tonights st. John lehigh game?
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    Nropp how do you feel about the under in tonights st. John lehigh game?
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 9:52 AM ET #91

    Quote Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

    Hope to see you on the Duq/Ariz over tom... Logic dictates that Duq offense will be more consistent this year as the team has matured... love your thoughts... 

     to a profitable year



    I think the over is the right side, but it's a bit early for me to invest in such a high over with Duquesne travelling cross country. I think the pace will be where it needs to, but I also think both teams will be top 50 defenses by year's end. On a side note, if you throw out the two overtime games the past two years, a Sean Miller coached ballclub at home out of conference is only allowing an average of 59 points a game. I think Zona will have a slight advantage on the inside. Curious to see if they slow the pace and take advantage. Also curious to see the defensive style of Duquesne, as it should take another big leap forward this year.

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

    Hope to see you on the Duq/Ariz over tom... Logic dictates that Duq offense will be more consistent this year as the team has matured... love your thoughts... 

     to a profitable year



    I think the over is the right side, but it's a bit early for me to invest in such a high over with Duquesne travelling cross country. I think the pace will be where it needs to, but I also think both teams will be top 50 defenses by year's end. On a side note, if you throw out the two overtime games the past two years, a Sean Miller coached ballclub at home out of conference is only allowing an average of 59 points a game. I think Zona will have a slight advantage on the inside. Curious to see if they slow the pace and take advantage. Also curious to see the defensive style of Duquesne, as it should take another big leap forward this year.

    GL
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 10:03 AM ET #92

    Quote Originally Posted by DrWebster:

    nropp, your insight is incredible. st johns 1h seems appealing--i see them coming out strong after that terrible 1h showing vs W&M. Also i have interest in miss st 1h... thoughts? leans for tomorrow?

     


    Not a big half guy myself. Looking at Duquesne/Zona and Akron/MSST. Won't have a play, maybe a lean.

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrWebster:

    nropp, your insight is incredible. st johns 1h seems appealing--i see them coming out strong after that terrible 1h showing vs W&M. Also i have interest in miss st 1h... thoughts? leans for tomorrow?

     


    Not a big half guy myself. Looking at Duquesne/Zona and Akron/MSST. Won't have a play, maybe a lean.

    GL
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 10:07 AM ET #93

    Quote Originally Posted by loserkid32:

    Nropp how do you feel about the under in tonights st. John lehigh game?

    Generally don't deal with teams I won't be dealing with for the entire year. I haven't studied up on Lehigh or Liberty.
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    Quote Originally Posted by loserkid32:

    Nropp how do you feel about the under in tonights st. John lehigh game?

    Generally don't deal with teams I won't be dealing with for the entire year. I haven't studied up on Lehigh or Liberty.
     
    STEELERS in 07
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 10:49 AM ET #94

    Neil do you have certain situations that create automatic no plays for you? Like how you said "13th two easy games to cross off because both teams are on back-to-backs"? Is that something you always avoid and is there any other things that make automatic plays? Just wondering
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    Neil do you have certain situations that create automatic no plays for you? Like how you said "13th two easy games to cross off because both teams are on back-to-backs"? Is that something you always avoid and is there any other things that make automatic plays? Just wondering
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 11:06 AM ET #95

    Quote Originally Posted by STEELERS in 07:

    Neil do you have certain situations that create automatic no plays for you? Like how you said "13th two easy games to cross off because both teams are on back-to-backs"? Is that something you always avoid and is there any other things that make automatic plays? Just wondering

    In terms of scheduling, I hate travel and teams playing on back to back games. Also hate teams coming off a good shooting performances.

    Will be a few spots where I play teams this year in those scenarios, but generally that's all I got. Nothing is really automatic.
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    Quote Originally Posted by STEELERS in 07:

    Neil do you have certain situations that create automatic no plays for you? Like how you said "13th two easy games to cross off because both teams are on back-to-backs"? Is that something you always avoid and is there any other things that make automatic plays? Just wondering

    In terms of scheduling, I hate travel and teams playing on back to back games. Also hate teams coming off a good shooting performances.

    Will be a few spots where I play teams this year in those scenarios, but generally that's all I got. Nothing is really automatic.
     
