Posted:
#226
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:
I don't think this is us betting against Vegas who is increasing the line in an attempt to trap us into thinking it is a steam play or smart money that is moving the line up. The line is moving up because the Public likes favorites and if there is just too much Public money coming in on the favs, then they have to move the line up to attract money on the dog. That's where we come in and say "Thank you very much for the extra 1.5 to 2 points!"
I don't think this is us betting against Vegas who is increasing the line in an attempt to trap us into thinking it is a steam play or smart money that is moving the line up. The line is moving up because the Public likes favorites and if there is just too much Public money coming in on the favs, then they have to move the line up to attract money on the dog. That's where we come in and say "Thank you very much for the extra 1.5 to 2 points!"
So we are in effect looking for overinflated lines on favorites. Now sometimes it will be sharp money that drives it up, in which case we could be in trouble, but at least we are still getting a couple extra points.
Now, if a line goes down, it might not be the Square Public driving it down as they like favs. More often, when a fav is bet down, it is sharper money. So it is for that reason that we might think twice about playing the favs. But we are still getting some value in the extra 1.5 to 2 points.
In the long run, it's all about getting value. It might not work on this game or that game, but over the course of many games, we will win a few just because of the extra points and that can be a profitable system.
GL
Very,very good post Barnstorm !
jw11
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