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    All Forums | College Basketball

    November Hoops

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    nropp11
    miniman44444
    CDuff311
    msobviously
    gynecologist
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    nropp11
    nropp11
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2011 - 5:37 PM ET #1

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    I have not completely finished up off-season junk and waiting on a few of these exhibition games to play out for a bit more info before I completely wrap that up and go full steam. Had some time today to actually get away from season outlooks and look at some matchups. Yes, I’m way too early but I needed a break from all the other garbage. So, we’ll get it started. As always, time permitting, hope to post as often as I can, answer any and all questions as I can, and enjoy some nice back and forth on the game. All of November will be found here, will start a new thread monthly.

    2K Classic Field
    11/7-11/18

    Initial Thoughts: Weak field and I hate the way this is set up. Regardless of initial series of games, the four teams for MSG are set, which pretty much deems the earlier games pointless (in a tiny way). 

    St. John’s: I would probably rate them anywhere from the 3 to the 6 in the field. I think it’s one of those “back-to-reality” type settings for the squad this year. Last year, they played quite a few close ball games and came out on top in a majority of those. They played unreal at MSG (believe they were 7-1), and they played out of their minds against top level talent. They lost a ton from last year, although Lavin does bring in a really, really, really good recruiting class. They’ll have the talent to compete in the Big East, but I’m eyeing probably a bottom to mid-level BE trip. There are really two things I’m looking to avoid early with St. John’s, and that’s the youth movement (especially in the Big East), and coaching. Lavin had surgery for prostate cancer and is recovering still. He has yet to attend an exhibition, although he is getting film from practice on a daily basis. Having a familiar staff or not, Lavin is one of those coaches that needs to be there to get his point across. This is probably a team I look more after mid-season, and try to avoid or fade early. I just don’t believe the chemistry will be there, but then again, they’ll be in the Garden here in this setting. In the Queens regional here, I don’t really sense any competition from William & Mary or Lehigh, but they do get the luxury of playing two similar teams prior to heading off to MSG. The results should be pretty similar in both games, assuming there is no youth movement look-ahead to the big stage in game #2.

    Arizona: I would probably rate them top 2 in this field. The problem is, they have the toughest draw of any team here, even though they’ll get two of those regional games at home. With that said, there might be some value once they hit the Garden. In the regional games, they’ll get Valpo game #1, and Duquesne #2. In terms of how they rank, I’m probably looking at Valpo mid-tier Horizon league and Duquesne upper quarter of the A-10. Both teams travel West for the regional, so slight advantage to Arizona, also noting Duquesne’s style of play and the travel setting in probably after the first few days. As for Zona, they should contend for the Pac title with Washington. They return a ton, lost the stud, but the pieces should be in place in a weak conference to contend, and they also had a strong recruiting class. I could care less the results of the first two regional games, I will be eyeing the value when they draw St. John’s in the Garden. They have an almost perfect matchup against the St. John’s zone, and have the perfect mix of talent to beat it. Granted, this is probably a top 25 team for sure with Parrom, and it sounds like he will be back sooner, rather than later, perhaps by conference season. He was shot in the leg while visiting his mother, who had cancer at the time about a month ago. She’s since passed (over the weekend). Rough month for this kid. They have the talent to replace him though. This team is good, just to give you an idea, they sold out their inner-squad scrimmage....
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    I have not completely finished up off-season junk and waiting on a few of these exhibition games to play out for a bit more info before I completely wrap that up and go full steam. Had some time today to actually get away from season outlooks and look at some matchups. Yes, I’m way too early but I needed a break from all the other garbage. So, we’ll get it started. As always, time permitting, hope to post as often as I can, answer any and all questions as I can, and enjoy some nice back and forth on the game. All of November will be found here, will start a new thread monthly.

    2K Classic Field
    11/7-11/18

    Initial Thoughts: Weak field and I hate the way this is set up. Regardless of initial series of games, the four teams for MSG are set, which pretty much deems the earlier games pointless (in a tiny way). 

    St. John’s: I would probably rate them anywhere from the 3 to the 6 in the field. I think it’s one of those “back-to-reality” type settings for the squad this year. Last year, they played quite a few close ball games and came out on top in a majority of those. They played unreal at MSG (believe they were 7-1), and they played out of their minds against top level talent. They lost a ton from last year, although Lavin does bring in a really, really, really good recruiting class. They’ll have the talent to compete in the Big East, but I’m eyeing probably a bottom to mid-level BE trip. There are really two things I’m looking to avoid early with St. John’s, and that’s the youth movement (especially in the Big East), and coaching. Lavin had surgery for prostate cancer and is recovering still. He has yet to attend an exhibition, although he is getting film from practice on a daily basis. Having a familiar staff or not, Lavin is one of those coaches that needs to be there to get his point across. This is probably a team I look more after mid-season, and try to avoid or fade early. I just don’t believe the chemistry will be there, but then again, they’ll be in the Garden here in this setting. In the Queens regional here, I don’t really sense any competition from William & Mary or Lehigh, but they do get the luxury of playing two similar teams prior to heading off to MSG. The results should be pretty similar in both games, assuming there is no youth movement look-ahead to the big stage in game #2.

