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Holmey's $$$$ Thread FRIDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.04.16

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by iamsok:

This will be my first $$$$ pick on here. 

WGC Cadillac Championship 2nd Round Matchups

Whats great about Round 2 in all golf tournaments? It's that the pairing for betting purposes is always the same as Round 1. Rounds 3 and 4 pairings are based on players with similar scores leading up to 3rd and 4th round. This is why I LOVE betting on round 2 in ANY golf tournaments. You can really see who played well against their playing partner in round 1and decide the matchup you want to bet on. Here are my picks for Round 2. BTW I was 5 for 6 on Round 1. Documented in the Pro Golf forums. 

$$$$Phil Mickelson ML (-137)$$$$ vs. JB Holmes
This is by far my favorite pick and my $$$$ for the day. Phil was having so much fun out there. Currently he’s only 1 shot behind the leader, so he will be gunning to catch that #1 spot moving into Saturday. When Phil starts draining his putts, its dangerous for the rest of the field. Round 1 he did just that. On the front 9 (he started from the back, so the front was actually his back 9) he had a CLEAN card. 4 Birdies and 5 pars. His shots onto the green were dead on, and of course his short game was ON POINT. If thats not enough for you to back Phil, lets take a look at JB Holmes. Holmes was actually runner up last year finishing 2nd behind Dustin Johnson. But right now, it doesn’t seem like the same course for JB. He had more bogeys than birdies, 5 to 2 and that doesn’t even include the double he had on 14th. 

Jason Dufner ML (-124) vs Robert Streb
I don’t normal bet on Dufner. But man after watching his performance in round 1, I just had to take him for round 2. For the day Dufner made a total of 190ft in putts. THATS OUTRAGEOUS. He had a total of 7 birdies, compared to Streb’s 2. This means Dufner really knows where to score out on the course. Streb played a very safe round. 2 birdies, 2 bogeys finishing even for the day. 

Adam Scott ML (-104) vs Dustin Johnson
Adam Scott coming off a win last week, played well. Could have done better. Opened the round with an eagle and then went bogey, bogey. So he did leave 2 shots on the course, leaving those easy par conversions. At that point his game changed. Started pin seeking, making par saves, and then finished last two holes birdie, birdie. Solid. Dustin Johnson, first off is not clutch. Also he is just too long for this course. Yes he can get to many of the longer par5 in two, but Trump National Doral is more about accuracy and draining putts. Both of which DJ didnt seem to have in round 1. Currently Scott(-4) DJ(E)



Nice write up. I want to tail you. I don't know any much about golf and I want to make sure I pick the 'right' bet...For Phil Mickelson I see 2nd Round 3 Ball with a third golfer name Kisner with Holmes. Is that what I should be looking for? 
 
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Posted: #27
$$$$ Texas -4      
Texas vs Oklahoma state

I watch quite a bit of college basketball and the two leagues i follow closest are pac 12 and the big 12.  Big 12 because my buddies favorite team is kansas and i hate them with a passion.  Friendly rivalry.  Texas started off the year pretty dreadful losing 3 of their first 5 games.  Since then they have won 17 out of 25 games.  They have done that in arguably the toughest conference in the nation, which is pretty impressive since they play a true round robin regular season.  Texas has really turned it on as of late prior to running into a red hot kansas team that stomped them at home.  It was an embarrassing loss, especially for their last home game of the season.  Luckily that loss won a lot of people money on this thread!  Despite that loss Texas has been playing pretty solid ball.  Most recent were two impressive wins over oklahoma and west virgina.  They're going to be looking for a big bounce back game heading into the big 12 tournament and march madness.  If anyone knows how to get his team playing well for the tournament it's Shaka.  I think Texas is going to rebound here in a big way.  
Especially against a Oklahoma state that is struggling to say the least.  They have had a rough year. They have been playing with out a full deck all year.  Losing forte and evans killed their hopes and more recently they played against iowa state without hammond and carroll.  Both of their statuses are uncertain as of now, but missing a game and then coming back to play an angry texas team could get ugly.  They have no hope to make the tournament unless they miraculously win the big 12 tournament which i would bet the house on.  I don't  know what motivation they'll have for this game.  It's the last game of the season, last home game and they have three seniors.  That's the only thing i can think of.  there's even talk of their head coach being fired.  I look for them to come out deflated with no purpose for a win.  Texas is the team with something to prove.  Texas -4 
hook em horns!  GL all!
 
