November Hoops

I’m not interested in anything tonight. The only game that really looks appealing is the Tribe/STJ game, but there is so many question marks going in on both sides that it’s just not a sound investment to take a stab at anything from my perspective. It looks as if Quinn McDowell is going to play. How much of a factor will he be? I have no clue. He hasn’t practiced nearly enough, if at all, so conditioning is going to play a part. He was on the court 80+% of the time last year and is a major factor both offensively and defensively. They are also without Rusthoven (key defensive player and offensive role player), and without Gaillard who would be the 2nd leading minute guy they have returning and another integral part of their defense.  As for STJ, I’ve been studying a bit of Dunlap, who is expected to man the bench for Lavin tonight, and the guy is pretty smart. The key thing with him throughout the years is his X and O approach to the game. Being an X and O type of a guy myself, I can appreciate what this guy brings. Lavin brings the intensity, this guy brings the smarts. He’s had this core for the better part of the offseason and practice, so he knows what he’s getting into tonight. Taking a step back and looking at everything I just mentioned, that’s quite a few question marks going into the first game of the season on both sides. But, as far as making a case for the game and what I think will happen. On the William & Mary side of things, they lose two key defensive players from a defense that was awful last year, and those spots will be filled by two more people who can take the outside shot unlike the two they’ll be missing. Tony Shaver coached teams shoot the 3ball just as much as any other team in the country (28th in 2009, 3rd in 2010, 10th last season). They are not afraid to shoot it. Now, you lose two guys who rarely shoot it, yet those guys were key in the offense from a ball reversal and role playing stance. You fill those two voids with your 6th and 7th men off the bench who can shoot the 3, and there is no question that they continue the trend. They live by the 3, they die by it. To give you an idea, if McDowell is in the starting lineup tonight, the starting five coming into the game tonight will have attempted over 550 three’s last year alone. Put the two guys in that are missing because of injury, and you’re looking at around 350-375. So from the Tribe perspective, they get worse on defense, and they’re probably going to attempt more three pointers than they do on average (which is insane to say). I tried to find a reason with the current lineup to see how they don’t continue to attempt more three’s and I just can’t. When you lose offensive role players and key players, you lose a bit of rhythm that you had developed and almost always settle for the three and I expect that to hold to form tonight. On the STJ side of things, Dunlap’s going to run and he would be dumb not to. And – he’s familiar with it. As an assistant with Arizona, he ran. As an assistant with Oregon, he ran. Last year, a great majority of the time out of conference, Lavin ran and did it fast. More importantly, when STJ played someone that liked to control the tempo or play a half court game, he didn’t let them. Lavin has always been pinpointed to totally do the reverse of what his players are accustomed to doing so that he can have an advantage in any given matchup, and I expect him and Dunlap to do that tonight. Clearly, they are young. You can’t bring young players in and slow the game down for them. You may try to an extent, but young players need experience before the game can be dumbed down for them. It’s obvious William & Mary has depth issues, so how does a coach combat that, you run. And when you are young, players will run more.  Granted, I could be reading way too much into the injuries and external crap going on, but that’s how I see the game. St. John’s should get up and down and control the tempo, and I don’t think William & Mary is going to be able to defend as well as it wants. On the flip side, William & Mary depends on the three ball, and gets more attempts and possessions b/c of the lineup issues and tempo. Sort of makes for a good case for the over if I think that’s the way the game plays out and think WM can knock down some shots, but I’m not touching it. Gun to head, probably the over, but again, it’s tough for me to make an over play this early in the season and it’s way to early to be putting a gun to my head.

GL