    Arizona: I would probably rate them top 2 in this field. The problem is, they have the toughest draw of any team here, even though they’ll get two of those regional games at home. With that said, there might be some value once they hit the Garden. In the regional games, they’ll get Valpo game #1, and Duquesne #2. In terms of how they rank, I’m probably looking at Valpo mid-tier Horizon league and Duquesne upper quarter of the A-10. Both teams travel West for the regional, so slight advantage to Arizona, also noting Duquesne’s style of play and the travel setting in probably after the first few days. As for Zona, they should contend for the Pac title with Washington. They return a ton, lost the stud, but the pieces should be in place in a weak conference to contend, and they also had a strong recruiting class. I could care less the results of the first two regional games, I will be eyeing the value when they draw St. John’s in the Garden. They have an almost perfect matchup against the St. John’s zone, and have the perfect mix of talent to beat it. Granted, this is probably a top 25 team for sure with Parrom, and it sounds like he will be back sooner, rather than later, perhaps by conference season. He was shot in the leg while visiting his mother, who had cancer at the time about a month ago. She’s since passed (over the weekend). Rough month for this kid. They have the talent to replace him though. This team is good, just to give you an idea, they sold out their inner-squad scrimmage....
     
    nropp11
    nropp11
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2011 - 5:38 PM ET #2

    Texas A&M: I would probably rate them top 2 in this field as well. Defensively, they’re always solid and they return a nice core of that, along with a majority of their scoring threats. Ironically, a scheduling conflict only has them playing one game prior to the trip to MSG, so not sure if that hurts or helps their chances. They’re the only final four squad here that’s only going to play one game prior, and it’s the horrific task of facing a Liberty team, that’s a bit of sarcasm. They’re opponent when they reach the final quadrant will be Mississippi State who probably is in the bottom half of the SEC this year in terms of late-season dynamics. Texas A&M, as they always are should stay in that mid to mid-high half of the B12. This Texas A&M team is sort of in the same situation as another team in this classic, and that’s St. John’s. Kennedy, who came over from Murray State, just recently took an undisclosed medical leave and hasn’t rejoined the team yet, which actually makes this situation worse than what St. John’s is going through. First year coach and staff not all that familiar with the players is a bit tougher than a coach who’s been in the position for a bit I would think. This is a team that’s lacked offensive firepower at times, lost a few threats, and bringing Kennedy in, I would expect the defense to be even better surprisingly, but I can’t really find a reason the offense is going to change. Sure, they’ll have their games where they’re clicking, but more often than not, I think they’ll struggle offensively. Defense will keep them in it though.

    Mississippi State: They got some talent in Bost & Sidney, I’m just not impressed. Year after year, they are a completely different team on the road than at home and year after year they have high expectations, and fall flat on their face. Sidney stays out of trouble, they probably have a chance, but that has yet to happen. Defense really hasn’t had a strong identity in recent years, so the verdict isn’t really out yet, but my initial feel is they’ll struggle as they lost some key role players. They struggled mightily in low possession games against good defenses last year, something definitely to note for the upcoming season. I guess I’m more confused with this squad that anything, never really know what you’re going to get. 

    Akron: Probably top 6 here, maybe even top 4. I think the verdict’s still out. MAC was definitely down last year from a defensive perspective and the team go hot at the right time towards the end. They still won 23 games and got into the tournament. One would think the loss of Brett McKnight will hurt a bit, but for those that paid attention to my rants last year, he really either a) disappointed or b) got in the doghouse somehow b/c he wasn’t really a focal point of the team after being such a key contributor the past few years prior. With that said, the MAC still blows. It’s them and Kent probably contending for a title as usual, and you’ll have a few sneak up from nowhere, probably Buffalo and a very talented Ohio team that is poorly coached. 

    Duquesne: No worse than top 5, possibly put them top 3. Thing that shocks me about this team is they went from playing one of the most hectic styles of play in recent years to playing a really, really fundamental game even at a higher pace than the average team plays at and they did it really well last year. I think they have a chance to contend in the A-10 without a doubt but going on the road to Arizona to start off the year isn’t really all that enticing, especially when even if you win you don’t go to MSG in this dumb format of a tourney. They return quite a bit, not sure they have enough of favoring in their schedule because they do play at Temple, at Xavier, at Dayton, and at St. Louis. Granted, they do get a chance with Dayton and STL at home as well, but they don’t get that chance with Temple and Xavier. 

    Which games am I interested in this 2K Classic? Well, cross out any game involving Lehigh, Liberty, UDC, Indiana Kokomo (huh?), and Hiram. I will also cross off all of the subregional games in Lynchburg and Valpo, b/c all of the teams are going to be playing back-to-back-to-backers. Seriously, three straight days of basketball, and a majority of the schedule shows teams playing two games in a 24 hour window. Akron’s the only team who won’t play two games in a 24 hour window or three games in three days as Dambrot is a bit smarter than that so he’s only playing a back-to-back, with Valpo and Duquesne, which is probably the toughest two game set in the Subregionals (plus he'd rather play a team called Hiram before delving into the back-to-back stuff). That pretty much leaves one game with interest:

    11/17 St. John’s and Arizona (MSG)

    If anyone is interested in any of the other teams in this field, just ask. I just have no interest in looking at majority of the matchups b/c of the scheduling situation and b2b2b scenarios. Looks like Friday the 11th is the first really decent slate. Start on that as time permits, next.