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Posted: #28
Princeton @ Harvard

Going back to the same theory I used for the past two nights picks of Fresno st and Cal.  Last 5 games--- Princeton shooting the ball great, FG % north of 50, shooting it great from downtown.  More importantly, the defense has really stepped up, especially out at the 3 point line where opponents are shooting under 28%. Really love that about this Princeton team.  Guard Tommy McCarthy questionable for Harvard tonight with concussion symptoms.  He's had a couple of very nice games for Harvard recently.  Big loss if he is out.  Take care of the basketball and I like Harvard to cruise to a double digit win tonight

$$$$ play

Princeton -6
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Matt2688:

Princeton @ Harvard

Going back to the same theory I used for the past two nights picks of Fresno st and Cal.  Last 5 games--- Princeton shooting the ball great, FG % north of 50, shooting it great from downtown.  More importantly, the defense has really stepped up, especially out at the 3 point line where opponents are shooting under 28%. Really love that about this Princeton team.  Guard Tommy McCarthy questionable for Harvard tonight with concussion symptoms.  He's had a couple of very nice games for Harvard recently.  Big loss if he is out.  Take care of the basketball and I like Harvard to cruise to a double digit win tonight

$$$$ play

Princeton -6

Harvard cruising to a double digit win yet takes Princeton -6 
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by peekay89:

Quote Originally Posted by Matt2688:

Princeton @ HarvardGoing back to the same theory I used for the past two nights picks of Fresno st and Cal.  Last 5 games--- Princeton shooting the ball great, FG % north of 50, shooting it great from downtown.  More importantly, the defense has really stepped up, especially out at the 3 point line where opponents are shooting under 28%. Really love that about this Princeton team.  Guard Tommy McCarthy questionable for Harvard tonight with concussion symptoms.  He's had a couple of very nice games for Harvard recently.  Big loss if he is out.  Take care of the basketball and I like Harvard to cruise to a double digit win tonight$$$$ playPrinceton -6
Harvard cruising to a double digit win yet takes Princeton -6
if you don't have anything positive to say why comment?
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by KEYWEST:

Harvard cruising to a double digit win yet takes Princeton -6 if you don't have anything positive to say why comment?

Calm down big nose 
 
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Posted: #32
I see this isn't the only thread you been trolling keywest 
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by peekay89:

Quote Originally Posted by KEYWEST:

Harvard cruising to a double digit win yet takes Princeton -6 if you don't have anything positive to say why comment?
Calm down big nose

You are everything bad about covers. Go away!!
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by peekay89:

I see this isn't the only thread you been trolling keywest
You call it trolling, I call it tailing top quality cappers and winning money
 
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Posted: #35
Stop pretending you're some big shot on an online forum.

No one cares about you, or me, or anyone else here. 

Wake up to yourself please. 
 
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Posted: #36
Best not to comment on a clown like that guy. Keep is rolling guys with those lock picks. We're all in it to make money and tune out the BS.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by REDXFF7:

Best not to comment on a clown like that guy. Keep is rolling guys with those lock picks. We're all in it to make money and tune out the BS.
I agree with you 100%
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by donkey_dealer08:


Only game I can find is Leuven  and Gent. Sorry I know nothing about soccer
What book are you using as not all books carry the league that this game is in
 
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Posted: #39

First go at this $$$ play on Jamie Donaldson -120 vs Scott Piercy.

This is Piercy's first go at the Blue Monster and I think he wakes up from yesterday. His previous form coming in includes cut at Honda, 45th at Phoenix and 67th at Framers. Last 6 rounds before yesterday 79,78,72,65,73 and 73. Donaldson has faired fine at Doral with a 2nd place finish 2 years ago. I also like Brooks Kopeka -135 over Oosthuizen but I think the rule is -129 or better 

 
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Posted: #40
We hit yesterday with Houston winning outright at home against Cincy. Tonight for my second $$$$ play of the week, we will take 
Yale -11 @ Cornell. This is an important game for Yale. They cannot look ahead for tomorrow night's showdown at Columbia. With Princeton 1/2 a game back in the conference standings, I like Yale to be intrinsically motivated to keep that distance by putting Cornell away early.
This is a game that got ugly quick @ Yale in February. Yale outshot (46% to 33%) Cornell from the field, basically grabbed all the rebounds (56 to 22), and assisted on 21 of 30 made shots. I like this team, their defensive acumen, and their experience. Looking for a 72-60 win for the Bulldogs. 
 
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by RGBRGB:



Nice write up. I want to tail you. I don't know any much about golf and I want to make sure I pick the 'right' bet...For Phil Mickelson I see 2nd Round 3 Ball with a third golfer name Kisner with Holmes. Is that what I should be looking for? 

 

Like that Dufner pick. He has been playing well this year

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by GoodTimes_SD:

TicketAccepted DateRiskTo WinStatusWager******3/4/16 1:27am$297.50$250.00Pending3/4/16 2:00pm  Holland Soccer  1957 Ajax II (HOL-2)/Almere City (HOL-2) Over 3 -119*  Bobada has it at -120 as well.


I just want to say thanks to everyone. I went 5-0 last night and a lot is owed to you guys. 3 of the 5 plays I was leaning but it's nice to be reassured by reading write ups from other people. So thanks for this thread and this site. Great idea for everyone to prosper some. I woke up late today and just laid 264.00 on the soccer over play. It's risen -134 but still played. 264 to win 194. Good luck guys!!!
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by steelersbets:

We hit yesterday with Houston winning outright at home against Cincy. Tonight for my second $$$$ play of the week, we will take 
Yale -11 @ Cornell. This is an important game for Yale. They cannot look ahead for tomorrow night's showdown at Columbia. With Princeton 1/2 a game back in the conference standings, I like Yale to be intrinsically motivated to keep that distance by putting Cornell away early.
This is a game that got ugly quick @ Yale in February. Yale outshot (46% to 33%) Cornell from the field, basically grabbed all the rebounds (56 to 22), and assisted on 21 of 30 made shots. I like this team, their defensive acumen, and their experience. Looking for a 72-60 win for the Bulldogs. 