    SteveWellmer
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 11:07 AM ET #96

    Hey Neil, would you comment on my question in post 72? I know you are bearish on the MAC-West in general (I don't blame you) but I think Western and BSU both will have 20+ win teams and I wouldn't be surprised if both have + records against the East this year. Though the loss of J.Howard Jr will hurt Western but I think they'll be solid; beat the teams they should beat and steal a couple along the way. I've read what you've posted about the wildcats and I know they'll have a couple games under their belts but I think BSU could keep this close. The only other thing I think might be a factor is that BSU beat Miller's '89 Pitt team when he was the starting PG. I doubt he forgets that and mentions it to his troops.
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    Hey Neil, would you comment on my question in post 72? I know you are bearish on the MAC-West in general (I don't blame you) but I think Western and BSU both will have 20+ win teams and I wouldn't be surprised if both have + records against the East this year. Though the loss of J.Howard Jr will hurt Western but I think they'll be solid; beat the teams they should beat and steal a couple along the way. I've read what you've posted about the wildcats and I know they'll have a couple games under their belts but I think BSU could keep this close. The only other thing I think might be a factor is that BSU beat Miller's '89 Pitt team when he was the starting PG. I doubt he forgets that and mentions it to his troops.
     
    lmontalv
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 11:25 AM ET #97

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Great stuff. I see you didnt mention AZ losing their main man. That has to affect them scoring wise as well as both ends on the blocks.

     



    Watched AZ the other night and it's obvious they don't have a real go to guy yet... My guess judging from what i saw  that role will be distributed b/t fogg, johnson (fresh), and turner (fresh).... If there's a time to fade AZ it's going to be early in the season as they're breaking in a freshman backcourt and lack a true low post threat... not to mention AZ is currently not a good FT shooting team... AZ did lose to a div II team in exhibition...
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Great stuff. I see you didnt mention AZ losing their main man. That has to affect them scoring wise as well as both ends on the blocks.

     



    Watched AZ the other night and it's obvious they don't have a real go to guy yet... My guess judging from what i saw  that role will be distributed b/t fogg, johnson (fresh), and turner (fresh).... If there's a time to fade AZ it's going to be early in the season as they're breaking in a freshman backcourt and lack a true low post threat... not to mention AZ is currently not a good FT shooting team... AZ did lose to a div II team in exhibition...
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 11:30 AM ET #98

    Quote Originally Posted by SteveWellmer:

    Hey Neil, would you comment on my question in post 72? I know you are bearish on the MAC-West in general (I don't blame you) but I think Western and BSU both will have 20+ win teams and I wouldn't be surprised if both have + records against the East this year. Though the loss of J.Howard Jr will hurt Western but I think they'll be solid; beat the teams they should beat and steal a couple along the way. I've read what you've posted about the wildcats and I know they'll have a couple games under their belts but I think BSU could keep this close. The only other thing I think might be a factor is that BSU beat Miller's '89 Pitt team when he was the starting PG. I doubt he forgets that and mentions it to his troops.

    Must have missed that one. I think the Arizona/Duquesne game tonight probably tells us where the Ball State/Zona line is on Friday. I know you brought it up, but the fact that Arizona’s will have played a few home games already could be a big difference. Also, does Arizona take some confidence into the game or are they down on themselves if they lose to Duquesne. A couple big question marks in terms intangibles leading up to that game. As far as winning that half of the West, it’s them and WMU. Maybe throw some consideration to the Chippewas for the sole purpose of Ziegler. CMU had a brilliant recruiting class come in and Ziegler is showing that he wants to win now, not build the program for a few years. I probably still give Ball State the nod in the West, but I can’t put them ahead of Kent State, Ohio, or Akron in terms of being a tournament team I don’t think. Time will tell. Offensively, they’re very sound. They had some major turnover issues with the PG position last year. Defensively, I was expecting for them to take a hit, but with what you are saying and what I’ve read, it looks like they may take a move forward. The trip to Canada they were very impressive defensively. I have the home date with Butler circled; schedule sets up nicely before to prepare for that one for a good week. It could be a very good win, and a great spot for value. You sound like you got a good grasp on the team, feel free to stop by share your thoughts.

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveWellmer:

    Hey Neil, would you comment on my question in post 72? I know you are bearish on the MAC-West in general (I don't blame you) but I think Western and BSU both will have 20+ win teams and I wouldn't be surprised if both have + records against the East this year. Though the loss of J.Howard Jr will hurt Western but I think they'll be solid; beat the teams they should beat and steal a couple along the way. I've read what you've posted about the wildcats and I know they'll have a couple games under their belts but I think BSU could keep this close. The only other thing I think might be a factor is that BSU beat Miller's '89 Pitt team when he was the starting PG. I doubt he forgets that and mentions it to his troops.

