Last2Thirst - Conf Play Picks

Tuesday:  2 - 0  + 2.5U ... just keep grinding on best correlations and the work I put into it...no hunching

@Last2thirst

 North Alabama has been a quiet money maker this year.

Good Fortune heading into March! 

 Thanks  Xdodge

Yes, they have been sneaky good. They are ranked #170 in my ratings facing a team ranked #339th and my correlation charts lead to a ranking bias of 30 - 11 ATS for the favorite no matter the spread when these rank zones tend to meet (151st - 190th rank vs 331st or worse) since Conference Play began on Jan 1 

-teams also ranked 151- 190th were hitting 4 - 0 ATS when a favorite of -16 to -20.5 .....make that 5 - 0 now so yes, a very powerful double correlation hit tonight for me and I am happy that you got it too and if its your team, that is even better!

GL the rest of the season 

Play #1 Wednesday - OVER 175.5 St Thomas -South Dakota x 2.5U ($300)

-when these two teams played in their first game at St. Thomas, they scored 200+ pts easily

-South Dakota is consistently a 90 pt scoring home team when playing a good offensive team

-St Thomas offense is one of the best in college for shooting and temp.....this game is going to be a track meet and scoring fest easily going over this number 

I will look for more later tomorrow....but this is a real chance to grab some easy UNITS in my opinion. I made +2.5 U tonight so what the hell eh? 

Really like one other game tonight with a great home court especially when playing a similar rank or sometimes beating a slightly better team...

Denver -3 x 1U

-Oral Roberts is 0 - 13 ATS on the road !

1 - 1 and gave back 1.5 Units

South Dakota once again proves it is a great home court! But not good enough to go OVER that number ....

GL today 2 

Thanks Fuse 

Might play some horses instead. Weather has been terrible last couple of weeks but not tonight!!

Saturday Play #1 - Texas AM - Tennessee OVER 130.5 x 1U

- DR ratings highest TOTAL prediction underlay (by over 10 pts!) > they think the total should be over 140!

- going to try them out because their ratings have been strong for my correlations all year and took the time to check out their predictions....this one stood out by far (going to try them out in the last few weeks + do my own double correlations, leading up to March Madness)

-games at noon.....tends to not be really low scoring I find (not this low)

Play #2 - Liberty -13 x Half U 

-strong double correlation for spread with rank zones between opponents in my spreadsheet

Play #3 - StoneyBr - NC At+T Over 134.5 x HALF U

-DR ratings has a prediction result above 145 total for this one 

Play #4 - Citadel +19.5 x HALF U 

-strong Double FADE of favourite correlation against Chattanooga

Play #5 - Mercer +3.5 x 1 U 

-my strongest Double Fade of the early afternoon so far

-according to my chart, teams that are ranked like UNC Greensboro in the 150 = 190th percentile are 25 - 40 ATS versus a 260th ranked opponent like Mercer and also, when a line is -3 to -5.5 for the favorite, the success rate is just 21 - 53 - 3 ATS as a spread 

- take the home dog here!!!

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These are strong plays I feel up to 3 pm today.....will have some more later

4pm - 6 pm games:

Play #6 - Okie St +14.5  x HALF U  

-double fade correlation

- teams ranked 21-40 (Kansas) are 13 - 20 ATS as favorites when facing a team ranked 91 - 120th ....but it gets worse when they face a spread of -11 to -15.5 >> they are just 5 - 21 ATS vs this spread area 

Play #7 - Nevada -1 x HALF U 

-very powerful double correlation with a team ranked in the 60's beating teams in the 40-45 rank percentile like Boise to the tune of 9 - 2 ATS 

Teaser 5pts: HALF U

- SJSU St +10 with Okie St +19.5 with Radford Over 129

$30

- Seattle +10.5 with Okie St +19.5 with Radford Over 129 with UCRiver Under 165.5

- Houston Chri. +7 with Okie St +19.5 with Norfolk - 8.5 with UCRiver Under 165.5

-Akron Under 171.5 with SJSU +10 with Texas St +3 with Texas Southern -19

Saturday Play #1 - Texas AM - Tennessee OVER 130.5 x 1U  

Play #2 - Liberty -13 x Half U   push!

Play #3 - StoneyBr - NC At+T Over 134.5 x HALF U   

Play #4 - Citadel +19.5 x HALF U   

Play #5 - Mercer +3.5 x 1 U  

Good start to the day.... 3 - 1 - 1  (+1U)

......capping 7 - 8 pm games now because I am capping Mohawk Harness on my horse thread after 

Rest of the night games:

Play #8 Over Gonzaga 141.5 x HALF U

-Zags will dictate the pace and calls from the refs ... I can see a 75-69 type of score or higher

-I have seen scores in the past around 130 pts with 2-3 minutes to play balloon up to over 145 with these 2 teams....strong rivalry and they foul right up to the end of the match regardless of score because they always want to play their opponent closely

Play #9 Montana St - 1.5 x 1U

-strong rivalry + strong double correlation for the favorite usually implies a home win in this case

Have a good night and if you like horses (standardbreds with harness), come over to my Harness thread with a PICK5 being handicapped for Race #1 - 5 tonight.... 

