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NCAAB line move system

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Posted: #1

Did well with this last year...

I play AGAINST the line move...but the # has to OPEN at 6 or less.

Tonight....APP ST opened at -5.5.....now they are -7.

My play is

ELON +7 

.......goes at 7:00 ET

GL2all

jw11

 
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Posted: #2

Forgot to add....This system works better in Conference play...I have been tracking them for a week or so...and will begin the real thing tonight.

Also, I don't mess with games with 'injuries'....and if something seems fishy , I'll stay away.

Note :This system won more last year when taking the dog, but was also profitable taking the Fav.If that trend continues this year, I will saty away from laying points. I will give it a couple weeks and adjust accordingly.

I won't be posting daily...just wanted to let some of you good people know about my system.

Good luck.

jw11

 

 
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Posted: #4
I'M GETTING ON THIS WAGON AND HOPEFULLY IT'S GOING OUR WAY.  GL
 
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Posted: #5
 
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Posted: #6
Tough one point loss on Elon.

So, it's on if it opens at 6 or less.

What else?

How much of aline move is required?

Only the dog?

What % does it hit at?

Does a home team hit better than the road team?

Thanks!

GL
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

Tough one point loss on Elon.

THAT IS VERY COMMON IN THIS SYSTEM...DON'T KNOW WHY, BUT THE LOSSES ARE USUALLY HEARTBREAKERS ...WHICH OF COURSE IS A GOOD THING. 

So, it's on if it opens at 6 or less.YES

What else?

I USUALLY WAIT UNTIL 6:00 ET BEFORE I PULL THE TRIGGER....

How much of aline move is required?

AT LEAST 1.5 POINTS LINE MOVE (NO TOTALS OBVIOUSLY).

Only the dog?

DOGS WORKED BEST LAST YEAR, BUT IT WORKS WITH FAV'S ALSO...IF YOU WANT TO LIMIT YOUR PLAYS, JUST GO WITH THE DOGS...AND AS I SAID EARLIER, I WILL WATCH THIS FOR TWO WEEKS AND THEN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

What % does it hit at?

NO SCIENTIFIC STUDY(that i know of) BUT DID VERY WELL WITH IT LAST YEAR .AN AQUIANTENCE  THAT SHOWED ME THE SYSTEM HAS MADE MONEY AT LEAST TWO STRAIGHT YEARS...I WAS SKEPTICAL TWO YEARS BACK BUT HOPPED IN  LAST YEAR..

HIS THEORIES ...(1) YOU ARE USUALLY GOING AGAINST THE PUBLIC AND (2) THE LINEMAKERS THAT SET THE #  KNOW ALOT MORE THAN THE ORDINARY BETTOR ...IN OTHER WORDS, THE OPENING # IS SET BY A GROUP OF PROFESSIONALS THAT KNOW MOST OF THE TEAMS INSIDE AND OUT...AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC (USUALLY) MOVE THE LINES. 

I'M NOT TOO SURE ABOUT ALL THAT, BUT I'M SURE I MADE SOME CABBAGE LAST YEAR

Does a home team hit better than the road team?

NO...NOT IN MY OPINION.

Thanks!

YOU''RE WELCOME.

GL

GL2us

 

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by BryGuy247:

We shall see Bry.

Gl2u

jw11

 
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Posted: #9

Note: this system only lasts  7 or 8 weeks...don't recall how far into the tourney we went last year, but I'll call my friend and ask him.

jw11

 
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Posted: #10

Tuesday 01-18-11

TENN +5 @ Ga

ILLINI-3.5 vs Mich St

 

We'll see what happens...

 

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by jw11:

Tuesday 01-18-11

TENN +5 @ Ga

ILLINI-3.5 vs Mich St

 

The system gave me a couple easy winners yesterday.

TENN wins straight up (getting 5) @ Georgia ....and the ILLINI rolled over Mich St.

I hated both of the plays, so I figured there was a great shot to win them both.LOL..

Shoulda parlayed them too, but I usually don't play parlays.

System so far...2 easy wins and 1 tough loss.

 

 
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Posted: #12

Have some cool stats to help you out bro ..

In games where the favorite has gone down 1 1/2 points . Example -15 to -13 1/2 the Dog has come in 89 times and the favorite 77 . I'm not sure if that stat is from the very first game of the season but that's enough of the back test needed .

I will let you know asap as far as the opposite .. When line moves up more than 1 1/2 points ..

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Have some cool stats to help you out bro ..

In games where the favorite has gone down 1 1/2 points . Example -15 to -13 1/2 the Dog has come in 89 times and the favorite 77 . I'm not sure if that stat is from the very first game of the season but that's enough of the back test needed .

I will let you know asap as far as the opposite .. When line moves up more than 1 1/2 points ..

By the way that is not .. I repeat .. Not all games that start off -6 or less ..
 
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Posted: #14
On lines which have moved up 1 1/2 points the favorite has covered 77 times dog 70 times .. Probably realize this really don't help you but thought I would throw these stats at you anyway ..
 
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Posted: #15

Thanks Illini brother...

One other thing I need to know...

Is that Katy Perry's booty in your avitar ?

 

 

 
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Posted: #16

It would be helpful if ya got the stats for games that open at 6 or less...Not really interested in the stats you thru out there with the big #'s.

But thanks for the effort my man.

 

 

 
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Posted: #17

Watching your plays

Nice work so far... How bout tonight's action?

 

 
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Posted: #18
Really not sure who's nice behind that is , but I love it ..
 
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Posted: #19
Certainly is some "upside" to that behind!
 
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Posted: #20
Not nagging but didn't Illinois have NO movement to very little...maybe half a point?  Just didn't see it but good win
 
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Posted: #21
Funny...I kinda use the same techniques you do...I sometimes but pts...I had Elon aswell that day but bought 2 pts making it +9  and covered...I'm gonna try and collaborate with your picks...I had Illinois yesterday aswell but for a different reason... Let's make some money
 
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Posted: #22
St. Joe's and Fordham look like plays.

Need another .5 move for Akron, Bowling Green, St. Bonny and Florida State?
 
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Posted: #23
Sounds pretty good, but I'm not sold that line moves with public money. Sometimes that is smart money moving the line, especially late.

The real value might just be that you're getting 1.5+ points from the opener. But the opener may have been very wrong and smart money moved it very quickly.

If line movement was always the result of public money and not smart money, then we'd have something.

Maybe a line that moves after the initial "smart" move is public money and if it goes back to the opening or initial "smart" move line it is smart money late.

I once ran a lot of stats on line movement - early, middle and late and I could not find a good % system to play. That was NFL.

GL
 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by badself:

Not nagging but didn't Illinois have NO movement to very little...maybe half a point?  Just didn't see it but good win

 

actually the ILLINI game opened at 5 on scoresandodds and at the momemnt i posted it here (and played it) it was at 3.5...must not have been for too long....

But...if you check scoresandodds right now, you;ll see the 3.5.

GL2us brother

 
 
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