Posted:
#26
how many dollhairs u got on it?
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MONMOUTH @ IONA: If I lose this Son of a B!tch play and I'm outta here for a long time
Posted:
#28
Scal, your write up is dead on. I actually live 10 minutes away from Monmouth Univ and everything you said is 100% correct. That being said, this should be a super close game up until the end. I'm with you on it, regardless of what the numbers say below that I've found lol. GL man
*Monmouth is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
Iona is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games, and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up win. Iona is also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
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Posted:
#32
0-1 Scal Blind Tails 2017
Indiana was the classic "right side and lose" game. Saturday night public Big 10 matchup. Vegas has built the strip on those...I took the bait. Oh well. 
This I like though....it is a local matchup for you....and the line read is dead on. 15 game win streak and only a slight fav.
So, time to ride again.......Iona +2.
But, win or lose, your current run is a classic example of why "capping"(whatever that is) takes a major backseat to money management and viewing gambling from a business standpoint. Scal's analysis is deep....he knows his shitttt.......but much of the time that just does not matter. We are dealing with random systems, and variance is a mofo.
Winning bets is the name of the game. 
So, lets win one here. BOL to all. 
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Posted:
#35
Good stuff Scal.
I'd rather fade a team on a win streak when the books lay a fishy spread rather than backing a team on a losing streak(IU)
If the books ain't scared of the exposure by this short spread, then we shouldn't be either. I have won a ton of "hard pill to swallow" games this year.
You're on the right track here, and right in your back yard.
Thanks for the write up
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Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by chaloots:
After the 22-0 run Northwestern should have never even sniffed the lead, Nwestern has been struggling to score, I was shocked they didn't roll over and die. I didn't watch the game and probably glad I didn't.
After the 22-0 run Northwestern should have never even sniffed the lead, Nwestern has been struggling to score, I was shocked they didn't roll over and die. I didn't watch the game and probably glad I didn't.
If you watched it, you'd see a guy hitting a 3 quarter court miracle that would make even Steph Curry envious, and then painfully allow the same team that received that dagger heave nonchalantly take every point back and then go up almost by double digits like nothing ever happened in the first half. Not even the Knicks do that.
As I'm watching the game, I'm begging Indy not to come back because I knew they could not cover a spread like 3.5. But of course, not only do they come back they tie it (my ONE saving grace) and a college kid (usually skittish nails the FT to take down every indy backer from here to timbucktoo.What an awful side to take out of 100 Saturday games.
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Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by BIGDTITLE:
I hope you get this one Scal...betting against the best team in women's college bball history and now going against Monmouth.......wow
I hope you get this one Scal...betting against the best team in women's college bball history and now going against Monmouth.......wow
The UConn women's game was a shot with 30 points. Not interested in fading them anymore unless I can get near 50.
This game is completely different obviously. The parity between the two teams is infinitely closer when compared to Temple to UConn.
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by WinstonTheWolf:
Scal, your write up is dead on. I actually live 10 minutes away from Monmouth Univ and everything you said is 100% correct. That being said, this should be a super close game up until the end. I'm with you on it, regardless of what the numbers say below that I've found lol. GL man
Scal, your write up is dead on. I actually live 10 minutes away from Monmouth Univ and everything you said is 100% correct. That being said, this should be a super close game up until the end. I'm with you on it, regardless of what the numbers say below that I've found lol. GL man
*Monmouth is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
Iona is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games, and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up win. Iona is also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
Appreciate it.
Ats numbers perfectly exemplify why I call Iona 'flawed' in the OP. They're not pretty.
Again, if Monmouth can come into this game off a loss, I'm probably taking Monmouth with the same line just to rebound for the tournament. But a 15 game win streak and a line of 2...
I'm really hoping Iona can get a meaningful lead late and King Rice calls off the dogs just to give his players a needed rest from this conference grind.
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Posted:
#40
Quote Originally Posted by ILPRATO:
On the other side again Monmouth playing for an outside shot to make the tourney should they slip up in the conference tournament.
Good luck with your play
On the other side again Monmouth playing for an outside shot to make the tourney should they slip up in the conference tournament.
Good luck with your play
They almost certainly won't make the tournament without a conference tournament win. They were 27-7 last year and didn't make it.
They would have almost the exact same record this year. So it's tournament or bust imo and I have to think King Rice thinks the same way.
They have to win the tournament. Makes this game less meaningful. It means something to Monmouth because it is Iona. And even at that: Iona would LOVE to force Monmouth's hand to make them win the tournament which an Iona win here would leave no doubt in doing. Tips the scales more in favor of Iona motivation a bit.
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Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:
0-1 Scal Blind Tails 2017
Indiana was the classic "right side and lose" game. Saturday night public Big 10 matchup. Vegas has built the strip on those...I took the bait. Oh well.
This I like though....it is a local matchup for you....and the line read is dead on. 15 game win streak and only a slight fav.
So, time to ride again.......Iona +2.
