Don't want to step on your toes, but I would not include the Atl game as an official play... We have never played a team on same streaks before (1).. We said last week we should start another category to track them(2).. Doesn't mean it still isn't a good play, but I hate to add it to our system when we haven't done it yet(1)..
Second, why is Wash. not a play?? Lost 5 in a row only getting 24% of the action??(3)
(1) This situation has come up but it was in CBB, it came up a couple of times, they were strong plays from what I remember.
(2) What I haven't know what to do with, and what needs to be tracked is when teams are on the same streak, and both have more than 3
(3)I was under the impression (Covers) that WAS is -2 not -5
Quote Originally Posted by wannawinalot:
Disco,
Don't want to step on your toes, but I would not include the Atl game as an official play... We have never played a team on same streaks before (1).. We said last week we should start another category to track them(2).. Doesn't mean it still isn't a good play, but I hate to add it to our system when we haven't done it yet(1)..
Second, why is Wash. not a play?? Lost 5 in a row only getting 24% of the action??(3)
(1) This situation has come up but it was in CBB, it came up a couple of times, they were strong plays from what I remember.
(2) What I haven't know what to do with, and what needs to be tracked is when teams are on the same streak, and both have more than 3
(3)I was under the impression (Covers) that WAS is -2 not -5
For what it's worth, I've always interpreted that saying as never bet against a streak straight up. We're only concerned with ATS streaks. A team can hypothetically go 10-0 straight up, and be up and down ATS.
I was skeptical at first, but over the past 2+ weeks this system seems to be holding its own.
Remeber guys if you truly want to understand the system it is 2 parts... 1) a team with a large winning or losing ATS streak vs. a team with an opposite ATS streak is optimal!!
2) is all about the betting #'s.. as long as we have the matchup we are looking for we are looking to bet the team with less that 30% of the action.. We don't care which side it is we just hope to have a 70/30 split or better on the $.. This will dictate the "system" vs "reverse" play..
That is where the difference of an official play vs a lean.. Maybe the money is only 65/35 or 60/40.. Not strong enough for an official play, but maybe good enough for a lean.. Hope this helps..
Quote Originally Posted by pcll4678:
For what it's worth, I've always interpreted that saying as never bet against a streak straight up. We're only concerned with ATS streaks. A team can hypothetically go 10-0 straight up, and be up and down ATS.
I was skeptical at first, but over the past 2+ weeks this system seems to be holding its own.
Remeber guys if you truly want to understand the system it is 2 parts... 1) a team with a large winning or losing ATS streak vs. a team with an opposite ATS streak is optimal!!
2) is all about the betting #'s.. as long as we have the matchup we are looking for we are looking to bet the team with less that 30% of the action.. We don't care which side it is we just hope to have a 70/30 split or better on the $.. This will dictate the "system" vs "reverse" play..
That is where the difference of an official play vs a lean.. Maybe the money is only 65/35 or 60/40.. Not strong enough for an official play, but maybe good enough for a lean.. Hope this helps..
(1) This situation has come up but it was in CBB, it came up a couple of times, they were strong plays from what I remember.
(2) What I haven't know what to do with, and what needs to be tracked is when teams are on the same streak, and both have more than 3
(3)I was under the impression (Covers) that WAS is -2 not -5
We had this come up the other day with a team that was +5 and +2.. money was right, but we didn't play and we would of lost.. we can do what you want, but I haven't even been listing them most of the time when they are like this.. your call..
As for Washington covers has them -2 / push / -2.... I get all my stats off vegas insider under nba "teams".. It lets me see the whole season worth of games at one time.. They have washington -5 (this is what I have been using).. The problem was the game in the middle was a line from +4/+4.5/+5.. Some lost and some pushed... I would consider them a -5 at this pt..
Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:
(1) This situation has come up but it was in CBB, it came up a couple of times, they were strong plays from what I remember.
(2) What I haven't know what to do with, and what needs to be tracked is when teams are on the same streak, and both have more than 3
(3)I was under the impression (Covers) that WAS is -2 not -5
We had this come up the other day with a team that was +5 and +2.. money was right, but we didn't play and we would of lost.. we can do what you want, but I haven't even been listing them most of the time when they are like this.. your call..
As for Washington covers has them -2 / push / -2.... I get all my stats off vegas insider under nba "teams".. It lets me see the whole season worth of games at one time.. They have washington -5 (this is what I have been using).. The problem was the game in the middle was a line from +4/+4.5/+5.. Some lost and some pushed... I would consider them a -5 at this pt..
We had this come up the other day with a team that was +5 and +2.. money was right, but we didn't play and we would of lost.. we can do what you want, but I haven't even been listing them most of the time when they are like this.. your call..
As for Washington covers has them -2 / push / -2.... I get all my stats off vegas insider under nba "teams".. It lets me see the whole season worth of games at one time.. They have washington -5 (this is what I have been using).. The problem was the game in the middle was a line from +4/+4.5/+5.. Some lost and some pushed... I would consider them a -5 at this pt..
I don't like that...it makes me want to make it a system no play.
People know...and can play it if they want...but something is just weird about that game...
I appreciate the help wanna, do you remember which game was the +5/+2 with good for system action that we passed on?