    GL

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    Texas A&M: I would probably rate them top 2 in this field as well. Defensively, they’re always solid and they return a nice core of that, along with a majority of their scoring threats. Ironically, a scheduling conflict only has them playing one game prior to the trip to MSG, so not sure if that hurts or helps their chances. They’re the only final four squad here that’s only going to play one game prior, and it’s the horrific task of facing a Liberty team, that’s a bit of sarcasm. They’re opponent when they reach the final quadrant will be Mississippi State who probably is in the bottom half of the SEC this year in terms of late-season dynamics. Texas A&M, as they always are should stay in that mid to mid-high half of the B12. This Texas A&M team is sort of in the same situation as another team in this classic, and that’s St. John’s. Kennedy, who came over from Murray State, just recently took an undisclosed medical leave and hasn’t rejoined the team yet, which actually makes this situation worse than what St. John’s is going through. First year coach and staff not all that familiar with the players is a bit tougher than a coach who’s been in the position for a bit I would think. This is a team that’s lacked offensive firepower at times, lost a few threats, and bringing Kennedy in, I would expect the defense to be even better surprisingly, but I can’t really find a reason the offense is going to change. Sure, they’ll have their games where they’re clicking, but more often than not, I think they’ll struggle offensively. Defense will keep them in it though.

    Mississippi State: They got some talent in Bost & Sidney, I’m just not impressed. Year after year, they are a completely different team on the road than at home and year after year they have high expectations, and fall flat on their face. Sidney stays out of trouble, they probably have a chance, but that has yet to happen. Defense really hasn’t had a strong identity in recent years, so the verdict isn’t really out yet, but my initial feel is they’ll struggle as they lost some key role players. They struggled mightily in low possession games against good defenses last year, something definitely to note for the upcoming season. I guess I’m more confused with this squad that anything, never really know what you’re going to get. 

    Akron: Probably top 6 here, maybe even top 4. I think the verdict’s still out. MAC was definitely down last year from a defensive perspective and the team go hot at the right time towards the end. They still won 23 games and got into the tournament. One would think the loss of Brett McKnight will hurt a bit, but for those that paid attention to my rants last year, he really either a) disappointed or b) got in the doghouse somehow b/c he wasn’t really a focal point of the team after being such a key contributor the past few years prior. With that said, the MAC still blows. It’s them and Kent probably contending for a title as usual, and you’ll have a few sneak up from nowhere, probably Buffalo and a very talented Ohio team that is poorly coached. 

    Duquesne: No worse than top 5, possibly put them top 3. Thing that shocks me about this team is they went from playing one of the most hectic styles of play in recent years to playing a really, really fundamental game even at a higher pace than the average team plays at and they did it really well last year. I think they have a chance to contend in the A-10 without a doubt but going on the road to Arizona to start off the year isn’t really all that enticing, especially when even if you win you don’t go to MSG in this dumb format of a tourney. They return quite a bit, not sure they have enough of favoring in their schedule because they do play at Temple, at Xavier, at Dayton, and at St. Louis. Granted, they do get a chance with Dayton and STL at home as well, but they don’t get that chance with Temple and Xavier. 

    Which games am I interested in this 2K Classic? Well, cross out any game involving Lehigh, Liberty, UDC, Indiana Kokomo (huh?), and Hiram. I will also cross off all of the subregional games in Lynchburg and Valpo, b/c all of the teams are going to be playing back-to-back-to-backers. Seriously, three straight days of basketball, and a majority of the schedule shows teams playing two games in a 24 hour window. Akron’s the only team who won’t play two games in a 24 hour window or three games in three days as Dambrot is a bit smarter than that so he’s only playing a back-to-back, with Valpo and Duquesne, which is probably the toughest two game set in the Subregionals (plus he'd rather play a team called Hiram before delving into the back-to-back stuff). That pretty much leaves one game with interest:

    11/17 St. John’s and Arizona (MSG)

    If anyone is interested in any of the other teams in this field, just ask. I just have no interest in looking at majority of the matchups b/c of the scheduling situation and b2b2b scenarios. Looks like Friday the 11th is the first really decent slate. Start on that as time permits, next.

