Posted:
#201
| Win | 1/30/11 12:00pm College Basketball 850 Loyola Maryland 1st Half +2½ -110* vs Iona |
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NCAAB line move system
Posted:
#204
Quote Originally Posted by Charalampo:
MASSACHUSETTS -1 now from +1 before few minutes , now i bet Massa or no?
MASSACHUSETTS -1 now from +1 before few minutes , now i bet Massa or no?
You would be better served if you waited until closer to game time as the line has moved back .5 point out of play. I jumped the gun and played it already... lesson learned.
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Posted:
#205
Quote Originally Posted by willb3rd:
You would be better served if you waited until closer to game time as the line has moved back .5 point out of play. I jumped the gun and played it already... lesson learned.
Will- You are fine. The whole point of the system is that the Line makers know more than the guys that are moving the line. Therefore, you have at least a1.5 advantage from the opening line . You are in better shape than the guy who bets now and if you beat the closing line, you will wim more than you lose overall!
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Posted:
#206
Quote Originally Posted by the-profit:
Will- You are fine. The whole point of the system is that the Line makers know more than the guys that are moving the line. Therefore, you have at least a1.5 advantage from the opening line . You are in better shape than the guy who bets now and if you beat the closing line, you will wim more than you lose overall!
Will- You are fine. The whole point of the system is that the Line makers know more than the guys that are moving the line. Therefore, you have at least a1.5 advantage from the opening line . You are in better shape than the guy who bets now and if you beat the closing line, you will wim more than you lose overall!
Oh Ok.. sounds good. I went with ML but point taken.
Thanks profit
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Posted:
#211
I don't think this is us betting against Vegas who is increasing the line in an attempt to trap us into thinking it is a steam play or smart money that is moving the line up. The line is moving up because the Public likes favorites and if there is just too much Public money coming in on the favs, then they have to move the line up to attract money on the dog. That's where we come in and say "Thank you very much for the extra 1.5 to 2 points!"
So we are in effect looking for overinflated lines on favorites. Now sometimes it will be sharp money that drives it up, in which case we could be in trouble, but at least we are still getting a couple extra points.
Now, if a line goes down, it might not be the Square Public driving it down as they like favs. More often, when a fav is bet down, it is sharper money. So it is for that reason that we might think twice about playing the favs. But we are still getting some value in the extra 1.5 to 2 points.
In the long run, it's all about getting value. It might not work on this game or that game, but over the course of many games, we will win a few just because of the extra points and that can be a profitable system.
GL
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