Fishy Line of the Day

Question

I don&#x27;t like posting plays because I&#x27;m not a tout and, well, unless you follow someone 100% of the time, your record never matches the tout&#x27;s record. So, instead, with my custom built system here, I wanted to post a new segment called Fishy Line of the Day. I have no idea what the results will yield, but I&#x27;ll keep this thread updated and see if my system is onto something. (Background - 33yo programmer, system is based mainly on metrics, but I continually adjust weights on certain factors through my own analysis as opposed to other systems that don&#x27;t adjust weights on the fly. Have also done Synergy video logging (Level 2)). 2/1/2012 - Boise State @ San Diego StateOpening line: 12.5 to 13Why Fishy: Immediately bet down to 10.5 is some places, line keeps pushing up some and gets hammered back down almost immediately. Yet, almost 62% of action is on SDST. KenPom has this capped at a 13 point margin. Current Line: 11, MLs of ~&#x2B;500/-700Not saying what side will win here, but the line has a pretty strong body odor. Good luck to all.

hagrin · Answer

I don&#x27;t like posting plays because I&#x27;m not a tout and, well, unless you follow someone 100% of the time, your record never matches the tout&#x27;s record. So, instead, with my custom built system here, I wanted to post a new segment called Fishy Line of the Day. I have no idea what the results will yield, but I&#x27;ll keep this thread updated and see if my system is onto something. (Background - 33yo programmer, system is based mainly on metrics, but I continually adjust weights on certain factors through my own analysis as opposed to other systems that don&#x27;t adjust weights on the fly. Have also done Synergy video logging (Level 2)). 2/1/2012 - Boise State @ San Diego StateOpening line: 12.5 to 13Why Fishy: Immediately bet down to 10.5 is some places, line keeps pushing up some and gets hammered back down almost immediately. Yet, almost 62% of action is on SDST. KenPom has this capped at a 13 point margin. Current Line: 11, MLs of ~&#x2B;500/-700Not saying what side will win here, but the line has a pretty strong body odor. Good luck to all.

dmfan21 · Answer

I definately feel the same way... You would think since sdsu is at home, off a drubbing by colo st, that it would continually go in their favor..  Also, boise is really young and pretty much garbage in their garbage conference.  Game says stay away

hagrin · Answer

Fishy Line of the Day Tracking:Underdog: 1-0Favorite: 0-1Line Move Direction: 1-0Road Dog: 1-0Road Favorite: 0-0Unranked vs Ranked: 1-0Recap: Seems as if many experts believe that SDST is playing above their talent level right now so this may have been a play based on the fact that the line was set at simulations levels based on efficiency, but cappers don&#x27;t believe SDST can keep up that pace. My system had capped this game at 13.5 and the immediate 3 point swing from my number flagged this game. I&#x27;ll continue to look for such discrepancies and immediate line moves.

hagrin · Answer

2/2/2012 - Utah State @ NevadaOpening Line: -9.5Why Fishy: This line was almost instantly bet down to 8 and I would expect it to continue lower tomorrow even though consensus has this at over 61% for Nevada right now. In addition, KenPom has this game at a 7 point margin so Vegas tried to set this line higher because Nevada already beat USU by 7 this year 78-71. Also odd, and I don&#x27;t play totals (just look at my record I&#x27;m putrid at totals), but the total has been bet down from 133 to 131.5 already. My system put this game closer to 7 points than the original 9.5. Current Line: -8 to -8.5 some places.Again, not picking a side, just publicly tracking how my system performs against "flagged" line moves. Best of luck to all. PS - And, since I have been there in person for this once, no USU thread should go without this most awesome tradition - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44YUnOoye58

sshhhcalmdown · Answer

would u agree that the lines aren&#x27;t seeing that much money to "be bet down " per say maybe they fucked up but definately not getting bet down this early

hagrin · Answer

Quick Update: This line has continued to move in the direction predicted earlier as we're seeing 7.5s now.