    GL

     
    miniman44444
    miniman44444
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2011 - 9:19 PM ET #3

    good stuff bro cant wait
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    good stuff bro cant wait
     
    CDuff311
    CDuff311
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2011 - 12:28 AM ET #4

    I know Akron is Akron, but the Zippers are going to be tough this year!! This could be their best team they've had in a long time. Could be a nice pick for this event. Nice right ups btw!!
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    I know Akron is Akron, but the Zippers are going to be tough this year!! This could be their best team they've had in a long time. Could be a nice pick for this event. Nice right ups btw!!
     
    msobviously
    msobviously
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2011 - 2:26 PM ET #5

    nice info ,i like the way you are seeing things,hope to see you around alot this cbb season..............best of luck to you,MO
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    nice info ,i like the way you are seeing things,hope to see you around alot this cbb season..............best of luck to you,MO
     
    gynecologist
    gynecologist
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2011 - 7:19 PM ET #6

    hope to see a lot of you during CBB man..  you are one sharp cat!
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    hope to see a lot of you during CBB man..  you are one sharp cat!
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2011 - 7:44 PM ET #7

    Great stuff. I see you didnt mention AZ losing their main man. That has to affect them scoring wise as well as both ends on the blocks.

     

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    Great stuff. I see you didnt mention AZ losing their main man. That has to affect them scoring wise as well as both ends on the blocks.

     

     
    JFen31
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2011 - 8:01 PM ET #8

    Great stuff, Neil. I'm doing something similar in my thread breaking down some of the more interesting, though not neccessarily most popular games.

    It's a lot more fun than poring over long and tedious Blue Ribbon reports and twitter feeds.

    Haven't gotten to the preseason tourneys yet, but I'll be checking back in your thread daily.

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    Great stuff, Neil. I'm doing something similar in my thread breaking down some of the more interesting, though not neccessarily most popular games.

    It's a lot more fun than poring over long and tedious Blue Ribbon reports and twitter feeds.

    Haven't gotten to the preseason tourneys yet, but I'll be checking back in your thread daily.

     
    THESHOOTER
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2011 - 9:25 PM ET #9

     lets get ready to rumble!!

     

    we are about to enter the best sports stretch of the year

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     lets get ready to rumble!!

     

    we are about to enter the best sports stretch of the year

     
    STEELERS in 07
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2011 - 7:45 AM ET #10

    Excellent write-ups bud! Here's to a great year
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    Excellent write-ups bud! Here's to a great year
     
    beaverfan23
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2011 - 11:16 AM ET #11

     cant wait for this shit to start
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     cant wait for this shit to start
     
    duquesne5
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2011 - 1:49 PM ET #12

    what do you think the line will be on Duquesne vs Zona.. I know Zona has a good tem again and duq is lacking size again, but their guard play should keep them in the game.. I'd expect it around zona favored by 7-10
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    what do you think the line will be on Duquesne vs Zona.. I know Zona has a good tem again and duq is lacking size again, but their guard play should keep them in the game.. I'd expect it around zona favored by 7-10
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2011 - 8:09 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by CDuff311:

    I know Akron is Akron, but the Zippers are going to be tough this year!! This could be their best team they've had in a long time. Could be a nice pick for this event. Nice right ups btw!!

    Could be. Quite a bit went right for where they ended up last year. They have a nice team to repeat, but....I think the loss of McKnight has some say in this year's results. Team will be extremely overvalued at the start I believe, for quite a while.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDuff311:

    I know Akron is Akron, but the Zippers are going to be tough this year!! This could be their best team they've had in a long time. Could be a nice pick for this event. Nice right ups btw!!

    Could be. Quite a bit went right for where they ended up last year. They have a nice team to repeat, but....I think the loss of McKnight has some say in this year's results. Team will be extremely overvalued at the start I believe, for quite a while.
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2011 - 8:11 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Great stuff. I see you didnt mention AZ losing their main man. That has to affect them scoring wise as well as both ends on the blocks.

     


    I mentioned the stud. Miller runs a system, somebody will step in. Can't emphasize this enough. The good coaches find replacements or adjust. The bad ones don't. This system has been consistent for years, with or without the beast.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Great stuff. I see you didnt mention AZ losing their main man. That has to affect them scoring wise as well as both ends on the blocks.

     


    I mentioned the stud. Miller runs a system, somebody will step in. Can't emphasize this enough. The good coaches find replacements or adjust. The bad ones don't. This system has been consistent for years, with or without the beast.
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2011 - 8:12 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

    Great stuff, Neil. I'm doing something similar in my thread breaking down some of the more interesting, though not neccessarily most popular games.

    It's a lot more fun than poring over long and tedious Blue Ribbon reports and twitter feeds.

    Haven't gotten to the preseason tourneys yet, but I'll be checking back in your thread daily.


    I hate blue ribbon for multiple reasons, will expand on that another day.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

    Great stuff, Neil. I'm doing something similar in my thread breaking down some of the more interesting, though not neccessarily most popular games.

    It's a lot more fun than poring over long and tedious Blue Ribbon reports and twitter feeds.

    Haven't gotten to the preseason tourneys yet, but I'll be checking back in your thread daily.


