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NCAAB line move system

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CBARocks

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 48

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 10:49 AM ET #601

[Quote: Originally Posted by jw11]

CBA

l'm interested in your theory...but not quite sure I inderstand 100%.

Can you explain with a little more detail please sir ?

Thanks

jw11On the home page there is a drop down box under consensus bring it down to second one click on top 10% play the highest rated road underdog. Hit team experts play the highest rated road underdog. Back tested it does't seem to hit home underdogs. I said 6:30 because you want it close to game time to get enough data in it. Actually have been using this method since early January at on point it was 32-8. Pretty good.

CBARocks

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 48

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 10:50 AM ET #602

reply to jw11On the home page there is a drop down box under consensus bring it down to second one click on top 10% play the highest rated road underdog. Hit team experts play the highest rated road underdog. Back tested it does't seem to hit home underdogs. I said 6:30 because you want it close to game time to get enough data in it. Actually have been using this method since early January at on point it was 32-8. Pretty good.

savoieboy

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 96

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 4:51 PM ET #603

CBARocks

So your plays today for that system would be Dartmouth and CSFUL? I just checked it out and wanted to make sure I was correct.

Thanks Sounds Good

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 5:24 AM ET #604

Quote Originally Posted by CBARocks:

reply to jw11On the home page there is a drop down box under consensus bring it down to second one click on top 10% play the highest rated road underdog. Hit team experts play the highest rated road underdog. Back tested it does't seem to hit home underdogs. I said 6:30 because you want it close to game time to get enough data in it. Actually have been using this method since early January at on point it was 32-8. Pretty good.

So today the pick so far .. long way to go is OSU ?? Correct ??

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 5:29 AM ET #605

Am I correct then yesterday was a loser with Cal-State Full ??

CBARocks

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 48

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 10:05 AM ET #606

[Quote: Originally Posted by savoieboy]

CBARocks

So your plays today for that system would be Dartmouth and CSFUL? I just checked it out and wanted to make sure I was correct.

Thanks Sounds Good

yes

savoieboy

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 96

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 11:13 AM ET #607

CBA I see your cutoff is 6:30 for week day games. Would your cutoff be 1/2 hour before first tip on weekends.

Thanks again

dmheal

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 54

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 11:13 AM ET #608

Here's the top 10 consensus. I don't see Dartmouth or CS Fullerton anywhere. The way I read your system the top play would be Ohio St +1 @ 70.51%, followed by Ga Tech +21 @ 70.45%

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Odds

4:00 PM St. Joseph's +15.5 21 63.64% Temple -15.5 12 36.36% View

7:45 PM Georgia Tech +21 31 70.45% Duke -21 13 29.55% View

1:00 PM Ohio St. +1 55 70.51% Purdue -1 23 29.49% View

Here are the Team Experts picks. Would a Pk qualify? If not, Clemson & Ohio St are highest %age picks, correct?

3:30 PM Clemson +1 7 63.64% Miami - Florida -1 4 36.36%

1:00 PM Ohio St. +1 9 69.23% Purdue -1 4 30.77%

10:00 PM UCLA PK 9 81.82% California PK 2 18.18%

Thanks,

Dean

jakeandba

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 133

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 11:25 AM ET #609

ran some additional numbers regarding this system. Found the following

Jan 2010

SU=-80

ATS=+84 hit at a 61% clip

Feb 2010

SU=+90

ATS=+28

Jan 2009

SU=-143

ATS=-99

These were compiled with no games taking into consideration games that started at a pickem and then moved to at least a 1.5 line.

Excluded any Ivy League games as well as Horizon league. There was no filter for any inj players.These are full games since no line for first half games. Each wager was based on $10.00

savoieboy

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 96

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 11:48 AM ET #610

We were talking about yesterday.

lantz2

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 75

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 12:15 PM ET #611

If Ohio St. would go to a pick, Is it a no play?

CBARocks

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 48

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 12:52 PM ET #612

[Quote: Originally Posted by dmheal]

Here's the top 10 consensus. I don't see Dartmouth or CS Fullerton anywhere. The way I read your system the top play would be Ohio St +1 @ 70.51%, followed by Ga Tech +21 @ 70.45%

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Odds

4:00 PM St. Joseph's +15.5 21 63.64% Temple -15.5 12 36.36% View

7:45 PM Georgia Tech +21 31 70.45% Duke -21 13 29.55% View

1:00 PM Ohio St. +1 55 70.51% Purdue -1 23 29.49% View

Here are the Team Experts picks. Would a Pk qualify? If not, Clemson & Ohio St are highest %age picks, correct?

3:30 PM Clemson +1 7 63.64% Miami - Florida -1 4 36.36%

1:00 PM Ohio St. +1 9 69.23% Purdue -1 4 30.77%

10:00 PM UCLA PK 9 81.82% California PK 2 18.18%

Thanks,

Dean

Actually it was Notre Dame (10%) and Cal St Fullerton (Team Experts) if you bring up Feb 19 now.

CBARocks

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 48

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 12:56 PM ET #613

[Quote: Originally Posted by savoieboy]

CBA I see your cutoff is 6:30 for week day games. Would your cutoff be 1/2 hour before first tip on weekends.

Thanks again

Saturdays are tough because teams play throughout the day. I think you would have to look close to game time and make a decision if the rating was high enough to make sense.

LexingtonTim

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 614

Posted: Feb. 22, 2011 - 11:49 AM ET #614

JW11: Minnesota opened at -4 and they are down to -3. Are we hoping they move again, down to -2.5? Playing against the line move would be to take Minnesota. Right? Does this fit your system?

Barnstorm

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 4719

Posted: Feb. 23, 2011 - 11:55 AM ET #615

Quote Originally Posted by LexingtonTim:

JW11: Minnesota opened at -4 and they are down to -3. Are we hoping they move again, down to -2.5? Playing against the line move would be to take Minnesota. Right? Does this fit your system?

Dogs only.

Originally, we played favs, but they did not win at a good %, so switched to dogs only.

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