Last2Thirst - Conf Play Picks

Brand new thread because I needed a rebrand.... NON-CONF Picks was not reflecting what is happening in Conference PLay since Jan 1

- I continue to input my correlation charts for JUST CONFERENCE play, but I will bring out my Non Conf, results come the March Tourney because you will have to change the mindset back to the way it was

- I use this service for my rankings for the second year in a row and this year, its really working for me (yes Massey and Sagarin are good but I don't like the delay they have with them > this one updates much quicker and more useful for my correlations that I RECORD every result since the beginning of the season > yes, a lot of work but it works for me as I am green and over 60% personally and in King of the Covers) great site for ratings in my opinion!>> https://www.dratings.com/sports/ncaa-college-basketball-ratings/  << remember the ratings change daily

Season = 80- 54 - 1  (+22.5 Units = +  > $2700 )  

Exotic Bet Account = - $296 << plunged another $160 this week....brutal

King of Covers NCAAB: > 9th  Last2thirst  120-80-0    60.00%    +16000  (will finish 3-1 or 2-2 tonight with only 4 plays)

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1 UNIT = $120

HALF U = $60

Observations so far in Conference play since Jan 1:

-some of the best teams are getting tired or bored.....no longer dominating double digit lines! ...and getting upset this week

- best results from me reflected in the King of Covers contest, are when teams ranked 90th or higher clash with teams their rank or higher and in general 'the dogs' of college basketball that are trying to climb over each other and improve to get to THE TOURNEY

Reality- Evidence: (what's hot or not as favorites in my Correlation chart)

-top 20 teams are now only 33 -30 ATS vs all other ranks (21 - 40th teams not much better > 28 - 26 in Conference play)

- teams ranked 91 - 120th continue to perform well ATS (42 - 33 ATS) since Jan 1

- worst category are ranks 121 - 150th with only at 31 - 43 ATS record

- teams ranked 281 - 330 are not performing well either (28 - 35)

-worst rank vs rank combos > teams ranked 121 - 150th are 1 - 8 ATS vs teams ranked 151- 190th

> teams ranked 66 - 90 are only 2 - 8 ATS vs teams ranked 151 - 190th

> teams ranked 121 - 150th are 0 - 7 ATS vs teams ranked 121 - 150th

-best rank vs rank combos > teams 151 - 190th are 13 - 3 ATS as favorites vs teams ranked 331+

-worst line for a rank category 

> teams ranked 151 - 190th are only 5 - 16 ATS with a line -3 to -5.5  as favorites

> teams ranked 121 - 150th are only 3 - 9 ATS with a line -2.5 or lower as favorites

-best lines for a rank category -things are evening out I find....

> teams ranked 91 - 120th are 11 - 5 ATS with a line -11 to -15.5 as favorites

> teams ranked 151 - 190 are 16 - 10 ATS with a line  -6 to -10.5 as favorites

Working on correlations for Saturday games.....might have something ready later

nicely done n TY

Thanks finster and IAd 

You can track what I am playing in the King of Covers here....but I take more risks there and do more volume. 14 -7 two days ago on volume and 2 - 2 last night > https://contests.covers.com/kingofcovers/picks/bets/a04a59f1-45f1-415f-9d3b-b21400d45dc1

For my own account, which has been bruised this week. Only play I like a lot in the 12 noon games:

Play #1 - Army -2 x 1U Double UP (when I lose my next triple, I will stop. I went from Nov.29 - Jan 16 not losing one triple loss in a row with my favorite plays so its been good for me)

- Boston is not as good on the road as they are at home at 2 - 6, while Army is 7 - 2 at home

-Army is a more offensive team this year and Boston struggles to score on the road

-home teams tend to win this matchup and Boston already did earlier this year

I will be playing a lot of games likely in King of Covers....was up till 2am last night revamping my stats to have them fresh to correlate the matches with up to date rankings

-you can see my angles in my Kings plays but will refine what I place in here with my personal money

BY THE WAY.....ARMY is a fantastic TEASER KEY now that I think about it....tease 5 pt to +3 . That would be gold in this matchup in my opinion

Teasers: 5 pt $30 each pay 2.1> KEY Holy Cross +7 with Kansas UNDER 144.5 with:

1. UMBC +2.5

2. VMI +6

3. Auburn Over 141

4. UNDER 138 Oakland

5. W. Mich Under 159

BACKUP play > VMI +6 with Holy Cross +7 with Kansas -9.5  with W. Mich UNDER 159 x $40 > pays $80 profit

Kings plays are updated for 1pm game adds...I posted my link in the first or 2nd post of my new thread....

Working on capping 2pm games now....there are so many!