Quote Originally Posted by sshhhcalmdown:

would u agree that the lines aren't seeing that much money to "be bet down " per say maybe they fucked up but definately not getting bet down this early

Well, the only people "line hunting" that early are sharps. The public isn't even awake or done looking through all the lines yet by the time this line in particular had moved. That said, if the line was a "mistake", then you would see the line move down AND you would see most of the action on the side towards the line movement. However, in this case, over 66% of the bets placed are on Nevada.

This line continues to have a ripening odor.

hagrin · Answer

Fishy Line of the Day Tracking:Underdog: 2-0Favorite: 0-2Line Move Direction: 2-0Road Dog: 2-0Road Favorite: 0-0Unranked vs Ranked: 1-0# Games Within &#x2B;/- 3 Points of Line: 0 out of 2Recap: Wow, did this line stink. Not only was the side line bet down hard by big money, but even the total was bet down hard as well and both hit pretty easily. As for the recap why, this seems to have been a straight fade of Nevada having been perfect in conference, a ridiculously high Luck rank in KenPom and possibly that their first meeting with USU was close to the slowest tempo they played all year and much slower than most of their other games by a decent margin. I&#x27;m definitely adding in a filter tonight to add an additional flag to games with weird line movements in the opposite direction of teams with high luck scores. Also, of note, Utah St. had one of the worst luck ranks in KenPom - could have been a straight system play based on teams overachieving and underachieving in actual record vs expected.

GWarner27 · Answer

I&#39;ll be following this system closely.

hagrin · Answer

2/3/2012 - No Official Fishy Lines for TodaySmall card, nothing got flagged by my system as "fishy". One note though, the Harvard/Cornell O/U has moved 6 points since it was originally posted from 119 to 125. This isn&#x27;t a play though since the majority of action is on the Over, and well, my system blows at successfully predicting O/Us. Best of luck to everyone - I&#x27;ll be interested in the Harvard game total for sure.

hagrin · Answer

Fishy Line of the Day Tracking:Underdog: 2-0Favorite: 0-2Line Move Direction: 2-0Road Dog: 2-0Road Favorite: 0-0Unranked vs Ranked: 1-0# Games Within &#x2B;/- 3 Points of Line: 0 out of 2Recap: So, there were no official plays for today with my system - nothing stood out from my projected outcome, KenPom projected outcome, line movement and consensus play. However, we did see a 6 point line move in the Harvard game which hit. While my system totally sucks for totals (I&#x27;m off by 10&#x2B; points a lot), I think the rationale here was that Harvard seems to get sped up by teams that play faster tempos (see the Seattle game where Seattle is #2 in AdjTempo and they played to a 70 that game). This does make me want to track something - if a slow team plays a fast team, I hypothesize Vegas tends to set the O/U line closer to the better team&#x27;s tempo, but I need to crunch those numbers later. Obviously, you don&#x27;t need any system to realize that a 6 point swing in a line requires some serious pounding to one side and the consensus was still on the Over side even after I&#x27;m sure some sharps pounded the 6 point middle. The system takes longer to sim for Saturdays, but I hope to have something posted in an hour or two.

hagrin · Answer

2/4/2012 - Idaho @ NevadaOpening Line: -9.5Current Line: -9.5Why Fishy?: Here we go again with Nevada. Nevada has a huge consensus on it again today, but the line has basically not budged. If you look at the line movements, Nevada got as big as an 11 point favorite and that got hammered right back down again. This looks like a total "sharps bet one way to get a better number the other way" type play. This also got flagged by my new filter of high KenPom luck teams playing low luck teams and the line moving towards the low luck team and reverse of consensus. Good luck to everyone today. PS - Unfortunately, the wife took me antique shopping this morning, but two other plays that the system had identified were Baylor @ OSU and Delaware @ JMU. I only mention it here just in case people are trying to figure out how I&#x27;m flagging only certain games and were wondering why I didn&#x27;t post these. They obviously will not count in the stats. Baylor was flagged due to the -7, line move down, high consensus with my system thinking it should have been closer to 8 and JMU was -5.5, went to -3.5, huge consensus and I had Delaware actually winning while KenPom had this a 1 point game.