    I hate blue ribbon for multiple reasons, will expand on that another day.
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2011 - 8:16 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by duquesne5:

    what do you think the line will be on Duquesne vs Zona.. I know Zona has a good tem again and duq is lacking size again, but their guard play should keep them in the game.. I'd expect it around zona favored by 7-10

    Zona -13 or -14 assuming they take care of business in game1 with Valpo. If they don't, then probably -11 or -12. Sort of a strength versus strength with guard matchups. Zona's guards defensively are goooooood. Don't want to make it sound like I'm in Arizona's jock this far into the season, just haven't got to other teams quite yet. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by duquesne5:

    what do you think the line will be on Duquesne vs Zona.. I know Zona has a good tem again and duq is lacking size again, but their guard play should keep them in the game.. I'd expect it around zona favored by 7-10

    Zona -13 or -14 assuming they take care of business in game1 with Valpo. If they don't, then probably -11 or -12. Sort of a strength versus strength with guard matchups. Zona's guards defensively are goooooood. Don't want to make it sound like I'm in Arizona's jock this far into the season, just haven't got to other teams quite yet. 
     
    kindergartencapper
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2011 - 12:56 AM ET #17

    Here's to another good season for you
    Good luck this year

    Ignore the ignorant
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    Here's to another good season for you
    Good luck this year

    Ignore the ignorant
     
    bense197969
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2011 - 11:05 AM ET #18

    Good luck this year dude!  Can't wait, it's almost here!!  
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    Good luck this year dude!  Can't wait, it's almost here!!  
     
    samdude3
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    Posted: Oct. 28, 2011 - 12:01 PM ET #19

    Good Luck this year nropp!

    Lets kill it!!
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    Good Luck this year nropp!

    Lets kill it!!
     
    GWarner27
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2011 - 10:49 PM ET #20

    i'm looking to fade St. John's early and often this season
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    i'm looking to fade St. John's early and often this season
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 1, 2011 - 11:21 AM ET #21

    11/11

    As you will probably hear me say many times this year, I really have no interest in what I refer to as the “hoopla” games. Games that are covered immensely by various media outlets and games that generally garner quite a bit of attention from all areas of the globe. Case in point, UNC and Michigan State. The game is being played on ship. There is another reason for not touching Michigan State early and it’s the schedule. They’ll travel to San Diego for this game, then return and four days later play Duke at Madison Square Garden (where I assume Coach K will be going for the all-time wins record). UNC will be overvalued all season. As you will also probably hear me say many times this year, I have no interest in Ivy League basketball, so cross off Columbia and Uconn. The first real interesting game, to me anyways comes with UIC and Eastern Michigan. When UIC hired Moore to lead the team, he pretty much took the stance of no jucos or transfers, and started fresh. This will be his first recruiting class in and they’re terribly young, terribly inexperienced, and have to open on the road. Not only focusing on the incoming youth, but what they lost may be just as important. Robo Kreps meant everything to that program for a matter of four years. He was not only their leader on and off the court, but he was the main guy both offensively and defensively. On the flip side, I sincerely believe that the Eastern Michigan program is on the rebound. Hiring Rob Murphy from Syracuse was not only a good thing, but a well needed one. And the fact that Murphy chose EMU over Kent State sort of shows a thing or two as well. The recruits he brought into Syracuse (yes, he his Midwest ties brought in many prospects) worked out well. He has ties to the Detroit area, so this is a good hire. Aside from that, their exhibition games have exhibited some variations of a 2-3 and 3-2 zone which he brings from Syracuse and the offensive side of the ball has been pure up and down. MAC Teams facing this zone will be exposed. Granted, I’m not sure they’ll be all that great in season 1 here, but a few years down the road, this team will shape up to be one of the best in the MAC. In most instances, coaching changes and different philosophies really hamper a team’s start to a season, but I think in this case, EMU doesn’t really miss a beat. They’re use to running up and down, they’ve just had no offensive rhythm and lacked a coach who knew what he was doing defensively for about four years now. Offense is probably still lacking firepower, but I’m guessing the defense turns a complete 360 in terms of structure and rhythm (Projected: EMU -6). Northern Illinois is probably in the bottom 30 of all teams in the country in terms of how good they are, which means they’ll be awful. They brought in long time Michigan State assistant Mark Montgomery, which could play a decent role in the opener at Purdue with the amount of times he has matched up with them in the past. I would expect NIU to slow the pace down quite a bit, focus on the half court style of basketball quite a bit more, and rid the helter-skelter NIU has been accustomed to in previous years...
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    11/11

