Posted:
#176
jw11... I have an easy fix to your fav plays...friend and PM..
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NCAAB line move system
Posted:
#179
Quote Originally Posted by Marketmaker:
I myself have used similar strategies as this one....but you gotta be careful of reverse line movement which creates the trap you're referring to.
Looking at ArkSt v ArkLR which opened at -4.5 now down to -3, when all consensus picks from the public favor ArkLR around 60%.....which would make common sense for those favoring ArkLR to even grow with a smaller line right?? The total jumped from 134 to 143 and line dropped 1.5 points....which makes me believe a lot of heavy smart $ came in on the over and ArkST late in the day, otherwise why would Vegas move the line against the majority?
I say go against the book and take ArkSt +3. 
Still trying to understand your logic......
You took UNC-Green correctly +7 because the line moved the correct way....65% of consensus picks were on Samford so the line should have moved up, and like usual, the public was wrong and UNC-Green won outright.
Now the Ark LR line moves the opposite way it should and you're playing them...
????? Please help me out and something I may be missing....
MM
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Posted:
#180
Quote Originally Posted by Marketmaker:
jw11's system does not care what side the public is on, but he did say dogs cover more than favorites in this system.
Still trying to understand your logic......
You took UNC-Green correctly +7 because the line moved the correct way....65% of consensus picks were on Samford so the line should have moved up, and like usual, the public was wrong and UNC-Green won outright.
Now the Ark LR line moves the opposite way it should and you're playing them...
????? Please help me out and something I may be missing....
MM
0
Posted:
#182
Quote Originally Posted by jw11:
I think I'll stay away from
THE SUMMIT league
and
THE IVY league Will.
gotta draw the line somewhere or I'll be playin High School soon.
LOL.
But by all means...if ya feel it....
GL
BTW ...I appreciate the post
jw11
you've made a good point. frankly, i was just trying to get a feel for your system and hoped that you would let me know if i was on the wrong track or not. appreciate you sharing with us.
will
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Posted:
#189
Quote Originally Posted by Marketmaker:
Still trying to understand your logic......
You took UNC-Green correctly +7 because the line moved the correct way....65% of consensus picks were on Samford so the line should have moved up, and like usual, the public was wrong and UNC-Green won outright.
Now the Ark LR line moves the opposite way it should and you're playing them...
????? Please help me out and something I may be missing....
MM
This system has NOTHING to do with consensus Marketplace.
Nothing at all.
You can go back to the first page of the thread...it's self explanatory.
GL2u
jw11
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Posted:
#190
Quote Originally Posted by willb3rd:
you've made a good point. frankly, i was just trying to get a feel for your system and hoped that you would let me know if i was on the wrong track or not. appreciate you sharing with us.
will
you WOULD HAVE had the correct side to the system Will.
jw11
0
Posted:
#191
The system gives me a 4-3 day.
.....made a few bucks.
3 of the 4 wins were puppies that WON OUTRIGHT...so that seems to be the best feature of this system as 80%+ of our winners so far would have also been M/L wins.
Do the math on that.
FYI...the 1st Half plays were also 4-3.
Louisville lost the 1st Half...but covered game...
Charleston won 1st Half.....but lost game.
So if you played 1st halfs AND full games you went 8-6
Both favorites lost....so my fear of playing the fav's continues...and they just might get shitcanned in the new-improved system.
todays recap...
4 wins...
LOUISVILLE +5 .........won the game outright (by 1 in 2OT)
NC GREENS +6.5........won the game outright (by 19)
SANTA CLARA +2.......won the game outright (by 7)
CAL IRVINE +4............lost game by 1pt
3 losses...
CHARLESTON -2..........lost by 11
ARK LIL ROCK -3.........lost by 11
SAN FRAN +1.5...........lost by 6
Thanks much for all the support as we stay patient and learn together !!!
0
Posted:
#192
System record updated....16-9
13 of the 16 wins have an underdog winning outright.
SUMMARY as of 01-29-11
16 wins............
TENN +5...................won the game outright
ILLINI-3.5..................won by 10
ARK LR +3.5..............won the game outright
ST PETE pick............won
ST BON +4................won the game outright
FURMAN +6...............won the game outright
RIDER +1.5................won the game outright
RICHM +3..................won the game outright
W.CAROLINA +3.5.....won the game outright by 24
SAMFORD +2.5......,...won the game outright
SAN FRAN +5.5..........won the game outright
WRIGHT ST +4...........won the game outright
LOUISVILLE +5 .........won the game outright by 1 in OT
NC GREENS +6.5........won the game outright by 19
SANTA CLARA +2.......won the game outright by 7
CAL IRVINE +4............lost game by 1pt
9 losses...................
ELON +7...................lost by 8
FORDH +6.................lost by 12 (had 2H lead)
LOY MRMNT +1.5......lost by 2
BALL ST -1.5.............lost by 2
E.CAR. +3..................lost by 8
S.E MO.ST +2.5........ lost by 9
CHARLESTON -2........lost by 11
ARK LIL ROCK -3.......lost by 11
SAN FRAN +1.5..........lost by 6
I believe the 1H record would be 18-7...if it's not 18-7, it's 19-6
.............................................................
So...... I have some thinking to do before Monday.
I will definitely tweek the system, but not too much.
.......................................................
*** Check this out >>> I just noticed CAL IRVINE was the first system win (out of 16 wins) that covered for us BUT DIDN"T WIN THE GAME.
That...is unreal. Our other 15 wins won outright.Shocking.
If you are looking to build YOUR OWN SYSTEM...take a good look at the chart above .
Print it out...and study it. Really.
In the many years that I've been at this game, I've learned that you can make more money by studying charts like this than by studying player stats, team stats,concensus' plays,and trying to figure out who the sharpies are on.
Let's face it ...the linemakers know their stuff. They know more than anyone.
And....this is a fact...they play mind games with Joe Public by moving numbers in opposite directions to fool the public into following false line moves....and making it look like Mr Sharp is on this or that game.
I've played the "consensus / line move" system before and it works...sometimes.And sometimes it doesn't. If it always worked, then everyone would do it and Vegas would be broke.
Is this system perfect ?
No.
No system is perfect. This system may be on a good 2 or 3 or 4 year run ....and turn to shit tomorrow.
But...so far so good.
That's all one can ask for.
See you in the AM.
jw11
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