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    All Forums | College Basketball

    NCAAB line move system

    «First Previous 789 ... 232425 Next Last»
    SkoalPride22
    the-profit
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    jw11
    shazam1609
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    «First Previous 789 ... 232425 Next Last»
     
    SkoalPride22
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 3:37 PM ET #151

    Charleston absolutely collapsed.
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    Charleston absolutely collapsed.
     
    the-profit
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 3:46 PM ET #152

    Charleston crapping the bed
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    Charleston crapping the bed
     
    SkoalPride22
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 3:48 PM ET #153

    Down 8 under 4 minutes, sweet.
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    Down 8 under 4 minutes, sweet.
     
    Upside
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 3:48 PM ET #154

    Quote Originally Posted by willb3rd:

    I believe UNC Greensboro is a play now. Went from +5 to +6.5.
    To me that game is moving up from the triple Ot game Green played at Chatt 2 nights ago . Still may play em ..
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    Quote Originally Posted by willb3rd:

    I believe UNC Greensboro is a play now. Went from +5 to +6.5.
    To me that game is moving up from the triple Ot game Green played at Chatt 2 nights ago . Still may play em ..
     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 4:11 PM ET #155

    5:15 Et

    #681 NC Greensboro +6.5 vs Samford 

    IS a play

    (I bought to 7 but will apply +6.5 to system record)

    ***I dont think Cof Charlseton covered

    jw11

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    5:15 Et

    #681 NC Greensboro +6.5 vs Samford 

    IS a play

    (I bought to 7 but will apply +6.5 to system record)

    ***I dont think Cof Charlseton covered

    jw11

     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 4:16 PM ET #156

    Charlston covered easily at the half...but collapsed in 2H.

    FYI....I believe this system would have a record of 16-4 or maybe even 17-3 if  it were a  1st HALF only system.

    FYI.

    jw11

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    Charlston covered easily at the half...but collapsed in 2H.

    FYI....I believe this system would have a record of 16-4 or maybe even 17-3 if  it were a  1st HALF only system.

    FYI.

    jw11

     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 4:20 PM ET #157

    Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:


    Easiest way to back test it is on https://www.scoresandodds.com/. There is a calendar on the right that you can just click on to go back in time.

    I'll try to do some more and see if the NBA works.

    I also broke it down so we could see which side does the best - Home Favs, Visitor Dogs, Home Dogs, Visitor Favs.

    I may also look at Totals to see if Line Movement can pick the over/under. Say a Total moves 2.5 or 3 points from the open. If it goes up 3 points, play the under. If it goes down 3 points play the over. So far, this seems to be 50/50.

    cool...thanks Barn

    Let's keep the attitude positive here guys...a long way to go today.

    jw11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:


    Easiest way to back test it is on https://www.scoresandodds.com/. There is a calendar on the right that you can just click on to go back in time.

    I'll try to do some more and see if the NBA works.

    I also broke it down so we could see which side does the best - Home Favs, Visitor Dogs, Home Dogs, Visitor Favs.

    I may also look at Totals to see if Line Movement can pick the over/under. Say a Total moves 2.5 or 3 points from the open. If it goes up 3 points, play the under. If it goes down 3 points play the over. So far, this seems to be 50/50.

    cool...thanks Barn

    Let's keep the attitude positive here guys...a long way to go today.

    jw11

     
    shazam1609
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 4:26 PM ET #158

    Hey JW,

    Love the system... Easy to understand and implement....

    When I play, I play 1st 1/2, FG and ML if it's the dog..... Caught 2 out of 3 on the louisville game... Thanks for bringing this system in light
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    Hey JW,

    Love the system... Easy to understand and implement....

    When I play, I play 1st 1/2, FG and ML if it's the dog..... Caught 2 out of 3 on the louisville game... Thanks for bringing this system in light
     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 4:30 PM ET #159

    missed Delaware vs JMad...the # changed @ 3:55...game went at 4:00.

    Sometimes that happens...oh well.

    (I've never bet on Delaware before)

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    missed Delaware vs JMad...the # changed @ 3:55...game went at 4:00.

    Sometimes that happens...oh well.

    (I've never bet on Delaware before)

     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 4:34 PM ET #160

    Quote Originally Posted by shazam1609:

    Hey JW,

    Love the system... Easy to understand and implement....

    When I play, I play 1st 1/2, FG and ML if it's the dog..... Caught 2 out of 3 on the louisville game... Thanks for bringing this system in light

    I was thinking of doing the same Shazam.....3 seperate bets.

    Like I said at the beginning of this thread, I will re-evaluate the system after 2 weeks....and that will be after tomorrows games.

    I jave a pretty good idea of what I will do, but have to think on it a lil more.

    GL2us bud

    jw11

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by shazam1609:

    Hey JW,

    Love the system... Easy to understand and implement....

    When I play, I play 1st 1/2, FG and ML if it's the dog..... Caught 2 out of 3 on the louisville game... Thanks for bringing this system in light

    I was thinking of doing the same Shazam.....3 seperate bets.

    Like I said at the beginning of this thread, I will re-evaluate the system after 2 weeks....and that will be after tomorrows games.

    I jave a pretty good idea of what I will do, but have to think on it a lil more.

