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#26
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Monday Hoops
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#28
Quote Originally Posted by dmoore916:
NROPP-
Two games I have questions on. Well 3. Surprised you lean USFAny insight why as I know they are a decent home team. And very surprised on the Rice lean. If you can please help me that would be greatly appreciated.
Also how what are your takes on the Creighton/Tulsa match up. Lean Tulsa as they are big and a decent team from what I have seen but Creighton and McDermitt is hard to stop.
Thanks in advance
This is a pretty rough end to December for South Florida as they end with Cleveland State, Southern Miss, and Uconn. The first of those comes tonight, as they catch a 10-1 Cleveland State team hitting the road with about nine days of preparation time. These two teams met last year and Cleveland State won by seven. USF actually held a halftime lead in that game until Norris Cole went bonkers in the 2H. I think there is a few things that go into this matchup that are just awkward. First, Cleveland State’s defense appears to be extremely good on paper. While the defense has been good under Waters consistently, right now it’s a lot better than what it’s been in past years, and here is why. Right now, they are defending the three-point line extremely well. Since the opener at Vanderbilt, they haven’t really played a team that relies on it. When a team doesn’t make the three-pointer a part of their offense, it’s a ton easier to guard. In terms of putting a # to it, since that Vandy game, they’ve played an average team rank of #218 in relation to three-point attempts. And that’s why I think this defense has looked better than it has. South Florida shoots the three quite a bit so this will be sort of a different look in terms of Cleveland State from a defensive standpoint. Along those same lines, it’s really the first time Cleveland State gets a team with quite a bit of size, something they’ve rarely faced over the course of the past few seasons in the non-conference slate. Now, it’s pretty realistic to assume that Cleveland State could very well be 11-0 at this point as their only loss came in a dud at ten point loss at Hofstra. Here’s the road wins: @ Vandy (by 13) in opener, @ Kent State (by 4), @ Boston (by 1), @ Rhode Island (by 22 – RI blows), @ Wright State (by 2)!!!!!!, @ Detroit (by 5) without Holman, @ Robert Morris by 4. And they just beat Akron by 3 at home. This team is strictly winning games with its defense, and they lack quite a bit on the offensive side. I’m playing South Florida, on the sole basis that this defense tonight not only has to guard the size on the inside, but they also have to contain the perimeter. It’s really something they haven’t faced, and even though they’ve had a nice period that they can prepare for it, it’s something I will take my chances with as this team is just sneaking by in their road situations. If I can get a nice defensive effort from South Florida (which is usually consistent), the home pup should have a nice chance at winning this one outright.
Temple's been in Texas for two days. Not sure if that's a good thing, or a bad thing. This Rice offense is good enough to put points on the board, and do it in a hurry. I only leaned b/c I am uncertain of the status of Kazemi, and he's a big factor for Rice. This Rice team is a mirror image of Temple, though they are a bit younger (big reason for the lean). I'd take a look at an over here. Both teams are strong offensively, and I see this being a fast style transition type of game.
I looked long and hard at Creighton. Came away with the sense of the line being spot on, despite the overwhelming size from Tulsa. Wouldn't surprise me to see Wojcik throw a few wrinkles in how he defends McDermott, been known to do that from time to time.
GL
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Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by lottamoneynono:
Why nobody discussing Indiana, Duke, nor UNC
No feel on any of them, but will point out that UNC-Greensboro has a new coach at the helm in Wes Miller after Dement resigned recently. Not a big fan of the -30's, on or against. Like taking dogs that I think can win outright.
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Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
If Izzo's defense gives up 70 tonight, he will go apesh*t as Missouri KC hasn't gone over 70 against a top 100 team since January 2008 (coincidentally that came against your Missouri squad who played multiple 80 possession games that year). Izzo has shown the ability to play Trice a bit more than Appling at the guard position when he needs defense, so I assume Trice gets the bulk of the minutes tonight guarding Chamberlain (who will be attempting all of those three's), thus taking Appling out of the game from an offensive standpoint. The high # of three's attempted is a cause for concern for any under, but the only comparable opponent in terms of shooting such a high volume from the outside was Wisky MKE and they held them to 5/25. I think if Missouri KC hits ten or eleven from the outside tonight, I'm not sure where the other points are going to come from. If I get what I want early, this thing will be a snail in the 2H.
