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Fishy Line of the Day

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Macwestie1

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Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 171315

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 11:36 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by hagrin:

Fishy Line of the Day Tracking:

Underdog: 6-2

Favorite: 2-6

Line Move Direction: 5-2 with 1 game no real move either way

Road Dog: 4-2

Home Dog: 2-0

Unranked vs Ranked: 3-0

# Games Within +/- 3 Points of Line: 1 out of 8

Recap: Tonight is a perfect example of why I'm not a tout, I'm just a guy with a computer and people need to remember that before tailing blindly.

Depending on what number you got, you either won, lost or pushed with Hofstra, but I marked it as a loss since I posted at 9.5 and they lost by the hook. This was a tie game with about 6 minutes left, 4 points with 2 minutes left and GMU just closed out well. Still feel like the system picked properly here.

I think the system failed UMass and St Bonnies. In another thread, a user JFen alerted me to a tempo play style with UMass at home and when I started looking at the numbers it was clearly obvious that when they play at home vs good competition that makes them play slightly slower, they actually play better than the frenetic pace of their losses. They play closer to 60s, lower 70s in their best wins and they play faster in their losses (tempo stats by KenPom). My system doesn't account for tempo at all and that seems to be where the failure is. I'm not sure how to account for this and how to remove these plays from getting flagged incorrectly so I am open to advice.

Again, please don't tail blindly, I'm just a guy with a computer and obviously, I'm still working out the kinks.

Hagrin Chill your info was very informative I had St. Bonnies shit happens man

Just keep doing what you do mah man

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!

TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 55658

Posted: Feb. 8, 2012 - 11:46 PM ET #52

You are basically 6-1-1 thus far, thats fuckin solid.

Cant let one play get you head down cause you aint gonna win them all. You've been pretty dead on. Road dogs are a bit tougher to nail. Keep up the good work.

WizrduvOdz

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 3164

Posted: Feb. 9, 2012 - 1:05 AM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by 3DimesBook:

Hagrin,

This is a neophyte question BUT would you mind making very clear exactly which side that your system is recommending until I get more familiar to your system's analysis and your programming technique?

Thanks so much for your input.

It always helps to have a slight edge againt the books in my area and I use all of the intelligence that I can garner!!!

His system is basically favoring the dogs. IMHO, of course.

Hagrin, thanks for the input and research. Still up to us to make our plays, but your info is strong

hagrin

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Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 1481

Posted: Feb. 9, 2012 - 1:05 PM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by WizrduvOdz:

His system is basically favoring the dogs. IMHO, of course.

This is 100% correct. I'll pull the curtain back for a second - my ultimate goal with this was to see if I could predict underdog winners which is why that stat is conspicuously missing from my recap stats. :)

2/9/2012 - Illinois @ Indiana

Opening Line: -8 in a lot of places.

Current Line: As low as -6 in some places, but you can get -7 still in some books. Using -7 to grade this play.

Why Fishy?: Disclosure - I had Indiana circled as a play before I ran the sims, disappointed by the sim result sigh. KenPom predicted 11, I predicted 12(!), slight consensus on Indiana and huge move downwards already. However, one thing to note, this did not fit the Luck flag that I added what seems like a week ago. The system flag this because Indiana

Now, since this didn't match the Luck flag, please please please don't tail, I'm posting this only for informational and tracking purposes. I don't want anyone to lose money especially with my "eye test" telling me Indiana needs this one to go above .500 in the conference this year and should blow Illinois out and I have every intention of probably wagering money on Indiana.

hagrin

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Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 1481

Posted: Feb. 9, 2012 - 1:06 PM ET #55

Ugh, want to buy - edit button. Repost -

2/9/2012 - Illinois @ Indiana

Opening Line: -8 in a lot of places.

Current Line: As low as -6 in some places, but you can get -7 still in some books. Using -7 to grade this play.

hagrin

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 1481

Posted: Feb. 10, 2012 - 12:01 AM ET #56

Fishy Line of the Day Tracking:

Underdog: 6-3

Favorite: 3-6

Line Move Direction: 5-3 with 1 game no real move either way

Road Dog: 4-3

Home Dog: 2-0

Unranked vs Ranked: 3-1

# Games Within +/- 3 Points of Line: 1 out of 9

Recap: Disastrous. Eye test told me this would be an Indiana blowout and the system failed miserably. Really don't have much to say about this one, starting to think this isn't anything better than a coin flip system that got off to a hot start. 0 for last 3 now with 2 picks that I knew better than to select. Ugh.

What makes this even more discouraging is the line dipped in any book that had 6.5 to 6 45 minutes prior to tip so I was sure the system predicted the continued line movement while getting the best number for a winner.

Blaaaaaah. Commence insults.

boomersooner13

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Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 10, 2012 - 10:18 AM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by hagrin:

You obviously didn't comprehend a single word I have written - I've pretty much spelled out this point in 40+ posts, but thanks for playing. The fact you even mention buying points shows you're beyond help anyways and you should probably go read POY threads.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

#1. The fact that you call these "fishy" lines is the best part.

#2. I bought 1/2 point in a game on wednesday (James Madison, to be exact) when they were +7. So I had JMU +7.5 to win 3 units. I went on to win that wager and I'll let you have one guess why I won.

#3. "Beyond Help" is almost perfect for you. You played Hofstra AND St. Bon in the same night. Hofstra dropped what, 2 points from opening line to closing? You are so naiive that you don't even realize that the reason it dropped so much was because the line WAS at 11 and that's when the sharps knew it was "too much". If you had the right tracking tools and were smart enough, you would've seen that the line STAYED at 9.5/9 (depending on your book) since 10 o'clock THAT MORNING. I mean come on, you've got to be smarter than that when using this method.

So please, don't tell someone who has been using this method for years and has it down MUCH better than you to "look at POY" threads or shit like that.

boomersooner13

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 10, 2012 - 10:23 AM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by hagrin:

Recap: Disastrous. Eye test told me this would be an Indiana blowout and the system failed miserably. Really don't have much to say about this one, starting to think this isn't anything better than a coin flip system that got off to a hot start. 0 for last 3 now with 2 picks that I knew better than to select. Ugh.

Blaaaaaah. Commence insults.

and please, for the love of God, DO NOT CALL THIS A SYSTEM.

This is a method that A TON of cappers use when making their plays. The fact that you are calling it a "system" or taking credit for creating it is unbelievable and adds to my statement in my previous post that you are just that naiive.

But don't say that this method is no good. I use it all the time and it works wonderfully. If you'd like my sources and maybe a little reasoning/"coaching" behind some of the mistakes you've made, send me a friend request and we can converse over PM's. Because like I said, this is a very, very strong method that many people use and it has paid off very well for me, so I don't mind helping a fellow capper out (since I had no idea what I was doing with it when I first started). I'll look forward to hearing from you