    Must have missed that one. I think the Arizona/Duquesne game tonight probably tells us where the Ball State/Zona line is on Friday. I know you brought it up, but the fact that Arizona’s will have played a few home games already could be a big difference. Also, does Arizona take some confidence into the game or are they down on themselves if they lose to Duquesne. A couple big question marks in terms intangibles leading up to that game. As far as winning that half of the West, it’s them and WMU. Maybe throw some consideration to the Chippewas for the sole purpose of Ziegler. CMU had a brilliant recruiting class come in and Ziegler is showing that he wants to win now, not build the program for a few years. I probably still give Ball State the nod in the West, but I can’t put them ahead of Kent State, Ohio, or Akron in terms of being a tournament team I don’t think. Time will tell. Offensively, they’re very sound. They had some major turnover issues with the PG position last year. Defensively, I was expecting for them to take a hit, but with what you are saying and what I’ve read, it looks like they may take a move forward. The trip to Canada they were very impressive defensively. I have the home date with Butler circled; schedule sets up nicely before to prepare for that one for a good week. It could be a very good win, and a great spot for value. You sound like you got a good grasp on the team, feel free to stop by share your thoughts.

    GL
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 11:32 AM ET #99

    Quote Originally Posted by lmontalv:



    Watched AZ the other night and it's obvious they don't have a real go to guy yet... My guess judging from what i saw  that role will be distributed b/t fogg, johnson (fresh), and turner (fresh).... If there's a time to fade AZ it's going to be early in the season as they're breaking in a freshman backcourt and lack a true low post threat... not to mention AZ is currently not a good FT shooting team... AZ did lose to a div II team in exhibition...

    Good teams lose to bad teams all the time. Reason they play the game. I do think Arizona is struggling in certain factions of the game, but it's early. Time will tell. Should contend in a "down" P-12.

    GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by lmontalv:



    Watched AZ the other night and it's obvious they don't have a real go to guy yet... My guess judging from what i saw  that role will be distributed b/t fogg, johnson (fresh), and turner (fresh).... If there's a time to fade AZ it's going to be early in the season as they're breaking in a freshman backcourt and lack a true low post threat... not to mention AZ is currently not a good FT shooting team... AZ did lose to a div II team in exhibition...

    Good teams lose to bad teams all the time. Reason they play the game. I do think Arizona is struggling in certain factions of the game, but it's early. Time will tell. Should contend in a "down" P-12.

    GL
     
     
    AgainstDaConsen
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2011 - 12:21 PM ET #100

    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    I think the over is the right side, but it's a bit early for me to invest in such a high over with Duquesne travelling cross country. I think the pace will be where it needs to, but I also think both teams will be top 50 defenses by year's end. On a side note, if you throw out the two overtime games the past two years, a Sean Miller coached ballclub at home out of conference is only allowing an average of 59 points a game. I think Zona will have a slight advantage on the inside. Curious to see if they slow the pace and take advantage. Also curious to see the defensive style of Duquesne, as it should take another big leap forward this year.

    GL

    good stuff, but Duq a top 50 defense? would definately be surprising... I am gonna lay the over tonight as my first play of the year...  Gonna try to focus on totals this year.  

    would love to here your thoughts on oher big south clubs, specifically winthrop and Gardner-Webb 
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    Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


    I think the over is the right side, but it's a bit early for me to invest in such a high over with Duquesne travelling cross country. I think the pace will be where it needs to, but I also think both teams will be top 50 defenses by year's end. On a side note, if you throw out the two overtime games the past two years, a Sean Miller coached ballclub at home out of conference is only allowing an average of 59 points a game. I think Zona will have a slight advantage on the inside. Curious to see if they slow the pace and take advantage. Also curious to see the defensive style of Duquesne, as it should take another big leap forward this year.

    GL

    good stuff, but Duq a top 50 defense? would definately be surprising... I am gonna lay the over tonight as my first play of the year...  Gonna try to focus on totals this year.  

    would love to here your thoughts on oher big south clubs, specifically winthrop and Gardner-Webb 
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