hagrin · Answer

Slight correction: The opening line was -10.5, not -9.5. Sorry about that.

hagrin · Answer

Sigh, I was right the first time, only some books opened with 10.5 later. Grrrrrr. We did buy an antique dog house though if anyone was wondering. FML.

hagrin · Answer

Adding:2/4/2012 - Creighton @ Northern IowaOpening Line: Anywhere from -2 to -2.5Current Like: -1.5 most books, -1 some places. Why Fishy?: Don&#x27;t have much time to explain, but my system has Creighton as a 5 point favorite, KenPom has it as a 3, Creighton a huge consensus play and yet the line movement is away from all those factors. This is also another big high luck vs low luck team with the line moving towards low luck side (KenPom luck being actual win % vs expected). Good luck to everyone.

Packers83 · Answer

I like the idea, so far so good.  Lets "Vandal"ize the wolf pack tonight!!

hagrin · Answer

Fishy Line of the Day Tracking:Underdog: 4-0Favorite: 0-4Line Move Direction: 4-0Road Dog: 3-0Home Dog: 1-0Unranked vs Ranked: 2-0# Games Within &#x2B;/- 3 Points of Line: 0 out of 4Recap: System is looking good so far, but sample size obviously way too small. Wish I had gotten those other write-ups posted in time. I definitely feel as the sample size grows (i.e. # of games played), that the KenPom Luck ranking low vs high &#x2B; line movement &#x2B; unexpected line differential between my simulated plays seems pretty solid even theoretically. Makes sense - fading straight statistical analysis based on line movement, consensus and actual vs expected win rate. Ok, good luck to everyone tomorrow and enjoy the Super Bowl.

hagrin · Answer

2/5/2012 - Northwestern @ IllinoisOpening Line: -6 most booksCurrent Line: -5.5 most places, as low as -5 thoughWhy Fishy?: Sorry, don&#x27;t have much time to get into this one, but I have this as a 7.5 point game in my system, KenPom had 7, it opened most places at 6, it&#x27;s down to 5 in some books and the consensus is hugely on Illinois. This didn&#x27;t catch in the new Luck flag though, both teams have high luck scores. Good luck everyone.

CUbuff4life · Answer

Keep it up man !!

MikeMed · Answer

enjoy the thread

shadowman · Answer

Great work so far. I understan it&#x27;s only a small sample, but so far looking good!!!    thanks for sharing.

hagrin · Answer

Fishy Line of the Day Tracking:Underdog: 5-0Favorite: 0-5Line Move Direction: 5-0Road Dog: 4-0Home Dog: 1-0Unranked vs Ranked: 2-0# Games Within &#x2B;/- 3 Points of Line: 0 out of 5Recap: I didn&#x27;t get to watch the game yet, have it DVR&#x27;d, but was driving for the Super Bowl so I really don&#x27;t know if there was anything from the game that should be included here. It does seem like this is heading in the right direction, especially when the fishy line involves a road dog. Again, sample size is way too small right now to make any conclusions so only use this information as a potential guide, not to tail. Good luck everyone. I&#x27;ll post later if something gets flagged, I&#x27;m running behind today because of the Super Bowl.

hagrin · Answer

2/6/2012 - No Official Fishy Lines for TodayThat took all of 30 seconds, didn&#x27;t realize the card was so small. No system plays at all. Program exited early since it seems line moves coincide with consensus, no need to evaluate further. Good luck everyone today.

WizrduvOdz · Answer

Just asking, but the Mo/Okla game doesn&#x27;t fit into your system?Line opened at 7 in one book, 5.5 on some, and 4.5 on one or two. The 7 was put out the earliest, around 2:30 PM yesterday, and the lines were opened lower as the day went on.  Now set at 4.5, though it looks like most plays so far are on Mo.Just asking

WizrduvOdz · Answer

One more point.  Last game they played, 3 weeks ago in Missouri, Tigers won by 38, so even though game is in Okla, 4.5, or even 7 for that matter, is awfully low IMHO

Fishy Line of the Day

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