I again want to get this out here early so that plenty of people have a chance to monitor this game and decide if they want to make a play. Previously I indicated that South Dakota State would be able to pull away from Nevada due to their perimeter game and Nevada's lack of perimeter defense. Also, that part of Nevada's downfall would be the fact they will try to run South Dakota State out of the building and that South Dakota State will be able to run with them and force Nevada to turn the ball over a bunch too. That indeed is what happend on Tuesday. Frankly, if South Dakota State would have shot the way I full expected it would have been a 25 to 30 point blowout instead of 17. So this team is completely legit IMHO. I think they can not only win the Summit league but perhaps win a game in the big dance. We shall see.
Anyway on to Saturday's game. The line hasn't been released yet but if I had to guess I would put it at SDSU -8 to -10.5. The real question is does the line makers start giving SDSU credit at home and inflate the line a little. I cannot honestly answer that question.
Historically speaking NDSU and SDSU are bitter rivals. Not to the level that USD (South Dakota) and SDSU (South Dakota State) but rivals none the less. We all know that in rival games you tend to get both teams best efforts. Last February NDSU came into Frost Area (home of the Jackrabbits) and pushed SDSU around to win 90-85 in OT. It was a very exciting game that went back and forth in which neither team had more than an eight point lead at any point in the game. However, this NDSU team has improved as has this SDSU team. So you really cannot take anything from that game to spill over this year other than the fact like I said you will get both teams best efforts.
Style of play for NDSU and SDSU is quite similar. Both have the tendency to dial it up from long range. Both have great shooters that can hit from long range and keep teams in games. I have not personally seen NDSU play all year but I have followed them via the computer. SDSU have a legitimate six to seven people that fit this discription including the entire starting lineup. They both have a good inside/outside game.
Therefore, since this is a bitter rival, both can score, both have similar styles of play, and both will give their best efforts this boils down to one thing... who can play better defense! NDSU has been a road covering machine other than barely missing the cover at Minnesota. If anyone watched that game you would know MIN went on a 10-0 run to finish out the 2H so could have easily covered and not much you can do about a team getting hot. South Dakota State they have covered the one lined home game this season so hard to say. NDSU shot 45% and held Oregon to 42% from behind the arch. NDSU shot 43% and held Denver to 29% from behind the arch. NDSU shot 38% but Minnesota hit 47% from behind the arch. Finally, NDSU shot 27% and held Wisc-Green Bay to 20% from behind the arch. All in all outside of Minnesota getting hot down the stretch they have shot better in the perimeter and held their opponent on the perimeter every game this year.
Therefore, if I can get at least 10 I will be playing NDSU. If the line is smaller I honestly don't know. The total I would put around 135. BOL!
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