Holmey's $$$$ Thread SATURDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.27.16

$$$$ THREAD CONCEPT - This thread is for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this! If you have an area of expertise, please make some $$$$ choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "$$$$ PLAY". The difference between a PICK and a $$$$ PLAY is that a PICK is a game you like, a $$$$ PLAY is a game that you KNOW. If you are claiming your choice is a $$$$, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING - We will not track your $$$$ PLAY if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your $$$$ on the spreadsheet.

Only one $$$$  per day and a MAXIMUM of 4 per week. 

A week starts on Mon and ends on Sun.

- No buying points.

- No other "line-manipulations" like teasers, etc.

- No parlays

- No props

- $$$$ PLAYS need to be -129 or lower.  Anything -130 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the $$$$ doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

AND THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!

You must give an ORIGINAL explanation as to why you KNOW this $$$$ PLAY will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. DO NOT COPY YOUR WRITE-UPS! People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation.

FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR $$$$ PICK WILL GET TRACKED

Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

Just wanted to jump in and thank Holmey for organizing this thread, and everyone else's helpful picks and write ups.  Tough to have a bad night with all the insight on here!!  I mainly watch Big Ten College basketball and will jump in with a $$$$ only if I'm extremely confident. Thanks everyone!!

Great!  Welcome!  Always looking for conference-specific $$$$'ers!  Best-case scenario for the thread.  Good luck!

A few game left, but looking like another under .500 Friday fro the thread.  Let's shake it off and everyone find a winner on Saturday!

Good job, KC.  That is actually the point of the thread and why I track the $$$$'s.  Its very easy to get seduced by good writeups.  Sometimes the best writeups are losers.  But if you're selective on who you tail, you can really win here.  You can't just tail every $$$$ posted.  Good luck on Saturday too!

Hey Holmey. I do most of my due diligent capping at 1 am or later EST. My quiet time. I posted my first $$$$ for Saturday on your Friday thread. Would love it to be cut and pasted on todays thread. I dont feel like re doing the entire thing. My first play. I read and follow this thread every day. Can you get my play in todays line up??? If not, oh well

Hey Holmey, I'm from the way back machine aka CBS sports where we used to post. Anyway, love Santa Clara at home -1 1/2. UOZp played out of their mind and beat USF last home game. They will travel 2 hours and have a let down at Toso. GL I ll comeback thru...

Strong lean on St. Mary's -8 1/2 at San Francisco. Maybe I'm missing something, but St. Mary's fighting for a NCAA berth and are highly motivated to win out. Already beat by SF by 22 this season. Will look into further to see if this is the money play. I think St. Mary's easily covers this number.

Look for a major let down for UCRiverside.

England Championship: Rotherham vs Brentford 

Will be on IPFW -1....... Just hope I wake up in time to post a write up

$$$$ George Washington

That should say $$$$ GW even

$$$$ Plays YTD: 6 - 2
$$$$ Plays this week: 3 - 0

Was going over all the SEC games this morning and this one actually caught my eye.  I am going to move over to the Big East and invade DC for the Butler v Georgetown game. This contest tips off at noon EST on CBS.

Butler is, according to Jerry Palm, on that proverbial fence,bubble (whatever term floats your boat). The Bulldogs have a 4-1 record vs teams that have a RPI between 51-100.  The Hoyas sit at 91 which will improve, or add to Butlers case.  In 4 of the last 6 games, the Bulldogs have scored 81,87,88 & 89.  They are shooting at a 43% 3 pt clip over their last 5 & 38% for the season. The 3 headed Bulldog of Martin, Dunham & Jones have been quite a formidable trio this season. Add to those 3, Chrabascz & all have scored 20+ vs the Hoyas.

Hoyas are shooting 30% from 3 in their last 5 & 35% for the season. Georgetown holds a 3-7 record their last 10.  That includes losing 3 straight and 6 of their last 7.

In their previous meeting this year, Butler prevailed 87-76 @ home as a 4 point favorite. That game flew over the total of 143.5. Butler has the edge in every shooting category except FT.  I actually have 2 $$$$ picks on this game but can only use 1.

My $$$$ play is on the Butler Bulldogs -2.

I also love the Butler team total over. However it is not out yet at my book.  I will post that play later with that total. Going for a sweep this week in my 4 $$$$ plays and am riding the Bulldog wave.

As always, GLTA

 

Hey guys I just wanted to add some input on the IPFW game today.  IUPUI beat IPFW earlier this year with a last second shot but absolutely dominated the game leading by 17 points in the 2nd hald.  This is a rivalry game.  IUPUI is at home. It is senior night. IPFW is guaranteed the #1 Seed in the tournament.  Will IPFW play to better their overall record with hopes that a loss in the Summit  Conf Tourney Championship would lead to an at large bid?  Will IPFW spread the minutes around more than usual to get everyone some work and reduce injury chances on starters?

Great angle on that game Bubba. I had Mastadons as an early lean. I looked into the game more agree with your statements. Im off this game.

Hey Dawg,

I don't normally bet a sport I don't know but will tail you for a small amount on the soccer game. Thanks for the tip.

@Bubba, any golf match plays today?

@RF Dawg .. Blind tail for me as well

I just want to say thanks to USC_Homley. Appreciate you putting this thing together last two nights have been good for me but as you said it sort of depends on who a guy decides to tail. Looking forward to today and can't wait to read some guys thoughts.

@USC_Holmey, you're the man for putting this together.  This is my first year legit sports betting.  I came across this thread this week and have been feeling it out with the folks to really tail.  Love all the insights to the picks.  Thanks again for doing this, I'm hopeful I can contribute something soon.

I don't have enough time to properly cap these early games but my initial lean was on Notre Dame.   Also like the Dallas Stars/New York Rangers Over. Heading out the door.  Hoping I can find a $$$$ tonight or tomorrow.  

@ Easy,

I was capping that game early this morning & had a lean on the under if total was 142 or below. I guess 141.5 fits that criteria. The total has not come out at my book yet.  I agree here completely.  Leaning Ole Miss + 3.5 as well.

GL

8-6 $$$$
9-2 NBA
7-2 no$$$$

For the nba

I like memphis again.  Why you say?  Well didn't they smoked out them lakers last night?  Well here they are again, playing against a team that is worst than them lakers. 

The suns lost 13 previous straight games in a row.  They are 3-33 SU their last 36 previous games. 

Here is the best kicker.  The suns shoots 53% from the foul line.  So the spread in this game is +6.5 for the suns.  All we need is for the suns to go to the foul line and miss about 7 free throws and there goes your cover. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are:

• 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
• 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game

The Phoenix Suns are:

• 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. Western Conference.
• 6-18 ATS in their last 24 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Give me Memphis -6.5