    As you will probably hear me say many times this year, I really have no interest in what I refer to as the “hoopla” games. Games that are covered immensely by various media outlets and games that generally garner quite a bit of attention from all areas of the globe. Case in point, UNC and Michigan State. The game is being played on ship. There is another reason for not touching Michigan State early and it’s the schedule. They’ll travel to San Diego for this game, then return and four days later play Duke at Madison Square Garden (where I assume Coach K will be going for the all-time wins record). UNC will be overvalued all season. As you will also probably hear me say many times this year, I have no interest in Ivy League basketball, so cross off Columbia and Uconn. The first real interesting game, to me anyways comes with UIC and Eastern Michigan. When UIC hired Moore to lead the team, he pretty much took the stance of no jucos or transfers, and started fresh. This will be his first recruiting class in and they’re terribly young, terribly inexperienced, and have to open on the road. Not only focusing on the incoming youth, but what they lost may be just as important. Robo Kreps meant everything to that program for a matter of four years. He was not only their leader on and off the court, but he was the main guy both offensively and defensively. On the flip side, I sincerely believe that the Eastern Michigan program is on the rebound. Hiring Rob Murphy from Syracuse was not only a good thing, but a well needed one. And the fact that Murphy chose EMU over Kent State sort of shows a thing or two as well. The recruits he brought into Syracuse (yes, he his Midwest ties brought in many prospects) worked out well. He has ties to the Detroit area, so this is a good hire. Aside from that, their exhibition games have exhibited some variations of a 2-3 and 3-2 zone which he brings from Syracuse and the offensive side of the ball has been pure up and down. MAC Teams facing this zone will be exposed. Granted, I’m not sure they’ll be all that great in season 1 here, but a few years down the road, this team will shape up to be one of the best in the MAC. In most instances, coaching changes and different philosophies really hamper a team’s start to a season, but I think in this case, EMU doesn’t really miss a beat. They’re use to running up and down, they’ve just had no offensive rhythm and lacked a coach who knew what he was doing defensively for about four years now. Offense is probably still lacking firepower, but I’m guessing the defense turns a complete 360 in terms of structure and rhythm (Projected: EMU -6). Northern Illinois is probably in the bottom 30 of all teams in the country in terms of how good they are, which means they’ll be awful. They brought in long time Michigan State assistant Mark Montgomery, which could play a decent role in the opener at Purdue with the amount of times he has matched up with them in the past. I would expect NIU to slow the pace down quite a bit, focus on the half court style of basketball quite a bit more, and rid the helter-skelter NIU has been accustomed to in previous years...
     
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 1, 2011 - 11:21 AM ET #22

    ...They don’t really return much, and they’ll be young. Another program that should be good in a few years, but opening up at Purdue is no easy task. They’ll struggle to score, probably lucky if they hit 60 here, unless Purdue chooses to run. Dartmouth/Rutgers Ivy throw out. UL Monroe bottom 10 in all of basketball. One of the worst offensive and defensive teams in the country last year, and lost some important seniors. Can’t really see how they get any better. They won 7 games last year, and four of them were schools I’ve never heard of. They return the Brown kid, who should have a really good year, but that’s more of a product of taking a ton of shot attempts rather than being great. More shots = more points, and he’ll hoist it up quite a bit. Towson/Kansas no thank you. Tulsa gets a chance to open the season in a pretty good scenario: revenge on Arkansas Little Rock. The game last year, Tulsa took care of business early and led by 15. Then Arky LR came back and led by 11 late, then Tulsa makes a run late and falls short. It ended up being a bad early season loss for Tulsa last year, but it also came in a lookahead position as they had Oklahoma State the game after that. As with every year, Tulsa has a pretty good athletic squad. Also, as with every year, Wojcik doesn’t really make any sense in terms of how he uses his talent. Some games they’ll run, some games they’ll slow the pace, and I’ve tried hours and hours upon trying to determine when he does and when he doesn’t and I just can’t come up with an answer. I think they’re definitely upper tier C-USA but, until I see a consistent pattern of “yes – we are athletic, let’s run” then I’m not sold and can’t really do much with them. They got a really, really favorable schedule for the conference season, so that’s why I got them in that upper tier. Arkansas LR, eh, Sun Belt is a mess this year and pretty even. They lose some nice talent, but return