Making my picks for Sunday using my correlation charts.....really good day in Kings using all Correlation picks except for a couple of plays

 02/22/2025    23 - 14 - 1   62.16%    +3900

Sunday: - double correlation ATS high % for faves or Double Fades vs fave

Play #1 - UCONN -3.5 x HALF U   (DC)

- STRONG LEAN to OVER ....might play in the morning

Play #2 - Cleveland St. +3 x HALF U (DF) 

Play #3 - UCF - 2.5 x HALF U (DC)

 Teaser (5 pt) $30 each > return $33 profit per win>  S. Florida Over 125.5 with Manhattan Under 161 with:

1. Wisc Milwaukee +6.5

2. N. Iowa Over 121.5 

3. Purdue +1.5

4. S. Dak St. Over 140.5

5. UCLA Over 135

6. Georgetown +17.5

$30 TEASER - 4 way = HALF U profit 

> S.Florida +9.5 with UNDER 161 Manhattan with Over N. Iowa 121.5 with USC +8.5

> UNDER S. Florida 135.5 same as above (next 3 )

Might not play the UCF -2.5 .....will wait for line movement before deciding ....think it might move to a lower number since they have lost 6 games in a row....Double Correlation (DC) charting says I should go for it 

Tuesday - strong double fades or positive correlations for favorite

Minnesota -2.5 (1.80) x 1U

> 21 - 14 ATS for fave with this spread for the rank zone

> Rank comparisons favor the home team with a 9 - 3 ATS result when this situation happens 

Tenn- LSU Over 136.5 x HALF U 

-LSU is a team that is sneaky good on its home court especially with its offense....Vols don't really play at full robotic defensive mode vs a middling SEC team

New Mexico +2.5 x HALF U 

- my ratings have them much higher than San Diego St and when playing a tough defensive team, I always want to take points with the stronger shooting team with a higher rank 

Teaser 5 pts - HALF U > Santa Clara +11.5 with New Mex +7.5 with Alabama -3

Made the above plays late last night and forgot to send these.....hopefully numbers are similar this morning...

Minnesota Over 130.5 x 1U also....

-this is going to be a dogfight and the loser will foul to keep it close ....both teams are 14 - 13 and not much room for them to fall behind pace of 5+ wins above .500 to make then NCAA tourney

GL  

Thanks 

Adding Richmond +15.5 x HALF U play....double fade correlation

-teams with VCU's ranking range are 0 - 2 ATS with this spread number  vs their opponent's rank zone and I would assume, those spreads were home spreads? VCU on the road vs a weaker Richmond team this year but traditionally strong home court as their play has shown improvement in Conference play

- rank zone vs rank zone is 7 - 16 - 1 ATS for the fave for these cohorts 

-

Wednesday:

Georgetown +14 x HALF U > strong double fade here against UCONN in my correlation chart

Michigan St +4.5 x HALF U > they completely own this series but this is the best Maryland team in over a decade.... this is too many points to cover versus a team in Sparty that can score inside in many ways...and don't give up the ball much while attempting to do it 

Gardiner +3.5 x HALF U - strong double fade on this one 

Clemson Over 134 x 1 >> play of the day for me....they dominate and score easily at home and I expect ND to jack up 3 pters ....Clemson should have no issue scoring 75-80.... and I suspect ND will get their 60-65 pts

Might have more later ....

@Last2thirst

 I'm on G-Town as well, UConn hasn't really blown anyone out all season, good luck!

Thanks CNYBILLSFAN  .... hoping Josh and the boys will get'er done next year but Mahomes and Chiefs are going to be hungry after that embarrassing loss in SB

This GT team is one of the best they have had in 5 + yrs and I cannot say the same for UCONN, although Hurley gets them ready

Other games I like (some nice  totals) - HALF U each:

Florida Gulf Over 145.5

Bucknell -2 

Temple +1.5

Citadel Over 140

Belmont -1.5 

Lipscomb Over 144.5

NC Central ML with Oregon St. ML parlay = 1.95 payout

Arkansas -2.5 ....never take Horns on the road vs a better team (always take them at home vs better team!)

Wednesday: RESULTS

Georgetown +14 x HALF U >  PUSH

 Michigan St +4.5 x HALF U  

 Gardiner +3.5 x HALF U   

Clemson Over 134 x 1 >> play of the day for me 

HALF U each:

Florida Gulf Over 145.5  

Bucknell -2   

Temple +1.5  

Citadel Over 140  

Belmont -1.5  

Lipscomb Over 144.5  

NC Central ML with Oregon St. ML parlay = 1.95 payout  

Arkansas -2.5   

Looks like I am going to carver out a +1U night.... 

Thursday Total placed right away....too low!

Denver-UMKC OVER 136 x  1.5 U

-this total should be way over 140!

These 2 teams may not even crack 100 pts together.....what kind of shite shooting are we watching here?? Lol

Shit, what a bad OVER call on Denver-UMKC