But, win or lose, your current run is a classic example of why "capping"(whatever that is) takes a major backseat to money management and viewing gambling from a business standpoint. Scal's analysis is deep....he knows his shitttt.......but much of the time that just does not matter. We are dealing with random systems, and variance is a mofo.
Winning bets is the name of the game.
So, lets win one here. BOL to all.
It's nice to have 'right side/wrong result' games as a consolation when....you are hitting over 50%. But to have it happen now....................with this record.
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Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Good stuff Scal.
Good stuff Scal.
I'd rather fade a team on a win streak when the books lay a fishy spread rather than backing a team on a losing streak(IU)
If the books ain't scared of the exposure by this short spread, then we shouldn't be either. I have won a ton of "hard pill to swallow" games this year.
You're on the right track here, and right in your back yard.
Thanks for the write up
Appreciate it.Hoping this game doesn't turn into Clemson FSU where FSU stays up all game and Clemson makes a run late with +1 being just not enough.
We need energy and leadership and a pedal to the metal push here.
Which is why in that Indy game I'm wondering how they go down 26-14??? Come ON. Last home game. Crean's last game? Senior night? Let's get it done here Iona. This is what you've waited for all year.
Joe- He ain't here! I loved him though. What a stud. But ironically the line last year was -2 Iona and they won by 3 79-76.
So getting points at home with Iona is pretty massive. I couldn't lay points here. It wouldn't be right.
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Posted:
#45
Win or lose you are chasing with this play. This is a 100% no play. You were on the correct side with Indiana yesterday. That was a fluke. Temple men was the correct. Another fluke. This one makes no sense to me as did the temple women's bet. We all have bad runs where we feel like we can't hit anything. Even I mr 60% once lost 3 games in a row posting on here. Good luck with your play.
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Posted:
#46
I understand why you're 3-9. You're going to back a team that refuses to play defense, that turns the ball over way to much. Constantly gets in foul trouble, only player that really has it usually comes off the bench and constantly has 3 or 4 fouls early in the second half, and loves to make poor decisions with the ball leading to a high number of turnovers most games. Only thing they have going for them is they are streaky shooters and can knock them down some games. Along with the fact that they have got there brains beaten in last game vs Monmouth. Or they have played so pour in recent games they won't be able to play much worse
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Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by syracusejoe:
Win or lose you are chasing with this play. This is a 100% no play. You were on the correct side with Indiana yesterday. That was a fluke. Temple men was the correct. Another fluke. This one makes no sense to me as did the temple women's bet. We all have bad runs where we feel like we can't hit anything. Even I mr 60% once lost 3 games in a row posting on here. Good luck with your play.
Win or lose you are chasing with this play. This is a 100% no play. You were on the correct side with Indiana yesterday. That was a fluke. Temple men was the correct. Another fluke. This one makes no sense to me as did the temple women's bet. We all have bad runs where we feel like we can't hit anything. Even I mr 60% once lost 3 games in a row posting on here. Good luck with your play.
I watch the Maac the entire season to make this one play. All along I had Monmouth coming into this game but this streak and line has certainly changed my tune with everything locked up. I'm not in love with Iona but I was supremely confident with Indy yesterday so maybe confidence is overrated and some agita is necessary (which I have here).
I have to go IONA here based on that and all the above (and would really love a Canisius win at 2PM to get the 2 seed, which readers can wait for if they'd like but I see that outcome affecting the line to 1.5/1 if Canisius wins).
It should be a very tough game to win, I will say that. And Iona must win outright obviously.
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Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by supermanbets:
I understand why you're 3-9. You're going to back a team that refuses to play defense, that turns the ball over way to much. Constantly gets in foul trouble, only player that really has it usually comes off the bench and constantly has 3 or 4 fouls early in the second half, and loves to make poor decisions with the ball leading to a high number of turnovers most games. Only thing they have going for them is they are streaky shooters and can knock them down some games. Along with the fact that they have got there brains beaten in last game vs Monmouth. Or they have played so pour in recent games they won't be able to play much worse
I understand why you're 3-9. You're going to back a team that refuses to play defense, that turns the ball over way to much. Constantly gets in foul trouble, only player that really has it usually comes off the bench and constantly has 3 or 4 fouls early in the second half, and loves to make poor decisions with the ball leading to a high number of turnovers most games. Only thing they have going for them is they are streaky shooters and can knock them down some games. Along with the fact that they have got there brains beaten in last game vs Monmouth. Or they have played so pour in recent games they won't be able to play much worse
That's where you and I are different when we cap:
Getting their brains beaten by Monmouth is the first REQUIREMENT I look for when looking to back Iona here.
If Iona wins that first game there is no way in hell I back a sweep here.
And yes, I love backing bad teams with the right lines and yes, it can get ugly when you are off and it makes it that much sweeter when you win. But Iona doesn't even qualify as bad (they may be a two seed in conference). So I get this 'bad team' line making in a way with a team that is quite competent to beat Monmouth here.
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