some nice talent as well and Shield’s system seems to fit kids to step right in year after year. I really don’t see any dropoff for them, but I don’t see them getting a lucky run and winning four consecutive days to get in the tourney either. Revenge is the theme here to open the season, Tulsa should be ready to go. Arky LR hasn’t got out of the 60’s on Tulsa in recent years, think they’re lucky to hit that this year (Projected: Tulsa -16). Haven’t had a feel on St. Joseph’s in what seems like forever, so throw them and WKU out. Cornell – Ivy, thrown out. Wright State and Ohio State – don’t really like investing in B-10 schools early in season. BYU and Utah State should be a decent game to watch, aside from a guy named Jimmer not being on the court. It’s probably a good idea to watch what these schools can do, also noting Utah State with revenge. It’s too bad that Pat Knight is out as head coach at Texas Tech or we could have seen a game more than likely in the 200+ range with Troy and Texas Tech. Billy Gillispe is probably going to take a slightly different approach and slow the game down a bit more. Troy will still run and gun but against defensive minded teams last year, they flat out were awful. As an Illinois fan, I do not touch Illinois games. Throw out the Illinois/Loyola game. I do think Illinois will struggle mightily this year. Anytime you bring in a PG who you expect to be a leader from a Missouri Valley school, you’re going to struggle in the B-10. Missouri State comes into the season with not so high expectations with a new coach (Lusk – came over from Purdue), yet they return the best player in the conference in Weems, and have a decent core around him. They did lost four starters, and I don’t have all that high expectations (probably mid MVC). It looks like thus far they are getting up and down, a polar opposite of teams in the past. On the defensive side of the ball, they don’t really drop off all that much I don’t think. They open up with Nevada here, who in all likelihood is a team that should contend for a WAC title. They have all of the pieces in place, and Carter likes his chances with “this” team, which, will be the first he puts out there with all of his recruits. They were the youngest team in terms of experience last year, and that won’t be the case this year. They don’t lose a single person, and they should have the player of the year in the conference in Burton. This is generally a team that just doesn’t lose at home, and I expect that to pick up to that standard this year again. They put together a nice stretch mid-season last year, and then faltered down the stretch due to that inexperience and at that time, I immediately tabbed them to contend for this year. I think they’ll be solid, and they’ll get out and go as well. They played and lost to Missouri State on the road a few years back by just 2 points, so a few players will remember that and a little revenge here. But more importantly, assuming Lusk does want to get up and down, this game will be played at a much faster pace, and the team with experience will have a nice edge at home here. This is probably the game I’m most interested in on this day. Not necessarily from a betting perspective, but more so learning how Missouri State and Nevada have progressed in just a few months (Projection: Nevada -7). No interest in Oregon travelling east to face a good Vanderbilt squad, and/or how they rebound from injuries last season and horrible PG play. Loyola Marymount was beaten by UCLA 75-44 a few years ago on the road, no interest. Cal State Northridge might have 1 or 2 victories entering conference play, and they will be against teams off the map. Illinois State travels to Fresno State in the battle of two of the worst offenses from last season game. Neither team had an identity last year, and I’m not sure either team has one this year. ISU has gone big, focusing on the post presence within the offense and has little to no guard play. And the even more shocking part of that is the scrimmage that I attended a few days ago, they hoisted 49 three pointers. Shocking? Absolutely. What’s even more shocking is that 9 players made a three. That is the best part here. Players get confidence that they can make the shot, so they’re going to keep chucking, and if they keep chucking, this offense is going to be just as bad as last year b/c they don’t have the consistent scorers from the perimeter to do so. Fresno’s sort of in the same boat. They brought in Barnes’ top assistant from Texas, so they’ll take a slightly different approach this year, but they just don’t have any consistent scorers. They closed the year last year playing way faster than what they’re accustomed so might add some value here. Quite a few things point to an under here: travel, new offensive systems, new coaches, and unfamiliarity. Might be the best option for a total here. Russell Turner, former assistant of the GS Warriors and current head coach of UC Irvine for one year, is looking like he is trying to run an NBA style offense with little or no defense, as his team couldn’t defend a lick last season. I would expect the same to hold true in the opener at Cal.