Quote Originally Posted by wannawinalot:
We had this come up the other day with a team that was +5 and +2.. money was right, but we didn't play and we would of lost.. we can do what you want, but I haven't even been listing them most of the time when they are like this.. your call..
As for Washington covers has them -2 / push / -2.... I get all my stats off vegas insider under nba "teams".. It lets me see the whole season worth of games at one time.. They have washington -5 (this is what I have been using).. The problem was the game in the middle was a line from +4/+4.5/+5.. Some lost and some pushed... I would consider them a -5 at this pt..
I don't like that...it makes me want to make it a system no play.
People know...and can play it if they want...but something is just weird about that game...
I appreciate the help wanna, do you remember which game was the +5/+2 with good for system action that we passed on?
Here is a little dialogue from the last time we were talking about same streaks a few nights ago:
QUOTE Originally Posted by DiscoD69:
I don't know what to do with the same streaks either
they are contradicting as far as I can tell...so I have generally stayed away I believe
do you know how many leans we have had?? I know we lost one for sure I can remember.. we both didn't like it, but it fit lean criteria.. I will just start an "official" lean record tonight... Where is our cutoff for "lean" vs no play going to be?? Over 60%, but not at the 70 level?????????????
Disco,
Here is a little dialogue from the last time we were talking about same streaks a few nights ago:
QUOTE Originally Posted by DiscoD69:
I don't know what to do with the same streaks either
they are contradicting as far as I can tell...so I have generally stayed away I believe
do you know how many leans we have had?? I know we lost one for sure I can remember.. we both didn't like it, but it fit lean criteria.. I will just start an "official" lean record tonight... Where is our cutoff for "lean" vs no play going to be?? Over 60%, but not at the 70 level?????????????
when it came up in CBB it was thrown into the mix with the rest of em, each and everytime.
as for the Washington game in teh NBA I'm not sure why Covers has them at -2...but hey, play it if you want guys. As for our records I don't know....my personal oppinion is that the line was short to begin with...weak lines hurt the system
I don't like the confusion about the ATS streak and what's happening with the betting...I think we should pass
when it came up in CBB it was thrown into the mix with the rest of em, each and everytime.
as for the Washington game in teh NBA I'm not sure why Covers has them at -2...but hey, play it if you want guys. As for our records I don't know....my personal oppinion is that the line was short to begin with...weak lines hurt the system
I don't like the confusion about the ATS streak and what's happening with the betting...I think we should pass
do you know how many leans we have had?? I know we lost one for sure I can remember.. we both didn't like it, but it fit lean criteria.. I will just start an "official" lean record tonight... Where is our cutoff for "lean" vs no play going to be?? Over 60%, but not at the 70 level?????????????
don't quantify it, I don't want to make an exact # as I haven't been going off exact #'s and we've been doing well. I've been trying to read the market as much as possible, but mostly I've just been using my gut feeling.
Yes, we need to keep record of official system leans. There were none today in either CBB or NBA.
I know for sure that posted leans in the NBA went 2-0-1 last night (check yesterday's thread I posted all results)
Quote Originally Posted by wannawinalot:
do you know how many leans we have had?? I know we lost one for sure I can remember.. we both didn't like it, but it fit lean criteria.. I will just start an "official" lean record tonight... Where is our cutoff for "lean" vs no play going to be?? Over 60%, but not at the 70 level?????????????
don't quantify it, I don't want to make an exact # as I haven't been going off exact #'s and we've been doing well. I've been trying to read the market as much as possible, but mostly I've just been using my gut feeling.
Yes, we need to keep record of official system leans. There were none today in either CBB or NBA.
I know for sure that posted leans in the NBA went 2-0-1 last night (check yesterday's thread I posted all results)
when it came up in CBB it was thrown into the mix with the rest of em, each and everytime.
as for the Washington game in teh NBA I'm not sure why Covers has them at -2...but hey, play it if you want guys. As for our records I don't know....my personal oppinion is that the line was short to begin with...weak lines hurt the system
I don't like the confusion about the ATS streak and what's happening with the betting...I think we should pass
It is not a confusion on the ats.. covers has final line of one of the games at 5 which was a push instead of a loss and vegas insider has the final line at 4.5 which was a loss giving them 5 in a row.. Just like any book having different lines..
so there is no confusion I am making the final call for our NBA games:
Official Play:
PORTLAND +3
Official leans:
Atlanta +1.5
Washington +4
*********************be careful on leans.. we were 2-0 yesterday on what I would of called leans, but 1-2 the day before.... It is your call.. money management!! GL
Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:
when it came up in CBB it was thrown into the mix with the rest of em, each and everytime.
as for the Washington game in teh NBA I'm not sure why Covers has them at -2...but hey, play it if you want guys. As for our records I don't know....my personal oppinion is that the line was short to begin with...weak lines hurt the system
I don't like the confusion about the ATS streak and what's happening with the betting...I think we should pass
It is not a confusion on the ats.. covers has final line of one of the games at 5 which was a push instead of a loss and vegas insider has the final line at 4.5 which was a loss giving them 5 in a row.. Just like any book having different lines..
so there is no confusion I am making the final call for our NBA games:
Official Play:
PORTLAND +3
Official leans:
Atlanta +1.5
Washington +4
*********************be careful on leans.. we were 2-0 yesterday on what I would of called leans, but 1-2 the day before.... It is your call.. money management!! GL
your call..
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