madness

if porter jr disrupts chemistry to the point they just crap the bed a second time here, so be it.  Florida St is poorly coached and has done basically nothing to inspire confidence that they will make noise.  They allowed ACC teams to shoot 40.5% from deep.  Missouri bombs away from 3 at a solid clip, now add in a guy with porter jr's ceiling with more practice time...only in this season from hell would i get f*cked by leonard freakin hamilton in this matchup

This hall group has been bounced 1st rd each of last 2 years.  Now as seniors, against a team that has been mostly quite beatable away from home and lacks tourney experience, if their legacy is going to be that they lose 1st round every year, so be it.  I'll pay

would think these dudes will have a chip on their shoulder coming off that miserable mich game and getting jerked having to go on the road for NIT.  Miss St especially not at full strength is mostly mediocre

really dont see davis having the horses to stay in range of a team like utah on the road, losing their best player Moneke didnt hurt them too bad in big west but could really use his scoring here.  Think utes pull away 

gl

When I look at this game I see a zags team that will probably screw me.  But I also see a greensboro team that runs tons of clock offensively and can hit 3's at end of shotclock, they rebound and pla legit D.  They foul a ton which could be a problem, but the rest sounds like potential upset recipe.  

165- I'm having worst season of my career so I will prob lose seton hall.  But regarding what you wrote, the last 17 years means absolute jack squat to me.  It's a vet group  who has been thru this madness buildup week twice already now, while nc state has not.  How many of those hall teams the last 17 years were a top 30ish  team with a  vet group like this?  Failures under prior regimes mean nothing.    They face a team who overachieved a bit that doesnt scare me too much.  I see nothing silly about backing the hall laying short number. 

alright, didnt really want to lay 20 again, but cmon, looks like worst matchup possible for fullerton

I just dont see how fullerton could give this team a scare.  They dont take or make a lot of 3's, so the 3 pt fg made disparity could be significant.  They aggressively attack to draw fouls, but purdue has one of the lowest foul rates out there.  Also, seems like noone on the roster could handle the purdue bigs.  I just cant see how this isnt a complete mismatch, but who knows with the madness

gl 

As I said, I'm uncomfortable that I have an extra unit on mizzou minus a key player that I didnt know was out.  I find fsu so unappealing that the fact they're actually favored is a bad sign.  

and here's the other game I'm playing tonight...

I donno, there are some teams that are extra annoying to lose to.  This cuse team and any leonard hamilton tourney team really top the list for me.  

Also- dont get me started on the seton hall-kansas game tomorrow.  We all know I will be on the hall, and we all know it probably wont end well.  

good luck

the actual bet and odds I made is below, wrote it wrong above

As I said, I never would have doubled down on mizzou had I known the circumstances, and it sucks, I was stuck with it because was too expensive to buy back a unit, just not worth it.  Mistakes add up.  The worst part was, it was the  very last game of the freakin first round, I knew i was in a bad spot with that game, it was very uncomfortable with it hanging over my head all week, just wanted to get it over with.  Then they had to inspire false hope by dominating 1st 10 minutes of 2nd half to cut to 6.  Blah

And good call on cuse, the zone owned them.  I look at cuse and see a team so freakin beatable, but it doesnt matter if a team like tcu is simply too crappy to get it done.  Sick of seeing cuse still in the bracket, and wish I could say with some confidence that mich state will take care of them....but considering mich state barely handled the middling teams in the big10, doesnt inspire much confidence.

frankly last night took the final winds out of my sails, but I shall play out the string of course.

sat plays

URI was pretty corny down the stretch this year.  showed some serious choking ability in multiple games, went 5-4 barely eking out most of the wins.  Just dont see them being in position with how they're playing to upset duke.  It wont be hard for K to get duke focused after the uva upset, and I think bagley will too much for them.  Looking for the pullaway

we've seen that the good midmajors can be tough on even the toughest D's like tenn, it's impressive the way this team moves the ball and spaces the floor, and I think they'll get their looks with multiple shooters being able to knock 'em down.  No real scary size disadvantage here and I dont think tenn's athleticism will overwhelm them.  I also like that loyola is not foul happy, as the ft line is a source of good % of tenn's points.  Ramblers look live to me here

my worry is that the kansas team that will take the court today is better than the kansas team I viewed as so beatable in conference play (tho hard to know how effective doke will be).  De sousa now gives them some quality depth with the way he came on of late.  That said, unlike the big12 teams that piss down their leg aganist kansas, especially west v and kan st, kansas wont have a psychological edge on the hall vets.  It's a mentally tough group that I think will bring that big east toughness here and could surprise them.  If the jayhawks hit 17 3's so bet it.  

gl

so the bettors that dont follow the sport and only bet on the tourney, will see clemson look great in game 1, and auburn continue to be less than impressive, and will be on clemson as a dog simply automatically.  I just find it weird and unsettling with this being the case.  Clem shouldnt be dogged, with the current forms of these teams clemson seems legit better and more versatile.  Would be surprised if auburn plays well enough all game to win, but the books seem to think otherwise I guess.  

 Auburn wants to get out and run and if clemson can keep it to their pace and keep auburn in the halfcourt more than they want that should bode well.  Clemson plays legit D, has a strong big man and 3 veteran guards.  It's a good formula, especially against a very beatable opponent that has been trending down with their play since they got some injuries. 

whatever.  Good for cuse getting the most out of what they have.  If they get into a multi possession hole I still feel it could get ugly.  Either michigan state will actually look like a top tier team and pull away from a limited offensive team with no depth, or they will just get dragged down and look like struggling herbs against the zone.  Looking for the former to happen

gl