    GL2us bud

    jw11

     

     
    the-profit
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 4:46 PM ET #161

    At 5 dimes West Virginia from +3 to +4.5
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    At 5 dimes West Virginia from +3 to +4.5
     
    shazam1609
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 4:50 PM ET #162

    Quote Originally Posted by the-profit:

    At 5 dimes West Virginia from +3 to +4.5

    Opening Line was 3.5... so doesn't fit the system
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    Quote Originally Posted by the-profit:

    At 5 dimes West Virginia from +3 to +4.5

    Opening Line was 3.5... so doesn't fit the system
     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 5:00 PM ET #163

    GUYS>>>>NO PLAY ALERT

    UTAH +1.5 vs COL ST would be a play BUT

    here is an injury to UTAH's 32 scorer and rebounder.

    I see OUT INDEF here and questionable elsewhere.

    NO PLAY

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    GUYS>>>>NO PLAY ALERT

    UTAH +1.5 vs COL ST would be a play BUT

    here is an injury to UTAH's 32 scorer and rebounder.

    I see OUT INDEF here and questionable elsewhere.

    NO PLAY

     
    the-profit
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 5:08 PM ET #164

    jw=what line are you using for openinf line?
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    jw=what line are you using for openinf line?
     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 5:29 PM ET #165

    scoresandodds

    Guys I will be heading out to the racetrack tonight....

    My last post will be about 6:50 ET

    FYI

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    scoresandodds

    Guys I will be heading out to the racetrack tonight....

    My last post will be about 6:50 ET

    FYI

     
    willb3rd
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 5:33 PM ET #166

    Arkansas LR?
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    Arkansas LR?
     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 5:43 PM ET #167

    8:00 ET

    #636 ARKANSAS Lil Rock -3 vs Ark St

    IS a play

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    8:00 ET

    #636 ARKANSAS Lil Rock -3 vs Ark St

    IS a play

     
    willb3rd
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 6:22 PM ET #168

    oral roberts just fell into the system
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    oral roberts just fell into the system
     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 6:28 PM ET #169

    Quote Originally Posted by jw11:

    5:15 Et

    #681 NC Greensboro +6.5 vs Samford 

     

    Greensboro up 20 at the half....I'm really learning something here.

    1st H plays would be 18-3 or 17-4......90% winners

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    Quote Originally Posted by jw11:

    5:15 Et

    #681 NC Greensboro +6.5 vs Samford 

     

    Greensboro up 20 at the half....I'm really learning something here.

    1st H plays would be 18-3 or 17-4......90% winners

     
    the-profit
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 6:30 PM ET #170

    Kansas St from +11.5 to +10
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    Kansas St from +11.5 to +10
     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 6:30 PM ET #171

    I"m almost certain of one change to the system...

    When a favorite fits...which seems to be rarely...I may only play it for the 1stH

     

    thanks for the heads up Will

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    I"m almost certain of one change to the system...

    When a favorite fits...which seems to be rarely...I may only play it for the 1stH

     

    thanks for the heads up Will

     
    the-profit
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 6:33 PM ET #172

    sorry -forgot the start within 6 rule
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    sorry -forgot the start within 6 rule
     
    jw11
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 6:39 PM ET #173

    Quote Originally Posted by willb3rd:

    oral roberts just fell into the system

    I think I'll stay away from

    THE SUMMIT league

    and

    THE IVY league Will.

    gotta draw the line somewhere or I'll be playin High School soon.

    LOL.

    But by all means...if ya feel it....

    GL

    BTW ...I appreciate the post

    jw11

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    Quote Originally Posted by willb3rd:

    oral roberts just fell into the system

    I think I'll stay away from

    THE SUMMIT league

    and

    THE IVY league Will.

    gotta draw the line somewhere or I'll be playin High School soon.

    LOL.

    But by all means...if ya feel it....

    GL

    BTW ...I appreciate the post

    jw11

     
    Marketmaker
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 6:53 PM ET #174

    I myself have used similar strategies as this one....but you gotta be careful of reverse line movement which creates the trap you're referring to.

    Looking at ArkSt v ArkLR which opened at -4.5 now down to -3, when all consensus picks from the public favor ArkLR around 60%.....which would make common sense for those favoring ArkLR to even grow with a smaller line right?? The total jumped from 134 to 143 and line dropped 1.5 points....which makes me believe a lot of heavy smart $ came in on the over and ArkST late in the day, otherwise why would Vegas move the line against the majority? 

    I say go against the book and take ArkSt +3. 

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    I myself have used similar strategies as this one....but you gotta be careful of reverse line movement which creates the trap you're referring to.

    Looking at ArkSt v ArkLR which opened at -4.5 now down to -3, when all consensus picks from the public favor ArkLR around 60%.....which would make common sense for those favoring ArkLR to even grow with a smaller line right?? The total jumped from 134 to 143 and line dropped 1.5 points....which makes me believe a lot of heavy smart $ came in on the over and ArkST late in the day, otherwise why would Vegas move the line against the majority? 

    I say go against the book and take ArkSt +3. 

     
     
    Ag87
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 6:58 PM ET #175

    just played ark LR -2 first half.
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    just played ark LR -2 first half.
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