    Clearly this is just a few notes/tidbits on matchups thus far. More to come in the coming days for opening weekend as the games get closer. Still need to look at tourneys/added games.

    GL
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    ...They don’t really return much, and they’ll be young. Another program that should be good in a few years, but opening up at Purdue is no easy task. They’ll struggle to score, probably lucky if they hit 60 here, unless Purdue chooses to run. Dartmouth/Rutgers Ivy throw out. UL Monroe bottom 10 in all of basketball. One of the worst offensive and defensive teams in the country last year, and lost some important seniors. Can’t really see how they get any better. They won 7 games last year, and four of them were schools I’ve never heard of. They return the Brown kid, who should have a really good year, but that’s more of a product of taking a ton of shot attempts rather than being great. More shots = more points, and he’ll hoist it up quite a bit. Towson/Kansas no thank you. Tulsa gets a chance to open the season in a pretty good scenario: revenge on Arkansas Little Rock. The game last year, Tulsa took care of business early and led by 15. Then Arky LR came back and led by 11 late, then Tulsa makes a run late and falls short. It ended up being a bad early season loss for Tulsa last year, but it also came in a lookahead position as they had Oklahoma State the game after that. As with every year, Tulsa has a pretty good athletic squad. Also, as with every year, Wojcik doesn’t really make any sense in terms of how he uses his talent. Some games they’ll run, some games they’ll slow the pace, and I’ve tried hours and hours upon trying to determine when he does and when he doesn’t and I just can’t come up with an answer. I think they’re definitely upper tier C-USA but, until I see a consistent pattern of “yes – we are athletic, let’s run” then I’m not sold and can’t really do much with them. They got a really, really favorable schedule for the conference season, so that’s why I got them in that upper tier. Arkansas LR, eh, Sun Belt is a mess this year and pretty even. They lose some nice talent, but return some nice talent as well and Shield’s system seems to fit kids to step right in year after year. I really don’t see any dropoff for them, but I don’t see them getting a lucky run and winning four consecutive days to get in the tourney either. Revenge is the theme here to open the season, Tulsa should be ready to go. Arky LR hasn’t got out of the 60’s on Tulsa in recent years, think they’re lucky to hit that this year (Projected: Tulsa -16). Haven’t had a feel on St. Joseph’s in what seems like forever, so throw them and WKU out. Cornell – Ivy, thrown out. Wright State and Ohio State – don’t really like investing in B-10 schools early in season. BYU and Utah State should be a decent game to watch, aside from a guy named Jimmer not being on the court. It’s probably a good idea to watch what these schools can do, also noting Utah State with revenge. It’s too bad that Pat Knight is out as head coach at Texas Tech or we could have seen a game more than likely in the 200+ range with Troy and Texas Tech. Billy Gillispe is probably going to take a slightly different approach and slow the game down a bit more. Troy will still run and gun but against defensive minded teams last year, they flat out were awful. As an Illinois fan, I do not touch Illinois games. Throw out the Illinois/Loyola game. I do think Illinois will struggle mightily this year. Anytime you bring in a PG who you expect to be a leader from a Missouri Valley school, you’re going to struggle in the B-10. Missouri State comes into the season with not so high expectations with a new coach (Lusk – came over from Purdue), yet they return the best player in the conference in Weems, and have a decent core around him. They did lost four starters, and I don’t have all that high expectations (probably mid MVC). It looks like thus far they are getting up and down, a polar opposite of teams in the past. On the defensive side of the ball, they don’t really drop off all that much I don’t think. They open up with Nevada here, who in all likelihood is a team that should contend for a WAC title. They have all of the pieces in place, and Carter likes his chances with “this” team, which, will be the first he puts out there with all of his recruits. They were the youngest team in terms of experience last year, and that won’t be the case this year. They don’t lose a single person, and they should have the player of the year in the conference in Burton. This is generally a team that just doesn’t lose at home, and I expect that to pick up to that standard this year again. They put together a nice stretch mid-season last year, and then faltered down the stretch due to that inexperience and at that time, I immediately tabbed them to contend for this year. I think they’ll be solid, and they’ll get out and go as well. They played and lost to Missouri State on the road a few years back by just 2 points, so a few players will remember that and a little revenge here. But more importantly, assuming Lusk does want to get up and down, this game will be played at a much faster pace, and the team with experience will have a nice edge at home here. This is probably the game I’m most interested in on this day. Not necessarily from a betting perspective, but more so learning how Missouri State and Nevada have progressed in just a few months (Projection: Nevada -7). No interest in Oregon travelling east to face a good Vanderbilt squad, and/or how they rebound from injuries last season and horrible PG play. Loyola Marymount was beaten by UCLA 75-44 a few years ago on the road, no interest. Cal State Northridge might have 1 or 2 victories entering conference play, and they will be against teams off the map. Illinois State travels to Fresno State in the battle of two of the worst offenses from last season game. Neither team had an identity last year, and I’m not sure either team has one this year. ISU has gone big, focusing on the post presence within the offense and has little to no guard play. And the even more shocking part of that is the scrimmage that I attended a few days ago, they hoisted 49 three pointers. Shocking? Absolutely. What’s even more shocking is that 9 players made a three. That is the best part here. Players get confidence that they can make the shot, so they’re going to keep chucking, and if they keep chucking, this offense is going to be just as bad as last year b/c they don’t have the consistent scorers from the perimeter to do so. Fresno’s sort of in the same boat. They brought in Barnes’ top assistant from Texas, so they’ll take a slightly different approach this year, but they just don’t have any consistent scorers. They closed the year last year playing way faster than what they’re accustomed so might add some value here. Quite a few things point to an under here: travel, new offensive systems, new coaches, and unfamiliarity. Might be the best option for a total here. Russell Turner, former assistant of the GS Warriors and current head coach of UC Irvine for one year, is looking like he is trying to run an NBA style offense with little or no defense, as his team couldn’t defend a lick last season. I would expect the same to hold true in the opener at Cal.

    Clearly this is just a few notes/tidbits on matchups thus far. More to come in the coming days for opening weekend as the games get closer. Still need to look at tourneys/added games.

    GL
     
    GrandMasterAL
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    Posted: Nov. 1, 2011 - 11:50 AM ET #23

    Keep up the good work boss!
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    Keep up the good work boss!
     
    GWarner27
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    Posted: Nov. 1, 2011 - 11:54 AM ET #24

    before you get into a big post, i'm just looking for a guess on the St. John's-W&M line?

    If books are smart they open it at 4, but knowing they'll get a lot of name recognition action on St. John's I think the line is more likely 6 but wouldn't be shocked if it came 8

    thanks in advance
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    before you get into a big post, i'm just looking for a guess on the St. John's-W&M line?

    If books are smart they open it at 4, but knowing they'll get a lot of name recognition action on St. John's I think the line is more likely 6 but wouldn't be shocked if it came 8

    thanks in advance
     
     
    nropp11
    nropp11
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    Posted: Nov. 1, 2011 - 12:21 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

    before you get into a big post, i'm just looking for a guess on the St. John's-W&M line?

    If books are smart they open it at 4, but knowing they'll get a lot of name recognition action on St. John's I think the line is more likely 6 but wouldn't be shocked if it came 8

    thanks in advance

    I think -5, -6 range probably.

    Seven man rotation w/ only one guy with experience (Stith and he was 8th or 9th minutes last year).


    Best is Lavin stays home for the year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

    before you get into a big post, i'm just looking for a guess on the St. John's-W&M line?

    If books are smart they open it at 4, but knowing they'll get a lot of name recognition action on St. John's I think the line is more likely 6 but wouldn't be shocked if it came 8

    thanks in advance

    I think -5, -6 range probably.

    Seven man rotation w/ only one guy with experience (Stith and he was 8th or 9th minutes last year).


    Best is Lavin stays home for the year.
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