Last2Thirst - Conf Play Picks

I have taken the following in Kings"

- Iowa -7.5

- Under 168.5 Alabama (2 teams that trend to the UNDER more than the OVER ...styles make the match right!)

- Akron - Buffalo Over ...remember that Buffalo loose game recently with W.Mich? both trend OVER this year and I think this one could blow past the over 

-TTECH revenge game for last year loss at home to Cincy and they have the offense or defense to stop Cincy 

Still working through some last minute picks in Kings ....

Davidson OVER 147.5 

B.C. +8.5 

Under 149 VCU ...expect this to be a gritty game ...and took +7 as well ....look at RI home record!!

Indiana +5.5 fits with my Double Correlation x HALF U ..... their games are tight almost always with NW

Wofford -15.5 x HALF U

South Florida -2 x HALF U

Ole Miss -3 x HALF U ....hard to go against one of my faves in TexAM but following strong correlation

And those are my best tonight.....GL

Start well, and then the 2nd half grinds.....its getting frustrating as most of my correlations are no longer aligning from night to night  ..... probably end up 1 - 3 here after an 0 - 4 night. I don't dare DOUBLE UP now until things get regular

Georgetown - Providence Under 139.5 x 1U 

-too many pts for their rivalry, especially when GT has the defensive formula in general and to win on the road vs a tough environment at Villa.....they know that to control Providence, and Prov to control GT, it has to be a defensive and long clock battle and the point total caught my eye but even moreso, when I knew GT is defensive this year and Providence is not as strong of a group and strangely are leaving Bryce Young on the bench 

I will cherry pick some games today on feel while I let my CORRELATION chart deepen because what worked for me to a betting tune of over 63% in Non Conference is not working with Conference Play as I left that chart alone and instead, have been compiling Conference play data and like the NON CONF chart, I really didn't hit my stride until after one month and then I was hitting over 70%....so I need to let it brew and apply the data after January

L2T.......

IAd ...its been a grind and a rest from 'pressing' to make plays is necessary. I could feel this coming as soon as my rankings got near the Top 10 in KINGS ....it typically happens

I don't know if you remember...I stopped in late November for 3-5 days and then let the data launch me to a great December and early January....sometimes as a bettor, you have to listen to the good streak AND BAD STREAK

2PM

 Michigan St @ Rutgers -7.5/ 151 << this is the highest total set in their last 10 meetings by far 

- Michigan plays Minny next and they now know that Minny is grinder and streaky team that likes to surprise the good teams

- at their best, Sparty is a killer in their defensive end.....at their worst, they don't care and let their opponents shoot 3 balls and play an open game BUT, still win

- coach will know that Rutgers is a different animal this year and like to play an open game and I don't think that they have the offense to overcome a very strong offense (Sparty) , rebounding and defensive team who rarely uses the 3 pt shot and rather would like to pass into a good shot....... this does not bode well for RUTGERS if coach has them dialed in to be proper

Play #1 - Sparty -7 x 1U

Play #2 - UNDER 151 x HALF U

I think I can get both 

Binghamton - Bryant Over 152 x 1U

-Bryant is just a killer right now and Binghamton will bring out the best in their offense and theirs as well....both teams are offensive and only have issues when they don't play free flowing teams

Cleveland St Under 140.5 x 1U

-excellent team defense vs a poor shooting WiscGB team who HAS BEEN SHOOTING crazy good lately .....CLST will be onto this and like they tend to at home, pay attention to defense. They don't need to be fast in their own offensive sets vs WISCGB either because they have excellent transition defense and this is how WiscGB has been jumping on their opponents lately....quick transition up the court and get off a 3 pt before the fave could get their defense set up

Sparty-Rutgers going as I thought....Sparty just has to stay focused and disciplined the rest of the way

I GIVE UP!!!! JEEZZZZZZZ Louise

VEGAS lines /totals are tighter than a nun's tit after watching porno all day long!! 

PUSH - BRYANT TOTAL

PUSH - SPARTY COVER -7 on a last second 3pt at the BUZZER which by the way >> PUT ME OVER so I lose some money and then early, I lost the first play to a defensive GT going OVER versus Providence

If I get Clev St. UNDER, consider it a miracle and call me ST LAST!

Last 2 Plays

 2 Units > Grand Canyon Under 149 ...their opponent can defend the 3 pt and GC has a great defense 

1 Unit > Alabama UNDER 167.5 > LSU with a real good defense and cannot shoot the 3 pt so I don't see them ever coming back on Alabama who will just toy with them and be bored

That's better .... 2 - 0 +3U in my pissed off plays .....and 0 - 3 - 2 (-2.5U early)

Can't wait to input this data and get some discernible trends finally after really 25 bizarre days of Conference play....

My play of the day:

ARMY -2 x 1U  and OVER 142 x HALF U

-this is a mismatch because, Army has their best offense in years and yes Navy are scrappy and yes this is a rivalry, but I know for sure Army is tired of losing to Navy more often than not and with this offense, they will do it on their home court 

-there is a strong case for this to be a 75 - 70 type of game or more if it goes to OT....NAVY will hack Army for fouls if behind because they have a strong 3 pt shooting side and this will send the total over itself.....if they are hitting well during the game, Army will answer back

TEASER x 1U  - 5pts> Army +3 with Indiana +8.5 with Memphis -2

L2T......

Privately, I bet Wyoming last night UNDER 137.5 and I was fine until Wyoming let Fresno take the lead and had to hit a last second 3pt to go into OT with a total of 134.....I was pissed off so I rolled into Gonzaga in a revenge game with Beavers and went OVER 2.5 X 2U and nailed it

Its been a tough January in contests and personally.

I see a spot tonight in the RI-UMASS game UNDER 158 x 1U  I played this morning..... I see it at 157.5 right now

-RI can play offensively and defensively...they are what I call a 'moody' team and UMASS are not great shooters but can play defense.....this total is a fade of UMASS shooting ability vs a dominant RI home court usually so even if RI hits 80 pts, I don't see UMASS beating them and therefore they might get 70-75 while hacking for fouls in the last few minutes 

Lets just say UMASS puts RI behind late ....both teams in either case are great at the charity stripe > UMASS 326TH and RI 256TH

My Half U plays:

Boise - 7.5 > revenge game

Texas Tech Over 136.5 > tend to squash teams for 80 pts at home and TCU been playing well lately

Virginia ML > at least has a system with their coach and tend to pick on teams that don't / hang your hat on their defense

NTexas-Wichita Under 134 > both play solid defense and Wichita cannot shoot great....scores are low when N. Texas on the road

Alabama +1 and UNDER 165 parly > they love challenges! ....... playing a defensive team who tends to squash opponents with it and I think Alabama can play through it but also play defense themselves and win an ugly one like 72 - 70 sort of score

Santa Clara +5 >> never doubt this team!! Or the Beavers at home....and SC is building that rep!

Nice work. GL today 

Thanks, I need it! 

This Rhode Is game...they are scoring every 5-10 seconds at times....no defense.....crazy

Part 2 of my plan with RI and UMASS....take 2nd half Under if I feel its too high....for me..... a number 81 or higher will be too high

I have a feeling that if URI holds this lead to 7 or so, they will change their approach in the second half. I also notice that when a visitor starts hot in the first half and they are not normally a strong shooting team, I fade them in the 2nd half

I just hit 2nd half for 1.5U > UNDER 84.5  BET365