Here's their point totals against similar competition dating back to that Missouri game in 2008:
31
52
64
52
48
52
54
57
56
65
62
60
54
49
62
62
62
Almost all of these games where they hit 60+ came against conference foes where the familiarity factor is there, either that or playing a conference team like Oakland or North Dakota State who likes to get up and down, and up and down some more.
GL
Great stuff, appreciate the time.
bol
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Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by paperclip09:
NROPP - Great read as always... been reading your posts and analysis daily.
What do you make of the line movement in the Temple/Rice game? I'm on Rice +5.5, thinking this game will be close either way.
Line was as high as 6 - as low as 3 - and you might think public would be all over Temple.
Thoughts??
Line move from 3 to 6 or 6 to 3 or 4 to 5 or 5 to 3 or 3 to 5 or 4 to 6 is a matter of one made or missed shot throughout the course of a game where teams average 67 possessions. I will save my thoughts on the "public" for another day. Focus on the game, not the other junk.
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Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:
Is there a reason for USC to be a 7 point fav today?Seems that taking TCU+7 would be a beeter lean if not a play than the over,
thanks in advance.
Also doesnt it seem that IND.is giving to many points,Howard has only lost by this amount or really close anyway 2 times,not something Im looking to play,just curious if you agree if points are to much.
Is there a reason for USC to be a 7 point fav today?Seems that taking TCU+7 would be a beeter lean if not a play than the over,
thanks in advance.
Also doesnt it seem that IND.is giving to many points,Howard has only lost by this amount or really close anyway 2 times,not something Im looking to play,just curious if you agree if points are to much.
I think the line is right. USC was favored by 6 over Georgia and was a 2.5 point dog to New Mexico, both at home. I can't put TCU in that same category, and they were actually a five point pup at Houston. Moreso, I think the line is a direct indication of how TCU played against snail Nebraska at home. Offense looked awful at times, and they get another snail with a good defense + travel with extended time off. With USC, the offense has looked brutally bad, but they've been playing tough defenses all of December (Minny, New Mexico, and Georgia). Offense should look better tonight against a TCU team that won only one game on the road last year against a Texas Tech team that couldn't defend a team of fifth graders last year. Yes, TCU has won two road games already this year, but those also came against high-tempo teams. Story in this one tonight is how well they travel into a setting where they will be forced to play at a snail's pace, and forced shoot a really good percentage.
Here's the telling stat. If you take away the snails (Virginia and Nebraska), this team is averaging 59 shots a game.
In the Nebraska game, they attempted 50.
In the Virginia game, they attempted 43.
If you think they can take less than 50 shots here, and shoot a good percentage against a good defense in a true road setting, then you get some value.
GL
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Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by kww:
Neil,
Any idea what to expect with usc? They seem to always get a lot of love, but never produce. Is TCU as good as the record they have. Just have a funny feeling they will be outmatched tonight by a crappy shooting trojan team.
Neil,
Any idea what to expect with usc? They seem to always get a lot of love, but never produce. Is TCU as good as the record they have. Just have a funny feeling they will be outmatched tonight by a crappy shooting trojan team.
Commented on it above. Will also mention that despite being 7-3, it's my belief that TCU is currently the worst team in the MWC right now.
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#36
hey man, respect your insight very much, have any opinion on cal santa barb/cal over 136.5? i feel both teams tempos will allow extra possesions for the teams, but uncertain of CSB def considering some of the comp theyve played, Wash& UNLV styles both seemed have no ussue with it so im seeing what you think...
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by sungod95:
Good luck Nropp.Do you have any feel on the Western Illinois/Illinois Chicago game?Im thinking about taking Western Illinois.
Thanks
I'm following this one closely tonight. I leaned UIC just because of the huge discrepancy in talent and coaching edge, but my feel for Western Illinois has been entirely wrong. Not only did they play within 4 points of Michigan, when they started conference play they took out one of the hottest teams in the country at the time in North Dakota State, then on 2 days rest lost by 1 point to South Dakota State who just hung 92 at Washington. The defense has been really good and good enough to where the lack of offense hasn't really hurt them quite yet. It's going to at some point, just don't know when.