I'm on this as well. Cornell 1-4 ATS at home against Ivy opponents, their one cover being by 0.5 points against Harvard. Yale is 4-0 ATS as a favorite on the road in Ivy. Bulldogs cover and then some in a warm up for Columbia.

 
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Posted: #44
Anybody have any thoughts on the shockers -15.5? Wichita State has had a week to prepare for this game. They have handled Loyola by double digits in all their previous matchups and Loyola just played lasy night and struggled vs a horrible Bradley team. 15.5 is a lot but Wichita St is a solid team that I see winning by 20+. Am I missing anything here?
 
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Posted: #45
Good morning guys.started contributing to the thread this week, 2-0 on my $$$$ plays, and 3-0 overall. Didn't like anything yday, but trailed drake under, so thanks bubba! Another $$$$ for me today, as I look at the board one game sticks out for me. We're headed back to the Mid-American conference, out in Oxford, Ohio as Ohio visits Miami (ohio).

Let's start with Miami Ohio, a team that was reeling before rattling off 3 straight wins. Very impressive wins at that. @buffalo(best home court in mid American imo), and then Kent and Akron at home. Easy wins at that. Tonight is their senior night, and they will try to continue the win streak. They are currently playing for a 10 or 11 seed in the conf tourney. But now let's look at the other side. Ohio, sitting in second in the eastern division of the conference, and one of the better teams in the mid American all year. A team that easily beat LSU by 8. Sure they are coming in against a senior night, a night in which Miami Ohio will also honor their mid American teams that won the conference tourney in the late 50's. So yes this crowd should be rocking. Ohio has lost two straight, and need this game for seeding in conf tourney. They beat Miami Ohio 76-64 a month ago at home, have dominated the all time series, and have won 9 of last 10 match ups. They have no injuries and are fully healthy. I think this line is giving Miami too much credit for their recent good play, as they have been nothing special all year. 10-7 at home doesn't scare me here either, Vegas trapping us doesn't scare me either. I just think the line is -2 bc Ohio has lost two straight, Miami has 3 straight quality wins, senior night, and bc Miami at home is much better then on the road. So we get Ohio -2 instead of -4 to -5.5. I'll take it, and I'll take the road team, the better team.

Holmey please give me my 3rd $$$$ play, Ohio -2

Good luck today boys

Ps, I'm also laying some juice on the Dallas Stars. It's -220 ml, but may play that and -1.5. They have been reeling and absolutely NEED to get back on track tonight at home, against the Devils. Just an FYI for anyone looking for a possible play
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by RGBRGB:



Nice write up. I want to tail you. I don't know any much about golf and I want to make sure I pick the 'right' bet...For Phil Mickelson I see 2nd Round 3 Ball with a third golfer name Kisner with Holmes. Is that what I should be looking for? 

No, not 3 ball. There should be matchup with just Phil vs Holmes. 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by PurdueKu:

Anybody have any thoughts on the shockers -15.5? Wichita State has had a week to prepare for this game. They have handled Loyola by double digits in all their previous matchups and Loyola just played lasy night and struggled vs a horrible Bradley team. 15.5 is a lot but Wichita St is a solid team that I see winning by 20+. Am I missing anything here?

You would certainly think they would win by at least 20 wouldn't you....unfortunately I don't have a line on this one yet. 


 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by jbl:

First go at this $$$ play on Jamie Donaldson -120 vs Scott Piercy.

This is Piercy's first go at the Blue Monster and I think he wakes up from yesterday. His previous form coming in includes cut at Honda, 45th at Phoenix and 67th at Framers. Last 6 rounds before yesterday 79,78,72,65,73 and 73. Donaldson has faired fine at Doral with a 2nd place finish 2 years ago. I also like Brooks Kopeka -135 over Oosthuizen but I think the rule is -129 or better 


By no means am I trying to bash on your pick. I personally disagree with your conclusion on picking Donaldson over Piercy. You are absolutely correct about the past 6 rounds, however to bet against a tournament leader is just foolish in my opinion. Albeit it was only round 1, you should have seen the way he was making his putts. I just believe there are better picks out there today than Donaldson over Piercy. Another point I want to get across. Yes, Donaldson may have been runner up 2 years ago, but guess what? DJ won last year, Holmes was runner up last year. Doesnt stop me from betting against them. Doral is one of the toughest courses with the toughest competition. This is the only tournament with no 'cuts'. 
 
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Posted: #49

Good discussions today, guys.  Gonna get to work catching up on the $$$$'s and will get a Standings post up in a couple hours.

Good luck today everyone!

 
 
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Posted: #50
For the Texas backers, what do you know on Isaiah Taylor status? I thought he was hindered with plantar faciaitis.
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