2pm Double #2 ?> if it looks like I might lose Army game because Boston is storming back and now within 6 pts, this game will be a 2 U game but only betting 1U right now and a regular bet

Radford -3 x 1U (2U if Army game is tight)

-superior offense and defense stats and they can play any style and rebound well

-Charles Southern has to shoot out of its mind or gain a lot of offensive rebounds and put backs to cover I believe....and Radford is a strong defensive rebounding program (65th)

Radford play ended up being only 1 U......I decided the 5 pt cushion was fine. A push I figured in the Army game was all I was worried about. We got it!  68 - 62

Not gonna lie....VEGAS is really dialed in on many plays....trap lines galore

I am finding it hard to find a number that makes sense from 4pm to 6pm .....virtually numbers that don't have favorable stats

Getting roasted in the King of Covers....and I don't like a lot of plays this late afternoon. Still working at it....but might give up soon as my wife and I are having a date night

Charleston -6.5 x 1U Double Up play

- they are another completely different animal with the home crowd over the years (watched a game there while visiting Charleston and it is a loud and raucous environment for the home team

- NE stats are not great in any category.....pretty good offense and decent defense, but they pale on both sides of the ball in my opinion when compared to Charleston

IT HAS TAKEN MORE OVER 1 HOUR to find a decent enough play to lay down $120 on it.....getting roasted in King of Covers and I can see what Vegas is doing all day long. Putting up skinny lines on visiting teams who aren't great on the road but just had an impressive win and they are losing!

That's enough tonight....got to know when things are not working

Sunday Plays: - nice numbers in my opinion and with correlation

Under Maryland 147.5 x HALF U

Youngstown -8 ix 1U  >> is 5 - 5 ATS on the road going against a 1 - 7 ATS home team......Youngstown blew away a similar ranked 322d team of IUPUI on Jan 1

GL 

More Sunday:

Michigan -9.5 x HALF U

Over 146 Michigan x HALF U 

- on home court, Michigan struts and scores and will take their frustration out on NW for the Minny loss

-good correlation on the rankings 

-NW tends to go Over more this year and especially on the road

My DOUBLE UP #2 x 2U is Robert Morris +8

-they have have great results on the road and keep things close.....tend to get into high scoring games with their pace

- Wisc Milw is a lower scoring team this year 

-  this rank combo correlation tends to be a FADE against the favorite

Baylor -12.5 is a double fade on correlation but just going to leave it alone..

TCU plays them tough and are scrappy

Might play the UNDER there instead

3 - 2  (+1.5U) today with a DOUBLE UP win - another tough week ....have had 2 of 3 and I think this week, I will end up in a minus 

Sitting 14th after an 8 - 4 - 1 day in Kings....got beat up yesterday and so did a lot of people

14th  Last2thirst    145-109-1    57.06%    +12550

Just added up my KINGS record since Jan 1 = 92 - 75 .....its been tough in my mind but I am happy with that but am working to get to 60% in Conference Play. Its not going to be easy!

Monday Plays:

Play #1 - Harvard-Penn Under 140 x 1U 

-two of the weaker teams both schools have fielded and I only see one team with a chance to score over 70 MAYBE ...... Harvard with a steady defense and Penn with a weak offense means Harvard can take their time with the ball and not rush/ set things up

-If Harvard Princeton could only generate 130 pts....I fail to see this one going over 140 ....Princeton has a good offense

Play #2 - Dartmouth - Yale Over 152 - can see Yale covering the spread only if Dartmouth has a poor shooting day but Dartmouth has excellent shooting from the 3pt stripe while Yale is ranked 220th defense vs.....put up enough shots and many will fall enough for them to score 65-70 pts....I can definitely see Yale over 80pts in this one

Play #3 - Columbia - Princeton 0VER 153.5 x HALF U

-Princeton has transitioned nicely out of a stale offense for over a couple years ago, to a dynamic shooting team with still the great ball movement, but hitting the 3 pt much more rather than the backdoor cut

-Columbia's 3 pt defense will oblige 80+ pts to Princeton as their own offense ways and lack of attention to the 3 pt means that they will be best to out gun the Princeton shooters 

Been a long time since that I have my first 3 plays as TOTALS to start my capping day 

 keep it rolling

2 pm game - UNDER 126.5 LIU x HALF U

- I expect a cagey game with LIU very defensive minded, especially at home and this is a first meeting between them

-there is nothing in Mercyhurst offensive arsenal that looks threatening statistically

0 - 4 .... grinding again

Taking a break for a bit....I  see sneaky Vegas lines today again and I find January betting to be tricky every year from 2nd week till Feb 2nd week ....will gather data to fill in and sift. If I see a double correlation, I will play it but those are becoming rare I find

No strong DC's tonight despite all the games 

Besides, made over $1400 on Buffalo and Ohio St games the past few days and when I do that, I don't want to press into NCAAB or more horse plays