GL
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Posted:
#40
Quote Originally Posted by threes20:
hey man, respect your insight very much, have any opinion on cal santa barb/cal over 136.5? i feel both teams tempos will allow extra possesions for the teams, but uncertain of CSB def considering some of the comp theyve played, Wash& UNLV styles both seemed have no ussue with it so im seeing what you think...
I think the tempo will be nice, but taking Cal in any over is a sketchy situation b/c of how good their defense is, especially at home. They held Lillard to 4/17 shooting the other night, and probably employ the same game-plan against Johnson tonight. Along those same lines, Cal just doesn't give up offensive rebounds to anyone and the interior defense is excellent. Cal has UNLV on tap Friday, so a letdown is possible though.
GL
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Posted:
#46
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
Wow! Sounds like a pretty damn good analysis to me! I’ve commented on this a few times before this year, but the way that Delaware operates from an offensive standpoint isn’t really the strongest type of team for me to back in any situation, let alone one that is going to come within a few possessions in terms of a value standpoint. The Saddler kid is now attempting 38% of this teams shots, and while he isn’t the most efficient player, any person who attempts that many shots is going to put up some good numbers. Along with Saddler, they’ve also found another scoring threat in Hagins, but not as much of a threat as most would think. He’s attempting 21% of the team’s shots (yes two players account for almost 60% of their shot attempts), but he’s no more than an in the paint type of player, and from what I’ve seen, most of his attempts are coming on Saddler’s misses. Other than that, this team outside of them is made up of a few role players, primarily in the game for a defensive presence. LaSalle is young, but they haven’t really played anyone in this latest five game winning streak and not generally the type of team I like playing on the road laying any kind of chalk. However, the defense has been absurdly good, especially on the perimeter. Four of the five starters are currently "on the board" in terms of forcing turnovers, and three of those come at the guard position. Coincidentally, their two best on the ball defenders rank in the top 100 (out of about 3,800 players), and those are the two that will be guarding Saddler and Hagins as I’ve noted above. If Saddler and Hagins shot attempts are down, Delaware is going to need another source of offense come from somewhere else not only from the standpoint of shooting more than normal, but the standpoint of producing more than normal. Really, this game comes down to two things. One, will Delaware get caught up in the up and down hectic pace that LaSalle wants to play at? My answer is yes, I believe so. When you have a few players hoisting tons of shots, and the rest of your team is young, and have little crowd or cheering section, more than likely you aren’t going to be able to slow them down. And two, how well does Delaware defend LaSalle’s shooters? It sounds so cliché, but if you’ve read any of my analysis for the better part of the past two or three years, this Delaware defense really allows a crazy # of shot attempts b/c they sit back in a man-to-man (I would almost call it a modified match-up zone). They rarely, if ever take chances on getting steals and when they do occur, it’s more a product of the offense turning the ball over or forcing mistakes upon themselves (something LaSalle just doesn’t do against these types of defenses). Take a glance at what they’ve done this year. They played Pitt tough and lost to Villanova in OT, two teams that don’t look to take risks defensively. Four out of their last five games have come against a majority of teams who like to slow the pace, and incorporate a style that allows you to get shots within your offense (ranking #319, #322, #247, and #277). When you get in the flow of your offense, you’re bound to get good looks, and as long as that flow continues and nothing is drastically changing, then you are going to have opportunities to score, also noting the fact that with their pressure defense, they’re getting a ridiculous amount of “extra” opportunities. Both this year and last year with the youth, Delaware has gotten worse as last year they were dead last at #345 in forcing turnovers, and this year they stand at #344. LaSalle has been crazy good from the perimeter this year, so it’s something to keep an eye on. Both teams have had more than a week to prep, so I’ll be curious to see if either coach makes any changes. If they don’t, then this line is a clear indication of what’s going to happen tonight, and LaSalle has numerous advantages here, especially if they can play as fast as they want.
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